Yesterday we mentioned that the market has entered a narrow range phase, which will last for a while. Today, we see that the drop from yesterday has been pulled back, aligning with the logic of a narrow range. Additionally, since today is the last day of October, the market fluctuations should not be significant; we just need to hold our position for the last shift of October.
From the MACD perspective, the energy bars have started to rise, and the fast line has also begun to turn upwards. If this can continue, there will be a wave of upward movement, which is favorable for the bulls.
Looking at the CCI, it broke below -100 yesterday, but it has pulled back now. However, it is still a certain distance from the zero line, and given the narrow range, we expect fluctuations, so I do not believe the CCI can regain the zero line in the short term.
From the OBV perspective, the drop from a few days ago has led to a significant outflow in OBV, and it can already be considered a downtrend in terms of shape. Meanwhile, the slow line continues to press down, so we remain bearish here.
Looking at the KDJ, a death cross occurred earlier, and currently, the market is rising. The KDJ shows a tendency to flatten, which aligns with our expectation of fluctuations.
From the MFI and RSI perspectives, both indicators are moving upwards, but for a significant increase, sustainability is required, so we will continue to observe in the coming days.
From the moving averages, a death cross has occurred between the 30 and 120 periods, so it is highly likely that the decline will continue. Currently, the 120 period is in a flattening phase; if we see the 120 moving down next, it will basically confirm a downward trend.
Looking at the Bollinger Bands, the market entered a narrow range yesterday, so it should move towards the upper band near the lower band. The market dropped quickly yesterday and then quickly recovered today, both aligning with the logic of a narrow range. Now we need to see if the middle band can hold the market; if it can, the next two days will likely be around the middle band. If it cannot hold, it may move towards the upper band.
In summary: The market trend aligns with our expectations, currently entering a narrow range, and it is estimated that it will take a few more days to see a significant direction. Therefore, there should not be major movements this week, although short-term trading is possible. Significant movements are expected next week or even next month. For the bears, the best target this week is to close below 109,000, with resistance seen at 112,000-114,000 and support at 107,500-106,000.
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