With the continuous breakthroughs in quantum technology, this field, regarded as cutting-edge research, is quietly changing the global perception of digital security. At the same time, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) are also being placed under the microscope: people are beginning to worry whether the foundation supporting Bitcoin's security can remain solid when quantum computing capabilities reach a certain critical point.

Recent advancements in quantum computing have made this discussion, which was originally theoretical, increasingly realistic, prompting the market, technology community, and investors to reassess Bitcoin's security boundaries in the upcoming technological wave.

Traditional computers use bits as the smallest unit of information, with each bit being either 0 or 1, performing calculations through combinations of these bits. In contrast, quantum computers use quantum bits (qubits), which possess two key characteristics:

Superposition: Quantum bits can exist in a superposition of both 0 and 1 states simultaneously. This means that a quantum bit can "try" both possibilities of 0 and 1 at the same time before being measured.

Entanglement: Quantum bits can form tight correlations, where the state of one quantum bit is dependent on the state of another, even if they are far apart. This correlation allows quantum bits to work together to process more complex information.

For example, quantum computing shows tremendous potential in tasks such as optimizing logistics routes and simulating molecular structures. Calculations that might take traditional computers years to complete could be done by quantum computers in just seconds or minutes. Additionally, quantum computers are better at handling probability and combinatorial problems because they can explore multiple possibilities simultaneously rather than trying them one by one in sequence.

To put it simply: traditional computers are like walking step by step through a maze, only able to choose one path at a time. Quantum computers, on the other hand, can move along all paths at once and find the optimal exit in a short time.

The security of Bitcoin relies on two core technologies: public-private key encryption and hash algorithms. Each Bitcoin address is backed by a private key, which users use to sign transactions, while the public key is used to verify transactions. Current encryption methods, such as the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA), are considered secure on classical computers because even the most powerful supercomputers would take an astronomical amount of time to exhaustively search for a private key.

However, as mentioned earlier, quantum computing can significantly accelerate certain computational processes. In particular, Shor's algorithm in quantum computing can factor large integers and break elliptic curve encryption in polynomial time, meaning that an attacker with sufficient quantum computing power could theoretically deduce the corresponding private key from a public Bitcoin key quickly, thereby controlling someone else's Bitcoin.

Although currently available quantum computers cannot accomplish this task, research indicates that once quantum hardware reaches the scale of millions of qubits, this threat will no longer be science fiction.

Théau Peronnin, CEO of Alice & Bob, stated in a recent interview with Fortune that current quantum technology is not yet a threat to cryptocurrencies, but the technology is rapidly approaching that point.

"In the foreseeable future, the development of quantum computers will still be very small and very slow, which is actually quite interesting. Quantum computing is an exponential acceleration, but if you zoom in on the exponential curve, the early changes are almost flat, and only at the critical point does it rise sharply. We are currently just at the turning point; today's quantum computers are not stronger than your smartphone. But in a few years, they will be stronger than the largest supercomputers ever."

He said, "The market may have a few years of safety, but I wouldn't hold onto Bitcoin. Essentially, by 2030, they will need to undergo a hard fork, as quantum computers will soon thereafter have the capability to pose a threat."

Once a Bitcoin transaction is confirmed and written into the blockchain, it cannot be changed, which ensures the security and trust of Bitcoin but also limits its ability to quickly upgrade encryption standards. Any significant changes involving post-quantum cryptography (PQC) require broad consensus among miners and users, a process that can be slow and contentious.

However, to address these challenges, Bitcoin is exploring a hybrid migration model that allows users to simultaneously use traditional ECDSA addresses and new PQC addresses, thereby enhancing security without disrupting the network. Despite the difficulties, Bitcoin developers have recognized the urgency of upgrading and are advancing gradual transition plans to ensure long-term security.

In recent years, the field of quantum computing has continued to achieve breakthrough advancements, with both hardware and algorithm technologies accelerating. For instance, a team from Caltech in the U.S. successfully built a 6100-qubit system using neutral atom technology and achieved a coherence time of 12.6 seconds at room temperature, laying the groundwork for fault-tolerant quantum computing.

At the same time, Google's "Quantum Echoes" algorithm, when run on its quantum chip, is 13,000 times faster than the fastest algorithms on classical supercomputers. Google stated that this breakthrough paves the way for practical applications of quantum technology within the next five years.

In terms of hardware technology, multiple technical routes, including superconducting and photonic technologies, are steadily advancing, supporting the scaling of qubits and improving computational accuracy. Both academia and industry are also intensifying their exploration of feasible paths to transition from Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) devices to true fault-tolerant quantum computers, including enhancing error correction capabilities and algorithm verifiability.

In the face of rapid developments in quantum technology, blockchain networks must continuously evolve to maintain security and integrity. Rapid adaptation is key: networks need to prioritize the introduction of PQC to address the impending quantum threat. At the same time, the decentralized nature of blockchain increases the difficulty of upgrades, requiring consensus among various stakeholders.

Original article: “The Quantum Era is Here: Can the Crypto Market Withstand the Test?”

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