Written by: Anthony Pompliano, Founder of Professional Capital Management
Translated by: Golden Finance
The price of Bitcoin has plummeted about 30% from its all-time high of $126,000 set on October 6. Since the beginning of the year, the price increase of Bitcoin has fallen into negative territory, with less than 1% growth over the past 12 months. Unsurprisingly, Bitcoin holders are very disappointed with the asset's performance.
The sentiment on the internet is arguably the most negative I can remember. However, anecdotes online can be misleading. Platforms like Reddit or X may just be echo chambers. So, what does the data actually tell us?
The following five charts explain what is happening.
1. When Bitcoin was last at this price, global liquidity was $7 trillion lower than now
First, data from Zerohedge shows, "When Bitcoin was last at this price, global liquidity was $7 trillion lower than now."
This data point severely contradicts previous expectations. Everyone, including myself, expected Bitcoin to narrow the gap between its price and global liquidity. Since this has not happened, many are questioning whether a fundamental change has occurred in the market as Wall Street begins to embrace this asset.
Regardless of the reasons, the fact that Bitcoin has dropped 30% in the past month and a half is undeniable.
2. This is the "third 30% pullback" in this Bitcoin cycle
James van Straten explains that this is the "third 30% pullback" in this Bitcoin cycle. Each pullback has seen the time from peak to trough shorten, accelerating the spread of market panic.
August 2024 (Yen Arbitrage): 147 days
April 2025 (Tariffs): 77 days
November 2025: 42 days
3. This pullback has now entered the oversold territory
CoinBureau data shows, "The daily RSI for Bitcoin has dropped to 26, the lowest level since February, indicating that Bitcoin has entered the oversold territory."
4. 95% of short-term holders are in a loss position
Quinten Francois points out that a similar dynamic is occurring in the profit and loss supply of short-term holders. We see that over 95% of all tokens purchased in the past 155 days are currently in a loss position.
This is clearly a way to quickly trigger market panic and dampen market sentiment. However, the market will not remain depressed forever. Eventually, the price of an asset will drop to a low enough level to attract investors again. Perhaps Bitcoin's price will drop to $90,000 each, or even lower. I do not know the exact level at which the price will start to recover.
5. Bitcoin whales are actively buying Bitcoin
However, André Dragosch from Bitwise states that Bitcoin whales (those holding more than 1,000 Bitcoins) have suddenly begun to actively purchase Bitcoin at the current price levels.
Thus, despite the surge in global liquidity, the price of Bitcoin has plummeted. Bitcoin is currently severely oversold, which has prompted the whales to start buying again.
Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed Index remains below 20.
It is this volatility, chaos, and uncertainty that has shaped the experiences of Bitcoin holders over the years.
Those who can remain calm while others are in a frenzy have historically performed well. However, it is easier said than done.
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