From November 5 to 6, in the East 8 Time Zone, the mood of global investors felt like riding a high-speed elevator. U.S. stocks fell the previous day amid concerns, only to rebound strongly the next day; gold swung between safe-haven demand and dollar pressure; cryptocurrencies staged a "V-shaped" reversal, with Bitcoin quickly rebounding over 5% after breaking the critical support of $100,000.
All of this happened in less than 48 hours. Funds rapidly switched between the four major asset classes, staging a real "flash" game.
1. Market Overview: The Game of Key Levels
The performance of the four major asset classes has become the focal point of the current market.
● U.S. Stocks Reverse After "Black Tuesday"
After experiencing "Black Tuesday" on November 5, U.S. stocks quickly rebounded the next day. The Dow Jones rose 0.48%, the S&P 500 rose 0.37%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.65%.
Large tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Google rising over 2% to set a new historical closing high, Tesla rising over 4%, while Nvidia fell nearly 2%.
● Gold Approaches the Psychological Barrier of $4000
COMEX gold futures rose 0.81% on November 5, closing at $3992.6 per ounce, nearing the critical psychological level of $4000.
As of November 4, the prices of jewelry gold from brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang reached or exceeded 1260 yuan/gram, setting a historical high.
● Dollar Index Surpasses 100 Mark
On November 5, the dollar index briefly hit a five-month high, reaching 100.360, but then turned down, ultimately hovering around the high of 100.2.
This position places it slightly below the 200-day moving average of 100.383—this technical resistance level has now become a key battleground for determining the dollar's trend.
● Cryptocurrency Stages "V-shaped" Reversal
The cryptocurrency market faced another sharp decline. Bitcoin fell below the critical support of $100,000 on November 5, even dipping to $98,944. However, it quickly rebounded, returning above $103,000, with a daily rebound of over 5%.
2. Interconnectedness of Assets
The interrelationship between the four major assets reveals the deeper logic of global capital flows. When U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies fell in sync, traditional "safe-haven asset" gold failed to attract all the outflowing funds, indicating that the market is redefining safe-haven logic.
"The negative correlation between gold and Bitcoin is weakening," noted JPMorgan analyst Liu Yi, "this indicates that investors are beginning to allocate both traditional safe-haven assets and digital gold simultaneously, rather than choosing one over the other." From the perspective of capital flow, three patterns are noteworthy:
Pattern 1: Easing Negative Correlation Between Dollar and Gold
● Historical data shows that the negative correlation between the dollar and gold is as high as 80%. However, this relationship has recently loosened—while the dollar strengthens, gold remains resilient.
● "This indicates that safe-haven sentiment is simultaneously pushing up both the dollar and gold," said Wen Yi, an analyst at First Gold, "such an anomaly is not uncommon during periods of heightened geopolitical uncertainty."
Pattern 2: Strengthening Positive Correlation Between U.S. Stocks and Cryptocurrencies
● The 30-day correlation coefficient between the Nasdaq index and Bitcoin has risen to 0.72, a six-month high. This indicates that investors still view cryptocurrencies as part of high-risk tech assets.
● "When tech stocks face sell-offs, investors will also reduce their cryptocurrency holdings to offset losses," explained Morris, an analyst at cryptocurrency fund Pantera Capital, "this is a typical chain reaction of leveraged liquidation."
Pattern 3: Accelerating Speed of Capital Rotation
● The scale of inflows and outflows in global equity funds reached a new high for the year, indicating that investors' holding periods have significantly shortened. "Funds are moving quickly between different assets like hummingbirds," described Stevenson, head of wealth management at Standard Chartered Bank, "the duration of stay has shrunk from weeks to days or even hours."
3. Behind the Scenes Drivers
Three core factors are driving this capital migration.
The Fed's "Swing Dance"
● The remarks of Federal Reserve Governor Milan became a turning point for the market. His statement about "continuing to lower interest rates being reasonable" instantly changed market sentiment.
● "The market's sensitivity to Fed signals has reached an extremely high level," pointed out former Fed economist Julia Coronado, "any slight change in wording could trigger a massive repricing of assets."
● The CME FedWatch Tool showed that the market's expectation of a rate cut in December rose from 58% to 62.5% within 24 hours, directly triggering the rebound in U.S. stocks.
Geopolitical "Multiple Crises"
● The U.S. government shutdown has entered 36 days, setting a record for the longest duration. Meanwhile, new turmoil has emerged in the international situation.
