Last night, Federal Reserve executive Barkin expressed agreement with Powell's view that "a rate cut in December is not a done deal," and refused to provide guidance for the December meeting. Currently, the market's expectation for a 25bp rate cut in December has risen from 42% to 49%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged stands at 51%. This 50-50 situation keeps the market cautious.
Last night, the ADP weekly report data showed that the situation for the four weeks leading up to November 1 was not optimistic, with companies continuing to lay off employees, leading to expectations of less-than-ideal employment data. The dollar fell back, and U.S. stocks also performed weakly.
After Bitcoin's sideways consolidation during the day yesterday, it rebounded during the evening trading session, reaching a high of around $93,700 in the early morning. However, this did not sustain, and it fell back in the morning, currently consolidating around $91,100.
From a technical perspective, the MACD indicator at the large cycle level remains bearish, although at the short cycle level, the hourly and four-hour indicators are currently showing a decrease in volume, indicating a demand for intraday correction. Although the downward trend has eased and there is a rebound, the prevailing panic sentiment, the Federal Reserve's indecision, and various disappointing economic data continue to undermine market confidence. Additionally, the continuous outflow of institutional funds over the past several days suggests that there will still be aftereffects in the short term, leading to insufficient buying momentum. Market sentiment is low, and I believe the current rebound will not be significant. The Asian and European sessions are expected to see a slight rebound after the morning's decline, followed by continued sideways consolidation. The short-term resistance remains at 94,500 and 96,500, while the short-term support is still at the 90,000 level.
Today's market will continue to focus on the speeches from Federal Reserve officials, and the Federal Reserve will also release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting in the early morning. Meanwhile, Trump has been active in recent days, which could directly stimulate market volatility, so be mindful of market fluctuations during this data period.
Short-term trading suggestions for Bitcoin:
Buy near the 89,500-90,500 area on a pullback, targeting 91,500-92,300.
Sell near the 94,000-94,500 area on a rebound, targeting 93,000-92,500.
Regarding Ethereum, the market's interconnectivity is significant, and the selling pressure triggered by the cooling expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut also affects Ethereum. In recent days, with continuous outflows of main funds, Ethereum broke below the 3,000 mark for the first time, hitting a low of around 2,950, a drop of over 35% from the early October high, with a correction greater than that of Bitcoin. However, after breaking below 3,000, the buying from major whales in the market has increased, providing some support for the coin price.
At the beginning of the month, I emphasized that resistance concentrated in the 3,600-3,800 range would be difficult to break through. This round of correction at the 3,000 dollar mark is a key support that needs to be closely monitored. Now that Bitcoin has broken 100,000 and is testing the low of 90,000, Ethereum is only just testing 3,000, showing relatively strong resilience. If it breaks below, it will further test the 2,800-2,400 range, at which point the market will completely turn, and this is a situation that major institutions do not want to see in the short term, so buying pressure will increase. From a technical perspective, the large cycle is adjusting and testing key levels, with the weekly and daily charts showing bearish dominance. The short-term four-hour and hourly levels are showing a decrease in volume, which will accompany a demand for rebound correction, with the Asian and European sessions looking for rebound conditions. However, market sentiment is present, and the rebound may be suppressed, with on-chain capital performance being the key focus. Short-term resistance is at 3,200 and 3,260, while the support remains at the 3,000 level.
Short-term trading suggestions for Ethereum:
Buy near the 3,000-2,950 area on a pullback, targeting 3,080-3,150.
Sell near the 3,200-3,260 area on a rebound, targeting 3,150-3,100.
—— Original by the author, feel free to follow and like.
This article is exclusively published by (WeChat public account: Jian Crypto) for reference only. Trading itself is not difficult; the challenge lies in human nature and self-discipline. I hope we can all continuously improve ourselves through learning, refine ourselves, and strive for long-term strength.
Market conditions fluctuate in real-time and are time-sensitive. Feel free to scan the QR code to follow the public account for daily market information and real-time communication.
Warm reminder: This article is solely owned by the column public account (as shown above) Jian Crypto, and any other advertisements at the end of the article and in the comments section are unrelated to the author!! Please be cautious in distinguishing between true and false, thank you for reading.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
