Last night, the Federal Reserve finally lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. More importantly, it announced that it would end the balance sheet reduction on December 1.
As soon as the news broke, the crypto market did not rise as anticipated; instead, it experienced a slight decline. （For further reading, see BTC Drops Below 110,000: Where Did Market Confidence Go?）
In contrast, the U.S. stock market saw a surge, with NVIDIA's market value surpassing $5 trillion, setting a global historical record, just after boosting investor confidence at the GTC Fall Conference; combined with the earlier news of the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 4000 points after 10 years, it is no wonder that some people lamented: “Brothers, we can’t hold on any longer. Let’s go play with U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and A-shares.”
From the current market situation, our most direct feeling is: if this continues, there will be very few people trading cryptocurrencies. It is not an exaggeration to say that the crypto market is facing a new round of "industry crisis," and the biggest difference this time compared to the past is that it is caught between internal troubles and external threats—industry innovation is weak, sector bubbles are rotating faster, large funds are taking over the pricing power of mainstream coins, the strategies and experiences accumulated by ordinary people are becoming ineffective, the old guard is weakening, and a world where "only insiders make huge profits" is emerging; compared to the almost universally high external markets (gold, Japanese and Korean stock markets, Nasdaq, etc.), the crypto market, which has always relied on wealth effects to attract newcomers, is "ignoring everything." On the data front, institutional net inflows have stagnated, and DAT and ETFs are no longer in the spotlight.
To ensure that "brothers are still around after the storm," what the crypto market truly needs is: massive funds, broader attention, and liquidity.
External Crisis of the Crypto Market: Better Performing Assets Speak
The first disappointment in the crypto market may be most intuitively reflected in the asset growth lagging behind gold.
BTC's Annual Growth Slightly Outpaces Dow Jones, Far Behind Gold
From the comparison chart below, we can clearly see that BTC's current growth of about 17% is far less impressive than gold's over 50% growth; conversely, although the Dow's growth is less than BTC's, just last night, the Dow Jones Index touched 48,000, setting a new record high; compared to BTC's drop from over $125,000 to around $111,000 now, its performance is undoubtedly better.
Compared to the more recognized gold, BTC's safe-haven attributes and high risk, large volatility have also faced more scrutiny. After all, whenever macro-level or global regional crises erupt, BTC has not been subject to a buying frenzy; more people view it as a type of asset within the U.S. stock market, "only falling with the market."
Annual Growth Chart of BTC, Dow Jones, and Gold (as of October 30)
Overview of the Dow Jones Index's Annual Growth
Market Size Limitations, Liquidity Shortages
In addition, compared to the overall market capitalization of nearly $70 trillion in the U.S. stock market, the overall market capitalization of the crypto market remains at around $3-4 trillion, making it a somewhat lackluster "small cake"—after nearly 17 years of development, the overall market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is still less than 10% of the U.S. stock market; its share in the global economic system is even more pitiful.
Total Market Capitalization of U.S. Stocks Approaching $70 Trillion
If the above numerical comparisons are too macro, let's use a more understandable analogy: in terms of NVIDIA's receivables, just at the recently concluded NVIDIA GTC conference, Jensen Huang stated that the Blackwell and Rubin chips expected to launch next year will collectively bring in $500 billion in GPU sales over five quarters; this alone exceeds ETH's current market capitalization. Simply put, NVIDIA's annual revenue from a single business exceeds the market capitalization accumulated by Ethereum over 10 years, and even surpasses it.
Looking solely at retail investor data, in the first half of 2025, the trading volume of individual investors on Nasdaq reached $6.6 trillion; in comparison, the liquidity in the cryptocurrency market feels like a puddle in front of the ocean.
Main Market Narrative Driven, Crypto Circle Stagnates
In addition to the above data and market factors, narrative fatigue is another challenge facing the crypto market at present.
Compared to the rapidly developing frontier technologies, especially in the AI field, many projects and narratives in the crypto industry are still lagging behind.
