Hello everyone, I am Lao Lu. The recent market conditions have indeed been quite torturous. Whether bullish or bearish, as long as you pick the right points, there are basically no issues. However, if your entry price is at both extremes, it can be quite painful. The market has generally been moving in a pattern of rising 50% and then falling 25%, followed by further increases. The overall price movement seems reasonable but is actually chaotic. At the beginning of this month, we saw Ethereum start from 3750 and break down below the 3640 support, leading to a bearish outlook. In fact, Lao Lu has been under immense pressure. After the price dropped to a certain level, we continued to look bullish at the 3215 USD support level, attempting to rise to the major resistance level of 3650 USD. This too was under significant pressure, as most people were waiting for the price to continue downward! But it seems that Lao Lu has gained a slight advantage. Currently, both cryptocurrencies are at the pressure levels we provided earlier, 106400 and 3650, continuing to move downward, but not by much—Ethereum has only dropped about 150 USD. If we consider the current major resistance levels and the conflict of this hourly cycle of rising prices, could we already be at a small cycle top? Let’s follow Lao Lu for a deep analysis.

Ethereum's recent market trend is quite interesting. Anyone who has been shorting at the bottom has been trapped. When did Lao Lu start to look bullish? It was when the price rebounded from 3054 to 3304, after dropping from 3586 to 3054 USD. This weak hourly market, based on the continuation of the downward pattern, should not have rebounded this much. Once the rebound is too high, it definitely won't be a drop. This is why we repeatedly said a week ago that Ethereum is no longer in a weak market, and the overall rhythm should shift from bearish at high levels to bullish at low levels, providing support levels of 3176 and 3216, continuing to look bullish. Therefore, everyone might as well review past articles, as reviewing past market conditions can truly improve your trading skills. Currently, Ethereum is relatively simple; we just need to think about two questions.

The first question: Will it break 3650 USD?

The second question: Will it break 3500 USD?

Let’s first discuss the first question. 3650 is a confluence of three technical points. We detailed this in the previous article. One technical point is the 50% division line of the larger cycle, the second point is the starting point of the last major bearish candle in this round of decline, and the third technical point is that after we turned bearish on the 3640 support, it has now become a resistance level. Today, we will continue to focus on trading after 5 PM!

If 3650 can break above after 5 PM, even reaching above 3730, then we will look for a bullish retracement before 7-10 PM, with an entry point not lower than 3620.

If the price breaks below 3500 after 5 PM, remember, we must not go long tonight. This is the starting point after the drop yesterday morning, which is also why we advised all students to go long around 3540 last night. As long as we hold this level, the bulls are still in play.

The above belongs to the intraday strategy, but from a larger cycle perspective, if the price effectively breaks above 3650, we will consider a bearish position once more, looking at the range of 3760 to 3810. This resistance range also has three technical points. If the opportunity arises, we will analyze it in detail. Next, how do we distinguish between bulls and bears? The boundary for Ethereum is 4100, and for Bitcoin, it is 114000. If the price can return above these two levels, then the bull market will continue; otherwise, it remains bearish. So, there’s no rush for spot trading. If it can stabilize here later, it won’t be too late to enter. Five years ago, you might have thought entering Bitcoin at 50,000 was a bit high; five years later, you might think 150,000 is a bit high. Therefore, price is not the only factor in determining the timing of entry.

As for Bitcoin, we won’t emphasize it much; the analysis principles are the same as Ethereum. We will also focus on the starting point of 104600. If it does not continue to break higher after 5 PM, but instead falls below this starting point, we must not go long tonight. We will continue to monitor the larger cycle range of 109100 to 109700, which is also where we consider taking a mid-term short position. The technical aspects are also threefold; if the opportunity arises, we will analyze it further. Currently, there’s no rush.

Specific entry points will definitely be within this range. As for the price, we need to adjust based on future price fluctuations and hourly patterns. We will provide real-time alerts when the time comes, so just be patient. After all, we are currently at critical pressure points and support levels, and we should adopt different strategies for different price movements.

Today: Written by Lao Lu on November 11, 2025, at 12:03 PM. Note that all strategies are effective once and cannot be reused! Follow the WeChat public account: Please call me Lao Lu from the crypto circle, daily first release!

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