Last time we talked about a similar issue, but last time it was about price, this time a friend asked about cycles. I have a slightly different view on cycles; I don't fully believe in the $BTC halving cycle, but I do believe in the four-year cycle. It seems contradictory, but it actually isn't.

Currently, the impact of Bitcoin's halving on price is negligible, but is the four-year cycle useful? Will the halving cycle in 2024 bring a bull market to the cryptocurrency market? At least a bull market for BTC, right? Is this rise related to the halving?

Maybe it is, but the bigger relationship lies in the U.S. elections, especially this time, as it is the first time in history that a U.S. presidential candidate has openly supported Bitcoin, and it is also the first time a U.S. president has publicly supported Bitcoin. Such an epic effect can bring liquidity.

So I still have strong confidence in 2028, which has almost nothing to do with the halving, but rather with expectations for the elections. The biggest enemy of dollar-cost averaging is not the price, but one's own mindset. If you worry about not buying at the lowest point every time you purchase, it will be difficult to form a coherent dollar-cost averaging strategy.

I am not very optimistic about the first and second quarters of next year, but if the price drops, I will buy then. But what if it doesn't drop? How many of the friends who told me that dollar-cost averaging at 64,000 was too early can now confidently say that BTC's price will have a chance to go below 64,000 dollars?

This article is sponsored by #Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh

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