🧐 The crypto fear index has plummeted to 15 | What does it mean that market sentiment has officially entered the "extreme fear" zone? —
In the past 24 hours, it dropped from 24 to 15, a dramatic decline in sentiment;
A week ago it was still at 27 (fear), and a month ago it was even around 38 (neutral). Today, with the government reopening, sentiment has directly plunged into extreme fear.
The current state is typical:
Prices haven't collapsed yet, but sentiment has already crumbled.
The aftershocks of the October 11 crash have not dissipated, market liquidity is insufficient, uncertainty about interest rate cuts has increased, and there are more negative factors than positive ones. Many people are starting to call for the arrival of a bear market, which should be the main reason for the sentiment collapse.
To be honest, there haven't been many instances in history where it has dropped to 15!
Historical performance of Fear & Greed in the 10–20 range
1️⃣ Let ChatGPT summarize the situations in the past few years when the index fell to the 10–20 range:
End of 2018 (Bitcoin at $3,200) → Long-term bottom
March 2020 (pandemic crash) → Excellent buying point
July 2021 (China's mining ban / BTC at $29,000) → Major reversal bottom
June 2022 (Luna crash) → Rebound point, but not the final bottom
November 2022 (FTX crash) → BTC at $15,500, the true bottom
March 2023 (banking crisis) → BTC at $19,000 → Quick V recovery
Today in 2025: Index = 15
2️⃣ Let ChatGPT calculate based on previous data:
When Fear & Greed is in the 10–20 range,
The probability of an increase in the next 1–3 months: ≈ 75%
The probability of an increase in the next 6–12 months: ≈ 88%
But in the short term (next 1–2 weeks):
The probability of continuing to explore lower levels is still 30–40%
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