Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
As 2025 gradually comes to a close, the crypto-friendly regulatory environment created by the U.S. government is becoming increasingly solid. Many crypto projects are seizing this opportunity to compete for this key market. The specific paths can be roughly divided into four types: the "Curve Saving the Country" faction represented by Polymarket, the "Point to Surface" faction represented by Binance, the "Crypto IPO" faction represented by OKX, and the "Starting Anew" faction represented by Tether.
Odaily Planet Daily will provide a brief introduction to the four major paths for returning to the U.S. market for the above-mentioned projects and trading platforms.
Polymarket's "Curve Saving the Country" Path: Reaching a Settlement with the U.S. CFTC and Acquiring the Derivatives Exchange QCX
As one of the hottest crypto projects and a popular prediction market, Polymarket's story with the U.S. market has a long history.
In 2020, leveraging the focus of the U.S. presidential election, Polymarket's trading volume surpassed $3 million in just three weeks after its launch.
However, the good times did not last long. About a year later, Polymarket was targeted by the U.S. CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission).
In October 2021, the U.S. CFTC initiated an investigation into Polymarket regarding "whether customers are allowed to improperly trade swaps or binary options, and whether the company should register with the agency." At that time, Polymarket hired former CFTC enforcement head and Sullivan & Cromwell partner James McDonald to assist in handling the investigation.
In January 2022, after being fined $1.4 million by the U.S. CFTC and ordered to shut down its market, Polymarket finally relaunched three weeks later. However, the official statement indicated that U.S. residents were unable to trade on the site.
Since then, Polymarket has closed its doors to perhaps the wealthiest crypto community in the world. Many U.S. users have been eagerly waiting to showcase their skills in the prediction market. This wait lasted for three years.
After successfully predicting Trump's victory in last year's U.S. presidential election, Polymarket was once again charged by the U.S. Department of Justice in November, investigating its "allowing U.S. users to trade." The FBI even issued a search warrant for Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan, confiscating his phone and electronic devices.
However, ultimately, with Trump's ascension, the U.S. crypto regulatory environment was cleared, and Polymarket finally welcomed its own "regulatory spring."
In July of this year, the U.S. Department of Justice formally ended its investigation into Polymarket; the U.S. CFTC also simultaneously terminated its investigation. Subsequently, Polymarket invested $112 million to acquire the U.S. compliant derivatives exchange QCX, which received CFTC approval to operate on July 9. The timing of this event is indeed intriguing.
In September of this year, after the U.S. CFTC ended its investigation, Polymarket finally received a "no-action" letter from the CFTC's Market Oversight and Clearing and Risk Departments, allowing it to return to the U.S. market under specific conditions.
In October, reports indicated that Polymarket would reopen to U.S. users by the end of November; other sources suggested that Polymarket tokens and airdrops would be implemented after returning to the U.S. market, possibly in 2026.
According to TheBlock data, Polymarket's monthly active user count reached a historic high of 477,000 last month.
Binance's "Point to Surface" Path: CZ Receives Trump Pardon, Binance Expected to Integrate Binance.US to Return to the U.S.
Compared to Polymarket, Binance's return to the U.S. market does not yet have a confirmed timeline or accurate news, but CZ's previous pardon from Trump has brought new opportunities for this matter, and the existence of Binance.US provides a foundation for Binance to integrate its business and return to the U.S.
In November 2023, due to failing to effectively implement anti-money laundering (AML) procedures and being accused of violating the U.S. Bank Secrecy Act (BSA), Binance founder CZ resigned as CEO and agreed to pay a $4.3 billion settlement fine. This matter ultimately concluded with "Binance exiting the U.S., and CZ being sentenced to four months in prison on April 30, 2024."
In December 2024, when asked whether "Binance would seek ways to return to the U.S. market," Binance CEO Richard Teng stated, "Whether we will re-enter the U.S. market, I think it's too early to discuss." "As of now, we are focusing on our global deployment and paying attention to those institutions, sovereign wealth funds, and high-net-worth individuals that will begin allocating funds to the crypto space."
Less than a year later, the situation changed dramatically due to CZ receiving a pardon from Trump.
In October of this year, according to the Wall Street Journal, Trump exercised his presidential pardon power and pardoned CZ; CZ subsequently publicly expressed his deep gratitude for the pardon and Trump's commitment to maintaining fairness, innovation, and justice in the U.S. He pledged to do everything possible to help the U.S. become the cryptocurrency capital and promote the development of Web3 globally.
Additionally, Trump also stated that he pardoned Binance founder Changpeng Zhao because he was "innocent" and "persecuted by the Biden administration." Although this was later condemned by U.S. Democratic senators Elizabeth Warren and Adam Schiff (representatives called this "naked corruption" and urged Congress to take measures to prevent similar situations from recurring), Trump's pardon is still seen as paving the way for Binance's return to the U.S. market.
In March of this year, Binance executives met with U.S. Treasury officials to discuss easing U.S. government regulations on the company; in April, reports indicated that Binance was exploring the possibility of commercial cooperation with the Trump family's cryptocurrency project; some insiders stated that Binance executives proposed to Treasury officials in Washington to revoke the independent monitor position overseeing the company's anti-money laundering compliance, which would be the first step for Binance to return to the U.S. market.
It is worth mentioning that Binance previously received a $2 billion investment from the UAE sovereign fund MGX, which used the USD stablecoin issued by the Trump family cryptocurrency project WLFI; this news was also confirmed by Trump's son Eric Trump.
