Intraday Strategy: Continue to Short, Focus on High Shorts
Yesterday, the market once again reached a new low, breaking through the previous low.
Currently, Bitcoin is in a clear downtrend structure. This kind of market is inherently a trending market, and complex technical analysis is not necessary; just participate in the trend.
Regardless of whether you participated in long-term shorts in the previous stages, I have provided layout opportunities at these positions. If you followed along, you can still hold your shorts now.
Core of Trend Trading: Focus on Structure, Not Price
I have repeatedly mentioned a phrase:
"When trading trends, focus on structure, not price."
Do not rush to exit just because the price breaks below 90,000, dropping to 89,000 or 88,000.
Trend trades should be "passively exited"—wait until a true reversal signal appears in the structure before considering exiting.
If you exit actively based on price, you may easily miss the subsequent major downtrend, for example:
Running away as soon as the low is broken
Trying to protect profits by closing positions early after a sharp drop
As a result, you might miss the entire continuation of the trend afterward.
Why Can't You Randomly Go Long Now?
Many people have started trying to catch the bottom these days. For example, during the high position yesterday, many chose to go long, but the problem is:
At that time, there was no reversal structure observed
No key resistance was broken
The K-line showed no bullish signals
This kind of bottom fishing is more of a subjective judgment rather than a decision based on price action and structure.
In a trending market, if your analysis feels very laborious and complex, it actually indicates that you are leaning towards subjectivity and that you haven't truly seen the trend itself.
Why Do Moving Averages and Indicators "Seem" Accurate?
Many people believe that moving average systems are very accurate and have high returns. In fact, it is not that the moving averages themselves are strong, but that they align with the trend.
The essence of all systems is:
Find direction
Chase continuation
Once a trend emerges, a simple system can profit from it.
About V Reversal: V Reversal ≠ Reversal
A common example: a V reversal at the bottom is not a reversal; it is merely a correction.
The method of judgment is very simple:
If the previous low is tested twice without breaking → possible adjustment or reversal
If the previous low is broken on the second test → bearish structure continues
In a position like now, encountering resistance after a high rebound is a standard high short opportunity.
What Happens If You Go Long at Every V Reversal?
Many V reversals occur in a downtrend:
Highs are not exceeded
Lows are broken
A brief rise followed by another drop
If you treat every V reversal as a reversal to go long, it will be nearly impossible to survive in a continuous downtrend structure.
Similarly, there is no need to blindly place long orders at previous lows (such as 89,500 or 89,000). Although you might occasionally catch a rebound, this kind of uncertain gamble is unnecessary.
Some Say It Will Rise to 130,000?
I see some people calling for a rise to 130,000 from the current position, but there is no structural basis for it.
Pure speculation.
I mentioned on Monday that the 1.38 to 1.618 range of the 4-hour bearish extension is exactly at 89,000, which has indeed been reached. Therefore, the two possible scenarios I anticipated (a rebound followed by a drop, or a direct decline) are consistent with the current performance.
Ethereum Also Remains Weak
The structure of ETH is the same:
The rise is a slow upward phase (weak momentum)
The decline is a slow downward phase (bearish continuation)
Trendline positions will create resistance, and a rebound to the target remains a high short strategy.
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