● "We are facing a triple uncertainty of geopolitical, domestic political, and economic policy," wrote Goldman Sachs chief political economist Alec Phillips in a client report, "this combination is unprecedented in post-war U.S. history."
● The geopolitical risk index has risen to 156, up 12% from last month, approaching levels seen during the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022.
Extreme Fluctuations in Sentiment Cycles
● Market sentiment indicators show rare divergence: the fear and greed index for U.S. stocks is in the "neutral" zone, while the fear and greed index for cryptocurrencies has dropped to an extreme fear level of 20. "This divergence creates arbitrage opportunities," said Greg Gai, former chief strategist at Quantum Fund, "the brave are buying Bitcoin and shorting tech stocks, betting on the return of their correlation."
4. Capital Footprints
Tracking capital flows reveals some phenomena that contradict traditional perceptions.
Cryptocurrency: Opportunities Amid Panic
The drop in Bitcoin below $100,000 triggered massive liquidations, but on-chain data shows a different picture.
● "While retail investors panic-sell, addresses holding over 1,000 Bitcoins are increasing their holdings," said Ki Young Ju, CEO of cryptocurrency analysis firm CryptoQuant, "these 'whale' addresses net added about 8,000 Bitcoins in the past 24 hours."
● Meanwhile, Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced significant capital outflows. On November 5, the net outflow reached $488 million, a three-month high. "The outflows from ETFs are mainly short-term traders, while on-chain accumulators are long-term investors," Ki Young Ju added, "this reflects a significant divergence among market participants."
Gold: The Intersection of Old and New Safe-Haven Funds
The gold market is supported by both traditional safe-haven funds and inflation-hedging funds.
● Global gold ETFs ended five consecutive months of outflows, achieving a net inflow of $820 million in October. Meanwhile, central banks around the world continued to increase their gold holdings, with the World Gold Council reporting that global central bank net purchases reached 120 tons in the third quarter.
● "Gold is benefiting from both safe-haven demand and de-dollarization trends," said John Reade, chief market strategist at the World Gold Council, "the simultaneous strength of these two driving factors is historically rare."
U.S. Stocks: Tech Stocks Remain the "Ballast"
Despite facing volatility, tech stocks remain the ultimate destination for funds.
● "In every market downturn, we see funds flowing into mega-cap tech stocks," said Wei Li, global chief investment strategist at BlackRock, "investors believe the AI revolution is still in its early stages." The earnings reports of tech giants like Microsoft and Google exceeded expectations, supporting this belief. Google's stock price reached a historical high, with a market capitalization surpassing $2 trillion.
5. Forward Path
The future trends of various asset classes may show significant divergence.
Gold: The Path to $4500?
● Fundamental factors support gold prices. The scale of global negative-yield bonds has expanded again, currently reaching $5.2 trillion, a 15% increase from last month. Gold's competitiveness as a zero-yield asset has correspondingly improved.
Cryptocurrency: The Test of the Bull Market
Whether Bitcoin can hold the $100,000 mark will be key to assessing the health of the market.
● "If Bitcoin effectively breaks below $107,000, it may drop to $100,000," warned Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, "but if it can hold at the current level, a push towards $120,000 by the end of the year is still possible."
● Derivatives data offers a glimmer of hope: the number of open contracts for Bitcoin futures decreased by 12% as prices fell, indicating a healthy reduction in market leverage rather than panic selling.
Dollar: The Side Effects of a Strong Dollar
The dollar index may remain strong in the short term, but concerns are beginning to arise.
● "Further strengthening of the dollar may trigger a new round of intervention," said Kit Juckes, forex strategist at Société Générale, "the Japanese Ministry of Finance has sent strong signals, suggesting possible intervention to prevent excessive depreciation of the yen."
● Historical data shows that when the dollar index exceeds 100, the pressure for capital outflows from emerging markets significantly increases. This sign has already begun to manifest.
This capital migration is far from over. The Federal Reserve's policy path, geopolitical risks, and corporate earnings outlook will continue to drive capital flows among the four major assets.
"The breakthrough of key levels is just the beginning, not the end; the real opportunity lies in identifying the next stop for capital flows, rather than following its previous stop."
Join our community to discuss and grow stronger together!
Official Telegram community: https://t.me/aicoincn
AiCoin Chinese Twitter: https://x.com/AiCoinzh
OKX benefits group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=l61eM4owQ
Binance benefits group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=ynr7d1P6Z
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
