Content Source: Uweb Live Class
Content Organizer: Peter_Techub News
In the current environment of increased volatility in the cryptocurrency market, the 205th session of Uweb Live Class, themed "A Four-Year Dream, Atypical Bull Market, How to Achieve Stable Profits?", attracted the attention of many students and investors. This session was hosted by Uweb partner Teacher Fang Jun, who invited A God, co-founder of RITDLab, as a guest to engage in an in-depth discussion on core topics such as the effectiveness of the four-year cycle, bear market signals, the retracement ranges of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), and the market rhythm for 2026. At the beginning of the live session, host Teacher Rui Bin pointed out the recent sharp market correction, noting the low market confidence but emphasizing that offline activities had anticipated this adjustment in advance. Guest A God analyzed the complexity of the atypical market from the perspective of macro liquidity, providing practical insights for achieving stable profits. The entire sharing lasted nearly two hours, combining student interactions to reveal the intertwined multiple cycles and risk management strategies in the current crypto market.
Atypical Bull and Bear Market Intertwined — Macroeconomic Judgments and Risk Warnings in the Current Market
At the start of the live session, Teacher Fang Jun posed a core question: Has the four-year cycle begun to take effect? Has the bear market already started? A God quickly responded that the current market exhibits characteristics of "an atypical bear market mixed with an atypical bull market." This judgment stems from the recent dollar liquidity crisis: the U.S. government shutdown lasted a record duration, the TGA account balance soared to $940 billion, leading to a dollar shortage, and the dollar index rebounded sharply, causing risk assets to plummet. When news of the government reopening was announced on Monday, the market saw a short-term rally, but the weekend's 4-hour chart indicated that BTC and ETH had stabilized relatively. A God predicted that the cessation of balance sheet reduction on December 1 and a likely 25 basis point rate cut on December 9 would bring about a relatively easing market, no longer as extremely bearish as before.
Reflecting on the year's market, Teacher Fang Jun compared the explosive growth of the AI sector in the U.S. stock market with the divergence in the crypto market: the AI-related tech stock bubble is beginning to show, while BTC and ETH have seen a few months of growth, but the overall structure remains weak. A God agreed with this view, emphasizing that the Web3 market is undergoing a "micro rebound re-exploration," adjusting the gains since the tariff war began in April. The signals indicating the end of the four-year cycle are clear: December and January will see a wave of adjustments to flush out weak hands and achieve sufficient turnover, potentially leading to an upward surge in the first half of next year. This is not a traditional bull market — in the past, BTC or ETH would initiate a rally, with the entire market following suit; now, BTC and ETH remain relatively strong, while SOL has entered a bear market (with a peak of 290, a secondary peak of 250, and a C wave expected to return to 40). Smaller coins like FIRE or UNI occasionally experience explosive growth, but the overall market is in a bear state: opportunities to make money exist, but most assets and individuals are losing money.
Risk warnings were a constant theme. Teacher Rui Bin added that the market is weak in December: U.S. Christmas holidays, fund managers' performance settlements, tax filings (similar to China's individual tax app), combined with the "Black Friday" effect, increase the probability of a correction. A God agreed, noting that Wall Street institutions dominate the crypto space, making it easier to amplify volatility as the year ends. Teacher Fang Jun inquired about the "blood-sucking" effect of AI on crypto: capital attention is shifting to AI, with a surge in primary and secondary market enthusiasm, while Web3 is becoming a mature market. The new generation is reluctant to take over old positions (such as post-90s trading coins, post-00s trading Pop Mart), with AI likened to the iPhone moment (the emergence of GPT is akin to the iPhone 4). A God added that the X-402 protocol between Coinbase and CloudFlare, originally intended for stablecoin payments, gained attention only after being linked to AI mirror payments, highlighting that Web3 needs to ride the coattails of AI.
This sub-theme emphasized that in an atypical market, achieving stable profits requires "buying expectations and selling facts": the expectation of a stablecoin bill in July lifted the market, while the actual rate cut on September 18 went unnoticed; the expectation of a government shutdown pressured a rate cut, and after BTC surged to 126k on October 6, it crashed. During student interactions, some questioned contract liquidations (such as Binance's chain liquidations), which A God viewed as "premeditated hunting": large players maintain strict risk control (having experienced crises on 5/12, 3/12, 5/19, and August 5), shifting blame to macro factors (like Trump's 100% tariffs), while in reality, behind the scenes, big bosses are funneling profits. Teacher Fang Jun responded neutrally, stating that anything can happen in the market, but one must be wary of the hidden dangers of the calculation mechanism.
The Continuation of the Four-Year Cycle and Its Multiple Influences — From Political Economy to the Intersection of AI Bubbles
The four-year cycle was the focus of the live session. Teacher Fang Jun asked whether past judgments were correct, to which A God respected the "end theory": encountering this for the first time, one-third of people firmly believe the cycle has ended, supported by on-chain data — long-term holders continue to distribute, and liquidity has decreased compared to last year's pump, creating a divergence. As an industry leader, A God emphasized the importance of firmly viewing the bear market and managing risk and cash flow effectively. The cycle is embedded in the U.S. macroeconomic context: a "bloody washout" turnover is expected within 40 days in December and January, making the subsequent rise easier. Teacher Fang Jun interpreted this as generally effective, noting that at the end of the year/beginning of the year, it is necessary to review indicators (such as the halving effect) in preparation for the bear market.
