Trying to wrap my mind around this...

When Trump heightened trade tensions with China on October 10th, Bitcoin was trading right around $121k.

Equities were also trading inches away from all-time highs.

The tariff news & trade concerns caused a spike on vol and a subsequent selloff across the risk curve; however, equity markets were able to literally bottom on that day.

Just look at the charts...

Local lows for the 4 major U.S. indices were produced on October 10th.

Since then, equities have ramped.

New all-time highs, with risk-on vs. risk-off ratios reflecting an abundance of risk appetite, even if breadth isn't as robust as many folks would like to see (I'm not concerned about the weak breadth argument).

But it's been a completely different story for BTC & crypto.

Relative to the lows on October 10th ($107k), Bitcoin made lower lows on October 17th ($103.5k) and is currently trading below the daily close on October 10th (trading at $109.9k vs. the close of $112.9k).

Everyone is aware – Bitcoin is lagging equities.

Bitcoin's malaise is also causing alts to bleed because of the "rising tide lifts all boats" dynamic.

To make things even more confusing...

U.S./China tensions seem to be resolved.

The additional 100% tariff is gone.

Remaining tariff rate gets revised lower by 10 points.

Rare earths & metals ✅

Soybean purchases ✅

Fentanyl crackdown ✅

Cooperation on Russia/Ukraine ✅

The market seemed to be optimistic going into this meeting, so the additional rally in equities recently (particularly in light of strong earnings, more AI/capex deals, Fed rate cut, etc.) is justified and logical.

But again...

We're not seeing that rally translate to BTC.

In fact, we're seeing even more outsized underperformance vs. the equity market.

Bitcoin was trading at $116k two days ago.

It fell below $108k just 7 hours ago (now $109.9k).

Relative to the Nasdaq-100, Bitcoin is trading at the lowest levels since March 30, 2025.

BTC/QQQ is down -5.2% YTD and "only" up +19% YoY.

In such a strong bull market for risk assets, this is a head-scratcher.

Is it one of the biggest catch-up plays for the next 1-6 months, or is it an alluring underperformance trap that will keep perpetuating itself for the next 1-6 months?

Everyone's pontificating.

No one knows for sure.

Gun to my head, I say Bitcoin resumes higher, recaptures its outperformance vs. equities, and trends towards my $175k (at minimum) cycle price target.

I've been sharing that target since mid-2023 when BTC was trading at $30k.

My invalidation criteria hasn't been triggered yet over the course of this bull market, which is why I've continued to reiterate the validity of the target.

But unfortunately, we're getting close to the invalidation.

Premium members, you know what the level is AND you know that it's a dynamic level that could (slowly) change, depending on market action.

So far, Bitcoin is defending its:

• 200-day EMA & SMA

• AVWAP from the April 7th lows

• AVWAP from the October 17th lows

• Structural "breakout, retest, rebound" setup

But it's struggling to break above its:

• 21 & 55-day EMAs

• AVWAP from the ATHs on October 6th

Bulls have their datapoints to focus on.

Bears have their datapoints to focus on.

And while equities continue to rip, the underperformance is becoming even more pronounced and noticeable.

This is creating a time-based capitulation, with investors getting exhausted over the price action, the chop, and the lack of upside participation.

It's a tug of war, but the uptrend is intact, as far as I'm concerned.

And I see no reason to formally shift bearish until that trend is invalidated by the dynamic level that I referenced above.

Lock in, plan, adapt, execute.

And good luck.

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