After this veto, the significant decline in the risk market does not align with the interests of both parties, especially with the midterm elections starting in 2026, which makes both parties cautious about going too far. From the current information, both parties have begun to enter a state of compromise. If all goes well, a new agreement could be reached as early as this week, and the U.S. government could resume operations next week, which would alleviate market anxiety.

Of course, these are just my personal views, and what I say may not be correct. According to Kalshi's data, the market expects a 44-day shutdown. Achieving consensus this week and starting government operations next week aligns with this timeline, so it is very likely that the U.S. government will return to normal operations next week, and the risk market will also likely begin to recover.

Looking back at Bitcoin's data, there is indeed a sense of panic, and the panic sentiment is intensifying. The turnover rate has significantly increased, mainly driven by short-term investors. However, due to low purchasing power, the selling by these short-term investors is already affecting the price movement of $BTC, while earlier investors have not seen much change.

Currently, the price decline has broken through the support range, but the support level between $104,500 and $111,000 has not been compromised. At least for now, the chip structure at this level remains intact, with no significant reduction in holdings. Once the shutdown ends, it is very likely that it will return to the support range. My long position has not been closed, but if this long position is liquidated, I will buy spot at the $99,000 level.

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