Compared to AI companies that have launched numerous AI models this year, such as Claude Code, GPT5, Deepseek V3.1, and Qwen3 MAX, the "crypto x AI projects" that are still at the paper or token stage are far less active than they were at this time last year; meanwhile, market attention and investors are fragmented among DAT treasury, exchange mechanisms, meme coins, etc., making it difficult to achieve a strong industry consensus.
Internal Troubles of the Crypto Market: Time is the Only Test for Projects
Following the narrative, the various internal troubles of the crypto market are also laid bare.
"10·11 Crash" Took Away the Last Bit of Liquidity from the Crypto Market
The current cooling of trading and project development in the crypto market is directly attributed to the industry-wide crash on October 11.
According to multiple sources, the scale of capital liquidation during this industry-wide crash was at least $30-40 billion, equivalent to a reduction of about 1% in the overall scale of the cryptocurrency market in a single day; according to Coinglass alone, over 1.6 million people were liquidated; countless individuals watching their accounts go to zero permanently bid farewell to the high-risk zone of the crypto market.
It can be said that the "10·11 Crash" further exacerbated the already limited liquidity in the crypto market.
Incremental funds are unlikely to enter the crypto market in the short term due to this impact.
Crypto Market Hotspots Rotate, But Often Last No More Than a Week
The fragmentation of market hotspots is another significant manifestation of internal troubles.
Just a few days ago, the market was speculating on "the intentions of the two saints," playing with Chinese memes; now x402 has already started to recycle old ideas, attracting widespread attention across the internet; as the market fluctuates, saving and investing seems to have become the only choice for many.
Market hotspots dazzle the eyes, yet tear attention apart like scattered paper scraps, making it impossible to piece together a complete picture of the market.
Trump’s Series of TACO Dramas, Crypto Market is Being Ruined
Another internal trouble in the crypto market is the various TACO (Trump-style capitulation) dramas triggered by Trump's presidency.
From the tariff trade war that began in April to the subsequent postponement of high tariff policies; from the previously tense U.S.-China situation to the current meeting between the two heads of state, Trump always starts with "tough talk," causing the market to tremble and drop; then he performs a plot twist, pulling the financial and crypto markets out of a downward trend, resulting in a seemingly inexplicable but real rise.
The ongoing fluctuations in the crypto market since BTC broke new highs are closely related to Trump, who is highly active in the crypto market and has super influence, as well as insiders from the Trump family and faction.
In summary, if you are not "in the know," you are just an ATM for the "insiders."
Image Source: Odaily Planet Daily Reader Group - A10 Supercar Club
Financial Projects Flourishing, Crypto Circle Has Become a "Piggy Bank"
On one hand, the exhaustion of industry narratives has led many crypto projects into a competitive spiral, with severe homogenization; on the other hand, more and more projects are beginning to operate under the "financial project" model, backed by well-known investment institutions or boasting impressive backgrounds and ecological support, becoming one of the few focal points in the market.
Previously, Circle's listing surged nearly 10 times, the stablecoin issuance boom, and the generous airdrop of Plasma (XPL) have led more people to reluctantly believe that they can only exchange liquidity funds for economic returns.
The cryptocurrency market is no longer a testing ground for technology and innovation as it once was; instead, it increasingly resembles a giant "piggy bank." This morning, it was reported that the public sale of the Ethereum ecosystem's top project MegaETH has raised $1 billion (with an actual cap of $50 million), oversubscribed by 20 times.
In such a market environment, even the initial savings quota opened by a top project like Stable was filled with "mouse warehouses" （For further reading, see Stable's First Round of $825 Million Pre-deposits Sold Out Instantly, Releasing $700 Million Before Tweeting?）, it’s no wonder that many people are lamenting "money is running out" while painfully shouting "this market is truly hellishly difficult."
Conclusion: Cherish the Remaining Retail Investors in the Market, They Might Be the "Engine of the Next Bull Market"
Finally, from the perspective of a "crypto retail investor," I want to say to many crypto projects and trading platforms: cherish the retail investors who are still in the market now, as in the future, with the increasing penetration of cryptocurrencies, we will be among the few liquidity providers who have survived multiple industry tests and remain at the table.
Of course, I hope that the next bull market will be supported by project teams that have been in business for many years and possess real value; can I still count on you?
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