This article is merely a personal market opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Any trading based on this is at your own risk.

Since the listing of the BTC spot ETF, the pricing power of BTC has gradually shifted towards Wall Street. After more than two years of development, institutions have accumulated a large amount of BTC and hold a significant portion of the pricing power. At the same time, due to the early domestic crackdown on mining, some of the corresponding pricing power of miners has also gradually transferred overseas.

These actions are reflected in the impact on BTC: most of the market movements occur during the active hours of the US market, and the dominance of the Asian session over the market has significantly diminished. As the number of BTC held by centralized institutions increases, BTC becomes more sensitive to macro data and geopolitical events. Institutions have significantly amplified the transmission efficiency of external events on BTC price movements.

This year, especially in the second half, trading has been extremely painful, even causing me physical discomfort. The biggest feeling I have in the second half of the year is that BTC often oscillates around key support levels, unable to rise significantly or break down. It frequently experiences small spikes below support only to recover, causing trend traders like me to often hit stop losses.

Just when you think the support is strong enough, a geopolitical or macro negative event can cause the market to plummet and break key support. Several times, I was excited thinking that my short position could finally be held for a longer time, and while calculating target drop positions based on patterns, the market quickly rebounded, leaving me with nothing.

In April (trade war), late June (Israel-Palestine conflict), late August (US recession concerns), and early October (US-China tariff escalation), there have been macro or geopolitical negative events, but none have dropped to the target positions corresponding to technical patterns.

I even began to doubt whether technical analysis is still useful? The answer is that technical analysis has not failed. However, the effectiveness of technical analysis has prerequisites: price movements must be primarily driven by endogenous factors. Market movements caused by genuine demand and supply leading to sufficient capital games are suitable for technical analysis. The role of external factors is to amplify or hedge the market movements triggered by internal factors. Whether in stock trading or cryptocurrency trading, speculation based on external positive/negative factors is a short-term price distortion behavior; the heavier the emotions, the less useful the analysis.

Therefore, technical analysis is effective in the long term, but it may fail during specific periods due to excessive external shocks that alter the expected trends over a certain time scale. The difficulties in trading this year stem from this; external shocks are not only large but also numerous and repetitive. The US-China economic conflict, Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts, internal partisan struggles in the US, uncertainties around interest rate cuts, the back-and-forth between re-inflation and unemployment rates, the recession crisis in Europe, and so on—there are too many factors.

With the narrative of BTC as digital gold collapsing, and even the centralized narrative facing a crisis (as centralized institutions hold a large amount of BTC), but without new narratives or certain liquidity expansion leading the way, BTC lacks endogenous momentum and does not show points that can stimulate new demand. In such a situation, I believe that the market in the near future will continue to revolve around short-term fluctuations driven by external events, with no clear trend for now.

Breakthroughs or breakdowns without external stimuli may be the true expected trend.

Finally, let's take a brief look at the charts of BTC and ETH.

BTC has been oscillating in a range for about 20 days, and the trading volume is gradually shrinking, forming a very standard oscillation pattern. Recently, it has been a relatively calm period; if it breaks below 106,000, be cautious of risks.

ETH is similar, with the lower edge of the oscillation around 3670. Let's see how it performs during the evening US trading hours. A breakdown still warrants caution.

Follow me to maximize trend profits with minimal operations.

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