Master Discusses Hot Topics:

To say that the data from last night, which the market treated as air, is actually a knife, the Americans faced 153,000 Challenger layoffs in October. This is not a slight increase; it’s directly rubbing the employment market's face against the wall.

The previous value was 54,000, and now it’s more than three times that, clearly telling you: employment is collapsing, jobs are crumbling, and companies can’t hold on anymore. Yet, the Americans are still at a standstill, and official data has been cut off, leaving the market to guess on its own.

As long as the expectation is for employment to cool and the unemployment rate to rise, the expectation for interest rate cuts is not just a projection but a nailed-down emotional resonance. The probability of a rate cut in December at CME has risen to 69%, which is the real core driving the movements of U.S. Treasuries and the dollar, not some nonsense optimistic market sentiment.

U.S. Treasury yields are now absurdly high; previously, everyone thought they had no meat on them, but once the expectation of rate cuts arises, attracting funds through interest rate spreads becomes a matter of minutes. The dollar index is being pushed down, breaking below 100.

Currently, globally, funds are looking for places to survive; wherever liquidity is a bit looser, that’s where they run. On the surface, it seems stable, but in reality, a group of people is dancing with torches in an oil depot. The only real risk is whether the U.S. stock market will step on the floor and break through; as long as the U.S. stock market doesn’t pretend anymore and directly plunges, that’s when global assets will scream together.

Speaking of old Powell, he should be out by the first half of next year. What he needs most now is a dignified exit, so interest rate cuts won’t be a drastic slash; he will pretend to be steady, waiting to confirm that inflation is a one-time drop before he packs up and leaves.

The new chairman will then raise the flag of flooding the world with money, and by the time of the midterm elections, Trump will probably set off some fiscal fireworks, and that’s when the market will have hope to take off. Then, most likely, at the end of 2027, they will start to hand you inflation hell back; money will never be given for free.

Back to the market, after the three segments of the rise from April to October ended, the knife on October 11 directly cut through the daily structure, forming a structural breakdown, signaling the end of the bulls. Now it’s the second segment of the decline, with prices grinding sideways in the range of 105K to 99K.

The key positions are 100K, 105K, and 98.2K. If 100K is broken, it will directly rush to 98.2K to wash the bottom. If 100K holds, then funds will rush up to 105K. If 105K is stabilized, then there’s a possibility to touch 110K. There won’t be a reversal, but a short-term rebound cannot be ruled out.

On the other hand, the return of open contracts indicates that leverage is coming back to life, and everyone is starting to forget their lessons and add positions again, especially on the perpetual side where bulls are willing to spend money to maintain positions, and sentiment is becoming more optimistic.

The leverage on Ethereum is even fiercer, so its volatility will be crazier than Bitcoin’s next. If Ethereum cannot break the 3500 neckline, it will continue to drag down; the 2-hour level bat pattern will not be established, and it won’t take off.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Level Reference:

Second Resistance Level: 105600

First Resistance Level: 104000

Support Level Reference:

First Support Level: 101200

Second Support Level: 100400

The first support at 100.4K is the short-term bottom line; if it breaks, don’t talk about rebounds, just continue to go down. The second support at 101.2K is currently the short-term support, and falling below it is also dangerous.

Before breaking through the 20MA and the downward trend line, all rebounds are referred to as pullbacks, which are opportunities for you to run, not reversals. The RSI is already oversold, so a rebound is normal, but it’s not a bull takeoff.

The first support at 101.2K is the bottom line for this round of short-term rebounds; if 100.4K really breaks, it’s highly likely to continue to plummet. The first resistance at 104K needs to be crossed before looking further up, and the second resistance at 105.6K will determine the strength of the rebound when it arrives.

11.7 Master’s Segment Pre-Set:

Long Entry Reference: Not currently referenced

Short Entry Reference: Short in the range of 103500-104000, Target: 101200

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, not just look at a few market conditions and jump to conclusions. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "catch the top and bottom every time," but in reality, it’s all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, not someone who jumps in only when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are needed to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

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