Based on the existing information, whether CZ can return to a core position at Binance may determine the speed of Binance's return to the U.S. market. Additionally, Binance has officially returned to the South Korean market through the acquisition of the South Korean crypto exchange Gopax.
OKX's "Crypto IPO" Path: Reaching a Settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice, Returning to the U.S. Market in April, Planning for a U.S. IPO
Compared to Polymarket and Binance, OKX's path to returning to the U.S. market is more "steady and solid": on one hand, through a settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice and payment of fines, OKX has completed its return to the U.S. market; on the other hand, according to media reports, OKX is not satisfied with just returning to the U.S. but is also actively preparing for an IPO.
In February this year, OKX officially announced that its Seychelles subsidiary has reached a settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice regarding an investigation, admitting that due to historical compliance control deficiencies, a small number of U.S. customers had traded on the company's global platform. According to the settlement agreement, OKX agreed to pay a fine of $84 million and to forfeit approximately $421 million in revenue obtained from U.S. customers during this period, most of which came from a few institutional clients; there were no allegations of customer harm in this settlement, no charges were brought against any company employees, and no government monitors were appointed.
Additionally, OKX stated that it would strengthen its Know Your Customer (KYC) system and Customer Risk Rating (CRR) system, expand its Enhanced Due Diligence (EDD) program, deploy industry-leading Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and sanctions tools, and has already formed a professional investigation team of over 150 members.
In April, OKX announced its official entry into the U.S. market and will establish a regional headquarters in California. The official statement indicated that it would launch a centralized trading platform and OKX Wallet for U.S. users. Former OKCoin users will migrate to the OKX platform, and new user onboarding will occur in phases, with nationwide promotion expected to start later this year. OKX stated that it will actively cooperate with U.S. regulatory agencies to promote compliant operations based on current regulations, having established a compliance system covering KYC, AML, risk assessment, and transaction monitoring.
In June, The Information's crypto reporter Yueqi Yang disclosed that OKX is considering an initial public offering (IPO) in the U.S., having returned to the U.S. market in April of this year.
Of course, while the news is promising, the compliance difficulty for a crypto IPO may not be small, and there is currently no further accurate information in the market. Odaily Planet Daily will continue to track this. Recommended reading: “OKX U.S. CEO Roshan Robert: OKX is Seeking to Rebuild Its ‘Super APP’ in the U.S.”.
Tether's "Starting Anew" Path: Issuing the USAT Dollar Stablecoin and Hiring a Former White House Official as CEO
Compared to the previous three projects and platforms, Tether, as the "stablecoin giant," has chosen a more arduous "starting anew" path—issuing a new dollar stablecoin, USAT, and making thorough "compliance preparations" regarding partners and CEO selection.
In September this year, according to official news, Tether plans to launch a dollar-backed stablecoin, USAT, which will be issued under the U.S. regulatory framework; additionally, the company has appointed former White House Crypto Council Executive Director Bo Hines as the CEO of Tether USAT.
According to Tether's official statement, USAT will strictly adhere to the regulatory standards of the U.S. GENIUS Act, supported by transparent reserves, aimed at providing a digital alternative to cash and traditional payment systems for businesses and institutions. This stablecoin will utilize Tether's Hadron technology platform, with federally regulated crypto bank Anchorage Digital serving as the compliant issuer and Cantor Fitzgerald acting as the designated reserve custodian.
Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino stated that the launch of USAT is a natural step to ensure the dollar maintains its dominance in the digital age; USAT CEO Bo Hines later stated that Tether's goal in returning to the U.S. market is to replicate its success achieved overseas.
In October, Bloomberg cited sources reporting that Tether plans to launch the new stablecoin USAT on the video platform Rumble, which has previously received up to $775 million in investment from Tether, and has 51 million monthly active users in the U.S.; this move aims to capture the U.S. market.
According to the latest news, Coindesk reported that Tether plans to launch the USAT stablecoin for the U.S. market in December to comply with federal regulatory requirements set by the GENIUS Act. The token will be issued by Tether America, a joint venture between Tether and the regulated U.S. crypto bank Anchorage Digital. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino stated that the company is expanding USAT's user base through investments, aiming to reach 100 million U.S. users.
Conclusion: The U.S. Market is One of the Few "Crypto Increments," a Battleground for Major Players
According to the information from the U.S. National Cryptocurrency Association released in April this year, approximately 21% of U.S. adults—equivalent to 55 million people—own some form of cryptocurrency. This means 1/5 of Americans own cryptocurrency. Additionally, 39% of holders use cryptocurrency to pay for goods and services; 76% reported that cryptocurrency has a positive impact on their lives. From the geographical distribution of the crypto community, the penetration rate of cryptocurrency in the southern and western U.S. is close to 30% to 40%.
In an increasingly tightening liquidity market environment, this undoubtedly means more crypto users, crypto funds, and potential business profits, which explains why many crypto giants are tirelessly pursuing a return to the U.S. The reason is simple: it all comes down to one word—“profit.”
After crypto giants like Circle, Gemini, and Bullish have completed their IPO rush, the next round of capital ammunition is naturally awaited by exchanges like Kraken and OKX. As for how the market performs, users and capital will vote with their feet.
Additionally, the digital asset sales platform Coinlist also announced its return to the U.S. market in April this year; Coinbase has recently opened Monad token sales to U.S. users, marking a milestone event for U.S. users to participate in token sales for the first time since 2018, seven years later. For the crypto market, a new batch of "American retail investors" may already be on the way.
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