Do not worry about having no friends on the road ahead; there are like-minded individuals on the investment journey! Good afternoon, everyone! I am the King of Coins from the Coin Victory Group! Thank you for your attention. Every day, I bring you fresh news from the crypto world and precise market analysis. Follow along, and there will be profits to be made!

Click the link to watch the video: https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1LGkCBpEfn/

First, let me share our trading results; you can't argue with success! In yesterday's article, I directly called: Bitcoin short at 106,000-106,500, with a take-profit target of 104,500-105,000! Open the chart and take a look; we perfectly hit the take-profit target! This morning, the market rebounded to our second resistance level around 107,500, providing another short opportunity right at our doorstep. Now it's down to 105,000, bringing in over 2,000 points in profit! How smooth was that?

The crypto market has been quite lively in the past 24 hours, with global situations and U.S. policies fluctuating, causing investor sentiment to rise and fall! Bitcoin remains relatively strong around 106,000, but news regarding regulation, liquidity, and ETF funds has clearly set the market tone for the beginning of this week. The government shutdown did not happen, liquidity expectations have improved, and risk sentiment is warming up. Several Bitcoin spot ETFs have even seen slight net inflows—institutions did not flee during last week's pullback, helping Bitcoin maintain above 105,000 and providing a safety cushion for the market!

There's also big news: starting today, compliant BTC, ETH, and SOL spot ETFs can have their fund managers stake them, and the profits can be legally distributed to investors! This is definitely good news, and it’s likely that institutions will act on ETH and SOL soon! But we need to think: is this good for existing staking DeFi projects? I believe not only is it not good, but it’s actually bearish! Because staking must be done by licensed, regulated, and custodial-capable institutions. ETF institutions cannot just pick nodes at random; they must operate within the traditional financial regulatory framework—this could diminish the advantages of DeFi projects!

Now, let’s talk about the serious market situation, starting with Bitcoin:

• The weekly chart is still in a downtrend channel, with bearish indicators like MACD and RSI not yet resolved. The key is whether it can stabilize above the M neckline;

• The daily chart shows significant resistance around 109,700, which is a triple resonance pressure point (M neckline + descending trend line + Fibonacci 0.618). If it cannot stabilize, it will still be a rebound market; however, the daily MACD and RSI have crossed bullish, supporting further rebounds;

• The 4-hour level is even more critical: yesterday, it tested the W bottom neckline (also the midline of the channel) and continued to rebound after stabilizing. Now, we need to see if it can break through the upper channel line around 108,500. If it breaks, the next resistance will be 111,200; if 108,500 is blocked, it may test the midline at 104,900, and if it breaks below the lower line at 102,500, it could form a bearish flag;

• In terms of indicators, both MACD and RSI are recovering upwards, showing good rebound signals, but RSI is approaching overbought territory, so we need to watch for a pullback.

So the overall direction is clear: the larger trend is still bearish, and the short strategy remains unchanged. Short at resistance levels in batches, and stop-loss on breakouts. Look for opportunities following the 4-hour rhythm!

Now let’s discuss Ethereum: Compared to Bitcoin, ETH has seen net outflows of more than ten times less! Although there hasn’t been much independent narrative recently, traditional investors seem reluctant to sell—perhaps because ETH spot ETFs are still at a loss, and no one wants to take a loss? However, the weekly data is grim: in week 67, the U.S. ETH spot ETF saw outflows of over 155,000 coins, while last week still had a net inflow of 6,700 coins! This shows that during panic, ETH sell-offs are much harsher than Bitcoin!

From a technical perspective, ETH has bounced up at the critical level of 3,370, encountering some resistance around 3,674. As long as it can stabilize above 3,500 (the lower edge of the channel), there’s a chance to push towards 3,900, but it still depends on Bitcoin’s performance—large whales have been continuously buying in recent days! The daily KDJ and MACD have slightly resonated upwards, but the BOLL lower and middle bands are still falling, and the MA10 and MA30 daily moving averages are also trending downwards, indicating significant resistance above; the 12-hour level has crossed bullish, but the upward momentum is weakening, and the overall trend is still a choppy downward rhythm.

So the strategy for ETH is also clear: focus on shorting at highs during the day, treating rebounds as shorting opportunities!

Finally, let me share the specific levels:

• BTC: Short in the range of 105,500-106,000, target 104,000-103,500;

• ETH: Short around 3,580-3,600, target 3,520-3,500.

  

Lastly, a heartfelt note: the market is full of performers; today they flaunt long positions, tomorrow they show short positions, making it look like a masterstroke, but it’s all hindsight! What’s truly reliable is logic that is consistent and withstands scrutiny. If you want to learn practical knowledge and get real-time strategies, search for "Coin Victory Group" on WeChat. The free experience group and live broadcasts are all solid content; like and follow to stay on track!

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