The overnight cryptocurrency market has once again shown a V-shaped rebound. Bitcoin briefly fell below its previous low after midnight on the 20th, reaching a low of 88,600, while Ethereum also dropped to around 2,870; subsequently, the market stabilized and rebounded. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin has returned to 92,000 USD, and Ethereum has also regained the 3,000 USD mark.

Secondly, the market is currently closely watching the upcoming US non-farm payroll report for September. If the data fluctuates significantly, it may trigger a new round of market volatility. Additionally, the US Labor Department has confirmed that it will not release the October non-farm data separately but will combine it for publication in December. US stocks also saw a rebound on Wednesday, despite the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicating that most members prefer to hold steady for the year, with the expectation of a rate cut in December dropping to about 33%. However, all four major indices still closed higher.

Bitcoin Four-Hour Chart

First, let's discuss the technical aspect. The market is currently in a converging state at the end of a trend, and it may choose a direction at any moment. The first point to look at is the Fibonacci retracement; the current price is sitting at a key area of the golden ratio. From the trend, Bitcoin has dropped from its previous high and is currently fluctuating around the 23.6% level, approximately at 91,270, with the key support level below at 0%, around 88,800. The current price is fluctuating around the 23.6% level, which is a typical action of "large trend end, small level consolidation." In simple terms, it is currently consolidating at the bottom, and once it breaks through the downward trend line with volume, the rebound space will be opened up.

Next, looking at the Bollinger Bands, they are clearly narrowing, with the upper band pressing down, the middle band turning downward, and the lower band moving slightly upward. The K-line frequently touches the lower band. This pattern is a typical "bears can't push down, bulls can't push up" end of a consolidation, and a direction may be chosen at any moment. The key is to closely monitor whether the K-line can effectively break above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, which is the white line; once it breaks through, Bitcoin will enter an accelerated rebound phase. Moreover, the downward pressure line coincides with the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, making the breakout point here.

Regarding MACD, currently, both DIF and DEA are below the zero axis, indicating an overall bearish trend. However, the recent MACD green histogram bars have shortened, and red bars are starting to appear, with DIF showing slight upward movement. This indicates that bearish strength is weakening, and bulls are quietly building strength. As long as the market breaks through the downward trend line with volume, MACD may soon form a golden cross and open upward. Currently, MACD is not strong but not bad either; it is in a low-level repair state before a major trend.

In terms of KDJ, it has formed a golden cross and is moving upward, with the K-line significantly rising, the D-line following suit, and the J value clearly increasing. This is a typical KDJ golden cross diverging upward, indicating that short-term bulls have the advantage. However, it is important to note that KDJ is a short-term indicator; if tonight's non-farm data is strongly stimulating, this signal may be instantly negated.

Looking at the downward trend line, the price is now approaching the end of this line, and every rebound touching the line has been pushed back, indicating that Bitcoin has reached the final point. A breakout or breakdown will accelerate quickly. This also needs to be considered in conjunction with tonight's non-farm data.

The non-farm data at 9:30 PM tonight is crucial. The market expects non-farm employment numbers to increase from the previous 22,000 to 50,000, with the unemployment rate expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%. Let me break it down: if the employment data is stronger than expected, the dollar may strengthen, and US stocks and Bitcoin are likely to drop initially because strong employment means a good economy, leading to a decrease in expectations for Fed rate cuts, putting pressure on risk assets. In this case, Bitcoin may first test the 88,800-89,000 range; if it stabilizes and then increases in volume, that would be a bullish opportunity. If the data is weaker than expected, Bitcoin is likely to rise directly, breaking through the downward trend line and standing above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, targeting the Fibonacci 38.2%, which is around 97,200; this trend is likely to form a V-shaped rebound.

In summary, Bitcoin is currently at the end of a triangular formation, and tonight's non-farm data is the key factor in determining the direction. Signals for an upward breakout include the K-line breaking the downward trend line, stabilizing above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, MACD forming a golden cross, and non-farm data being weak. The targets are 95,000, 97,300, and 102,000. The downside risk lies in the non-farm data being stronger than expected, breaking below 90,000, and testing the 88,800 support level. However, as long as it holds above 88,800, that would be a good buying point. Overall, the end of the consolidation combined with a slightly strong technical aspect, along with the non-farm data tonight, will determine the direction for a long time to come. As long as it does not break 88,800, I remain optimistic about Bitcoin's future rebound. If the data is weak, the breakout may come quickly, and there won't be many opportunities to get in. However, I also emphasize!!! Control your position! Set stop losses!

Giving you a hundred percent accurate suggestion is not as good as providing you with the correct mindset and trend. Teaching someone to fish is better than giving them fish; a suggestion may earn you a moment, but learning the mindset will earn you a lifetime!

Time of writing: (2025-11-20, 20:00)

(Written by - Master Coin) Disclaimer: There may be delays in online publication; the above suggestions are for reference only. Investment carries risks; please proceed with caution!

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