The Capitol in Washington is brightly lit, and the political deadlock that lasted for over 40 days has finally broken, but the suppressed economic data is struggling to flood the market as expected.
At 8 AM UTC on November 13, the U.S. federal government’s shutdown, which lasted for more than 40 days, officially came to an end. This historic longest shutdown has finally concluded. After the Senate passed a temporary funding bill, the House of Representatives quickly followed suit, approving the bill and sending it to the President for signing into effect.
This bill extends government funding until January 30, 2026, allowing the federal government to temporarily continue operations. With the government doors reopening, a wave of suppressed key economic data is about to be released, but some data may be permanently lost.
1. The End of the Shutdown: Political Deadlock Broken, Economic Concerns Remain
This record-breaking government shutdown has finally come to a close. The shutdown lasting over 40 days not only affected millions of federal employees but also led to significant delays in the release of key economic data.
A centrist group of eight Democratic senators reached an agreement with Senate Republican leaders and the White House to allow the government to reopen. To break the more than month-long deadlock, both sides made concessions, including adjustments to provisions related to the Affordable Care Act.
U.S. President Trump expressed support for the agreement, calling the deal to reopen the government "very good." This statement provided crucial support for bipartisan cooperation to resolve the deadlock.
As government agencies return to normal operations, the backlog of economic data faces release challenges, and investors need to prepare for potential market uncertainty that may persist.
2. Data Black Hole: Missing Official Statistics and Private Data Alternatives
During the shutdown, the release of several key economic data points was forced to pause, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) that were scheduled for release soon. Now that the government has reopened, the suppressed data flood is struggling to fully reach the market.
● The U.S. government may not release October's CPI and employment data. The root of the data absence lies in the prolonged government shutdown, which paralyzed key statistical agencies. Kevin Hassett, the White House National Economic Council Director, admitted, "I have been told that some surveys were never actually completed, and we may never know what happened that month."
● In the absence of official data, market participants are turning to alternative indicators to assess the labor market situation, such as Bloomberg's reconstructed unemployment statistics and the newly launched weekly wage data from ADP.
3. Cryptocurrency Market: Liquidity Tightening and Structural Changes
The U.S. government shutdown had a profound impact on liquidity within the cryptocurrency market. As fiscal spending was frozen, the Treasury's general account balance surged, effectively withdrawing a large amount of funds from the financial market and tightening liquidity in the banking system.
As of November 2025, the cryptocurrency market is at a structural turning point. With the end of fiscal expansion and interest rates peaking, liquidity is returning to the private sector.
● Reports indicate that Bitcoin is now serving as a base collateral, while Ethereum remains the settlement hub. New capital is flowing into Layer 2 solutions, artificial intelligence, robotics, decentralized entity infrastructure networks, and other emerging industries.
● The total value of the global cryptocurrency market is approximately $3.37 trillion, experiencing a pullback from recent highs. The Fear and Greed Index shows a reading of 23, indicating a low risk appetite, but higher opportunities for long-term capital accumulation.
● In the optimistic sentiment following the end of the government shutdown and the reality of missing data, the cryptocurrency market is showing a divergent trend. Ethereum has demonstrated significant resilience, maintaining relative stability despite a slight decline compared to the volatility of traditional markets.
4. Market Reaction: From Extreme Fear to Cautious Optimism
As the optimism surrounding the end of the government shutdown spreads, the market has already reacted.
● Before the bill was passed, U.S. stocks closed higher on Monday, with the Nasdaq Composite Index rising by 2.27%.
● The cryptocurrency market also experienced a strong rebound, with Bitcoin breaking through the $105,000 mark. This rebound indicates that investors are optimistic about liquidity improvements.
● The end of the U.S. government shutdown brings multiple benefits to the cryptocurrency market. On one hand, the stalled regulatory processes will restart, and on the other hand, delayed cryptocurrency ETF decisions will get back on track.
● However, market sentiment remains fragile. The cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index currently stands at 23, indicating that the market is in a state of "extreme fear." Against the backdrop of missing key economic data, investor sentiment is easily influenced by single events.
5. The Fed's Decision Dilemma: Navigating Through the Fog
The end of the government shutdown provides the Federal Reserve with clearer decision-making grounds but also brings new challenges. The data fog undoubtedly increases the difficulty of monetary decision-making.
● After just restarting interest rate cuts in September, they needed the most timely data to plan the next steps for the interest rate path. Now, they may have to rely more on data from the private sector and high-frequency indicators to assess the economic situation.
● Currently, the market expects a 66.5% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in December, but with the delayed data releases and concerns about data reliability, this expectation is likely to change.
● For Bitcoin, the implied real rate of the 10-year TIPS is a key barometer. The current rate is 1.83%, higher than mid-year levels. If the CPI data released in the future is moderate, the expected real rate will decline, easing financial conditions, which would be favorable for risk assets.
6. Navigating Uncertainty
While the end of the government shutdown brings benefits, risks and challenges still exist. The bill did not set specific limits to prevent future political deadlocks, leaving uncertainty for future fiscal policy.
At the same time, the permanent absence of key economic data may trigger ongoing market uncertainty. In the face of this unique situation, you can adjust your investment strategy from the following perspectives:
● Focus on alternative data sources: In the absence of official data, the Fed is utilizing multi-source alternative data, such as the Atlanta Fed's business surveys, the Chicago Fed's model estimates of unemployment, and private employment data. These data may become important references for the market to assess economic conditions.
● Reassess asset allocation: In light of unclear inflation prospects and expectations of slowing economic growth, consider increasing allocations to defensive sectors and high-quality bonds to balance the overall investment portfolio's risk.
● Seize investment opportunities in the structural changes of the cryptocurrency market: With Bitcoin strengthening its role as base collateral and Ethereum becoming the settlement hub, pay attention to investment opportunities in emerging fields such as Layer 2 solutions, AI, and DePIN.
The shadow of missing data may continue to affect the market until the new year arrives. Investors will turn their attention to the Fed's interest rate decision in December and the new round of political maneuvering surrounding fiscal policy.
Although the longest government shutdown in U.S. history has ended, its economic and market repercussions, especially the long-term impact of data absence on market perception, are just beginning.
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