Last night was a terrifying night. Yes, I felt horrified even while holding a short position. This horror is more frightening than the waterfall spike on October 11, because last month's waterfall was just a liquidation of leverage, while this wave of decline is not merely a liquidation of leverage but a consensus decline in the market.

Yesterday, I notified on my public account to reduce the short position at the top. In hindsight, it’s clear that I sold too early, missing out on 4000 points. However, I do not regret it because my position was too heavily weighted. I can always find a new position to re-enter. What I am dissatisfied with today is that my thought process had a clear problem; I overlooked an important point.

Now, let’s talk about the overlooked point. During yesterday's market decline, I had anticipated that the market would bottom out at 103500, then start to consolidate and repair to 107000 before beginning a new downward action route. This route was based on my understanding of retail investors in the market.

Firstly, the market had indeed turned clearly bearish yesterday, but 103500 maintained a sideways fluctuation throughout the afternoon, which means that theoretically, chasing shorts was not feasible; only short-term long positions existed. At the same time, there was no trend for bottom-fishing long positions. Therefore, as the market continued to decline, from my perspective, the lack of long positions meant that no one would continue to pay profits to the shorts, making the theoretical decline meaningless. This wave was a misjudgment on my part; I was too immersed in countering retail investors, always thinking from the perspective of the big players, forgetting the existence of the whales in the market.

So today, let’s quickly identify the problem and readjust our thinking.

Since the problem lies in the whales continuously selling off, let’s discuss this point. It is clear that yesterday's deep decline was not a market behavior to liquidate leverage, meaning there was no inducement to kill long positions. Coupled with the consistent selling by the whales, we can further confirm that the downward trend has just begun and is still ongoing. After breaking the bull-bear line on Monday, there was no quick rebound on Tuesday, and today, Wednesday, the short-term rebound is still very weak. In the short term, I do not see the feasibility of repairing to 107000. Therefore, we can conclude that this break of the bull-bear line confirms the formation of a definitive downward trend, and we will not consider the market repairing back to 107000 in the short cycle.

OK, now that a new thought process is established, the bearish trend continues to extend downward. However, during the decline, it will not provide opportunities for chasing shorts or rebound shorts, inevitably eliminating short-term speculative short positions before continuing to decline. This maintains the trend while ensuring that retail investors cannot get on board. Therefore, in the current market atmosphere of strong bearishness, combined with the information from the market, we can derive an operational route.

In the latter half of the night yesterday, Bitcoin accelerated its decline, forming a double bottom W structure near 109000. Currently, the market is repeatedly hovering around the neck line resistance of the W double bottom. From the market information, the rebound is very weak, increasing the probability of short positions entering. The obvious area for short positions to enter is in the range of 102000-103500. In the afternoon, short positions have already started to enter. During this decline, unless there is support resistance at 108500, long positions will only have a chance to enter in that case; otherwise, I wouldn’t dare to act recklessly.

Conclusion: If the subsequent market maintains a healthy and benign decline, it will inevitably break 103500 once to clear a wave of short-term chasing shorts. Then, if the market returns to 103500, I will re-add the portion I previously reduced during the second decline phase. If the decline continues, once the market breaks below 108000, I will close all short positions for profit, ending this wave directly.

For friends currently holding empty positions, the suggestion is to enter shorts during the rebound back to 103500 in the second break phase, targeting 98000.

In the afternoon, if the market approaches around 101000 (within 200 points up or down), a short-term long position can be taken, with a stop loss at the integer level of 100000, targeting 103500.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。