Good afternoon everyone, I am Lao Lian Dao Jiang Xin. The results provided in the past few days have made everyone think of me again.

The 107500 and 3650 given in yesterday's morning session, as well as the 102800 and 3410 provided in the evening, have been fully validated by the market. The morning session was volatile, and the short positions in the evening were brought down, so there shouldn't be anyone with poor results.

Next, let's briefly review the price movement of Bitcoin. From a 15-minute perspective, it is a period of corrective channel, but the current momentum of contention is not very obvious, and the rhythm has not stabilized around 103500. The one-hour EMA120 and EMA144, as well as the four-hour EMA30, are all around 104200. The 15-minute EMA120 and EMA144 are around 104000, with the smaller time frames pulling down the larger time frames. This is the current first resistance level.

As for the lower level around 101800, it is the convergence point of multiple EMA lines on the 15-minute level and the starting point for the rise. This will become the next point of contention. Therefore, we should focus on handling the range of 100800-104800 with a focus on short positions, and adjust stop-loss levels based on position size.

If the market first drops to around 101800 and forms a central point, the expandable range will become 99980-103800. If it stabilizes above 104500, we can then consider the possibility of moving upwards. There is no need to carry too much stop-loss for high-level short positions, as this is the correct method for achieving an optimal risk-reward ratio.

As for Ethereum, the structural divergence is significant. It may form a small M-top, touching the EMA120, EMA144, and EMA30, which is right after 3480, then dipping to 3350, and after a short pause, making new lows. It may also rebound, and if it stabilizes above 3480, it could push higher. The variables are quite large, so we will adjust Ethereum based on Bitcoin's rhythm.

Currently, the most reasonable position is to short around 3485, add at 3520, and set a stop-loss around 3550. If being conservative, short at 3520 with a stop-loss at 3575. As for going long, we need to observe market sentiment and continue with the market outlook provided yesterday, which can also be a range-bound movement. After all, when there is significant divergence, it is the best time for swing trading.

Still, the same saying: the recent rhythm has been relatively consistent, so it is advisable to walk with giants.

Public account: Jiang Xin Lun Chan

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