Metrics Ventures November Market Observation Guide
- The market has experienced a dramatic shift over the past month, from the optimism of early October to the biting cold of November, highlighting that significant changes are underway. At this moment, Bitcoin has already fallen below a crucial upward trend support, making short-term risk management more important than the long-term outlook.
- This adjustment has a clear liquidity obstacle due to the government's TGA account being unable to spend, but a closer look reveals that Bitcoin ETFs are not only experiencing continuous outflows but also showing clear and sustained volume increases. If we broaden our observation to include crypto stocks, MSTR has been in a downward adjustment for a full four months since mid-July, smoothly breaking through all support levels. Although they have performed excellently in preferred stock sales, the decline of the common stock limits their ability for explosive buying before further interest rate cuts. Essentially, due to various factors such as high positions and fundamentals, the dollar system has entered a high-pressure state where it will continuously contract without actual incremental liquidity.
- Looking ahead, although many assets such as gold, Japanese and Korean stock indices, and Latin American cycles indicate the arrival of prosperity in global capital markets; the ongoing unemployment of white-collar workers, the stabilization of international politics, and the roaring of the global fiscal cycle are indeed happening rapidly. However, considering the phenomena mentioned above, waiting for the next clear turning point is particularly important for net worth management plans.
Market Overview and Trends Review
From a purely market perspective, we want to clearly point out the short-term risk signals, including:
- MSTR continues to fall below all important support levels;
- U.S. stock BTC ETFs are not only experiencing continuous outflows but also sustained volume increases at high levels;
- Bitcoin has clearly fallen below important upward support after several weeks of increased volume;
- The speed of trading rotation at high levels in U.S. stocks, which are overly crowded, is continuously accelerating;
From a macro perspective, the Federal Reserve's attitude is no longer as important in the short term. The market has overdrawn too many expectations through centralized investments, and actual accelerated interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansion will be the clear starting point for the next market cycle. Whether it’s unemployment or the continuous slowdown of traditional industries, within the electoral political system, it will ultimately translate into continuously printed liquidity; it remains unknown whether another collapse in the capital market is needed before balance sheet expansion and easing.
Over the past few months, despite ongoing consolidation, we can once again clarify, in conjunction with global liquidity charts, that Bitcoin is the most liquidity-sensitive risk asset among dollar assets. Therefore, we remain optimistic about the future market and potential of Bitcoin, with the timing and extent of this adjustment determined by the specific path of balance sheet expansion.
Wishing everyone well, we will meet when the bubble starts.
About Us
Metrics Ventures, also known as MVC, is a data and research-driven secondary market liquidity fund led by a team of experienced crypto professionals. The team possesses expertise in primary market incubation and secondary market trading, actively contributing to industry development through in-depth on-chain/off-chain data analysis. MVC collaborates with influential figures in the crypto community to provide long-term empowerment support for projects, including media and KOL resources, ecological collaboration resources, project strategies, and economic model consulting capabilities.
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