Expanding the perspective of multiple cycles, Teacher Fang Jun listed the four-year U.S. election cycle, the ten-year AI wave (similar to the mobile internet boom of 07-08, with AI starting at the end of 2022), and the U.S.-China trade war (spanning decades). A God focused on the monetary policy cycle and the AI development cycle: the AI bubble is in its early stages, with giants circulating funds (A invests in B, B invests in C, C invests in A), showing bright revenue in financial reports, but user growth and actual revenue are in doubt. A shift towards tightening monetary policy (stopping rate cuts and raising rates to curb inflation) will burst the bubble, leading to a bear market in financial markets. However, the landing of AI innovation differs from the internet/subprime mortgage crisis; the next bear market may be mild — the S&P may drop 35% instead of 50%. Teacher Fang Jun cited macro analysts for comparison: after the 2000 dot-com bubble (Cisco, Lucent infrastructure), fiber optics became the cornerstone of the internet; today, AI data center investments are more economically viable and may become the foundation for the future.
The correlation between crypto and traditional markets has increased, and Teacher Fang Jun expressed concern about whether funds are trapped in AI, without large-scale inflows into ETFs. A God agreed that AI is draining Web3, which is leaning towards new finance (such as RWA), but its influence is overshadowed by AI. Observing indicators: monitor the S&P weekly (high positions far from MA200/60; the last tariff war saw a 20% drop, with an expected 10% pullback in December-January); the Nikkei index, USD/JPY exchange rate, and Japanese bond volatility (10/30-year interest rates); China's deflation data, real estate prices/transaction volumes (currently sluggish, with a price war in new energy reflecting this). Teacher Fang Jun added that the trend of the RMB exchange rate can indicate the economic relationship between China and the U.S. A God suggested purchasing a Wind terminal (50,000 yuan) for comprehensive data.
The independence of the Federal Reserve has been eroded by Trump: under Powell's leadership, it remained neutral, but Trump arranged for two people (like Milan) to enter the scene, and after Powell steps down in May next year, Trump's people will take over, setting a precedent for the abuse of presidential power (102 clauses plus tariffs). Gold has risen 50% this year due to threats to national sovereignty/credit, while U.S. debt has soared to 38 trillion like "printing money." A God explained that BTC has not absorbed sovereign funds: the profiles of players behind it differ — BTC involves Wall Street + speculative retail investors, while sovereign nations (like East Asia increasing holdings in December, Japan/EU/Russia) view gold as neutral, with strength akin to "howitzers" crushing Wall Street's "bullets." In the future, sovereign nations may regard BTC as only 1/10th the status of gold, as major players avoid each other (Russia knows Wall Street is not playing).
Bitcoin and Ethereum Retracement Ranges and 2026 Rhythm — Practical Paths to Stable Profits
Regarding BTC/ETH retracement, Teacher Fang Jun asked A God to "draw lines freely": for the one-year period, the lower support is 88,800, with a gap of 92,800-93,000 (mystical recovery), and the bare K-line's lowest is 102k. If it breaks below 102k again by the end of December, a 10% drop is normal (to 92,000). On the upside, caution is advised at high positions — better to earn 20-30% less than to avoid the four-year roller coaster (for example, buying at 20,000 and not selling at 160,000, then dropping to 50,000). Starting from 74,500, referencing last year's rise from 49k to 106k on August 5, the main support level can be estimated. Policy stimuli (like the 10K pension plan) create more sentiment than actual inflows (people are not foolish and are unwilling to invest pensions in crypto).
For the five-year period, as the market matures and Wall Street's empty holdings increase, operations become easier but the capital volume multiplies, intensifying the competition for existing assets, with users no longer experiencing FOMO and participation decreasing. The volatility of BTC/ETH is declining (with stable growth in options positions as a hedging tool). Doubling from the previous high of 160,000 to 320,000 is possible, but reaching 1 million in the next round is difficult. A God emphasized that the decline is not sharp, and the rise is mild.
Specifically for ETH: the narrative is strong (global settlement layer, finance 3.0, slow RWA on-chain), BlackRock has applied for an ETH staking ETF (decisions on January 5/8), with POS staking at 29% (>50% safety). The belief stems from the 2020-21 haircut revolution (retail investors profiting from airdrops, like A God with DYDX), but the chips are not clean: exchanges have seen a net outflow of half over three years (from 28 million to 13.4 million), requiring five years for a washout. The rise next year is unlikely to be high, with Iran rising from 1400 to 2880 (a doubling), 3 waves at 1.3 times, and 5 waves conservatively — Yi Lihua predicts 7000 (having previously predicted 10,000, then liquidating at 4500), while A God doubts his decisions are based on interests rather than conviction.
The path to stable profits: the options market is more professional (old players/small to medium institutions hedging), currently focusing more on defense than bottom fishing, with future growth expected — after experiencing the disconnection on 11/12, 3/12, and 5/19, users are shifting, and KOL traffic needs to be cultivated. Teacher Rui Bin promoted the Hong Kong CDA exam (the only officially recognized one, with three levels of learning while testing, only 4-5 spots left in December, and the second level fully booked in January), aiding employment and foundational learning (like lending/synthetic stablecoin depth). The private sharing session revealed the rhythm for 2026: if the cycle takes effect, bottom fishing from December to the first half of next year (at 90-80k) awaits a powerful bull market; otherwise, the entire bear market. A God is optimistic in the long run: BTC may reach 200,000 to 1 million within ten years, but in the short term, risk aversion and strict risk control are necessary.
At the end of the live session, Teacher Fang Jun reflected on the learning process (such as modular reception/data neutrality of USDe), and A God added insights from the internal sharing. Students actively asked questions, emphasizing that in an atypical market, profits rely on cycle awareness and tools (like options).
This live session returned to the essence, warning of risks and guiding long-term strategies. Uweb's New York trip is about to begin, deepening exchanges between the U.S. and China. The path of crypto, a four-year dream, requires macro insights and practical strategies for stable profits.
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