Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
On October 30, the China-U.S. talks concluded smoothly, but the performance of the crypto market was less than ideal.
BTC briefly fell below $108,000, currently reported at $111,424, with a 24-hour decline of 1.68%; ETH is currently reported at $3,941, with a 24-hour decline of 1.9%; SOL is currently reported at $195.9, and BNB is currently reported at $1,117, both of which have rebounded to recover their losses.
From the trend, SOL and BNB are still oscillating in a relatively strong range. Among them, Grayscale's Solana Trust ETF officially listed on the NYSE on October 29, becoming the second Solana spot ETF listed in the U.S. after Bitwise. According to SoSoValue data, the total net asset value of the Solana spot ETF is $432 million, with a Solana net asset ratio (the market value relative to Solana's total market value) reaching 0.40%, and a historical cumulative net inflow of $117 million.
In terms of derivatives, in the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount in the market was $813 million, with long positions liquidating $613 million and short positions liquidating $200 million. The largest single liquidation occurred on Bybit - BTCUSD worth $11 million. Recently, the market has been characterized by high volatility and oscillation, referred to by the community as a "monkey market," which has caused significant capital erosion.
In terms of capital inflow, the BTC spot ETF ended four consecutive days of net inflow, with a significant net outflow of $470 million yesterday; the ETH spot ETF has been relatively weak recently, and although there was also a net outflow yesterday, the extent was relatively limited.
On the macro level, two major events were settled today.
First, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. The Fed has reduced the benchmark interest rate to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second consecutive meeting of rate cuts. At the same time, it announced the end of balance sheet reduction starting December 1, with principal payments on agency debt and MBS to be fully reinvested in short-term Treasury bonds to maintain sufficient reserves and avoid liquidity crises.
Second, the China-U.S. talks progressed smoothly. According to CCTV reports, the two met in Busan, with the Chinese side emphasizing that "China's development and revitalization are not in conflict with President Trump's goal of making America great again; the two countries can completely achieve mutual success and common prosperity. China and the U.S. should be partners and friends, which is a lesson from history and a necessity of reality. We are willing to continue working with President Trump to lay a solid foundation for China-U.S. relations and create a good environment for the development of both our countries."
From this point, the market's focus shifts to whether there will be another rate cut in December. Fed Chair Powell stated at a press conference that the government shutdown will temporarily drag down economic activity, and data before the shutdown indicated that the economy might be moving toward a more stable trajectory. A rate cut in December is "not a done deal." This aligns perfectly with Powell's current stance—he cannot commit to anything in advance, especially given that the government shutdown has lasted a month and severely affected the release of economic data.
However, according to market news, the U.S. government has been shut down for nearly a month, and the situation seems to be finally changing. Senate Majority Leader John Thune and his Senate allies, House Speaker Mike Johnson, and other House Republican leaders seem increasingly convinced that more centrist Democrats are ready to compromise on a temporary funding bill to mitigate the impact of the shutdown, possibly as early as next week.
Inflation Insights analyst Omair Sharif believes that if there is still a lack of official economic data for October and November during the December meeting, the Fed may choose to "pause" due to a data vacuum, delaying the plan for a third consecutive rate cut. This is highly consistent with the internal divisions reflected in the September dot plot—the debate among officials regarding the pace of policy is heating up.
Nomura previously predicted that the Fed would cut rates again by 25 basis points in December. From the current situation, the federal funds futures market's expectation of another rate cut before the end of the year has dropped from 91% to about 72%.
On-chain battles: Whales "vote with their feet"
Under the influence of the Fed's expected 25 basis point rate cut and Powell's uncertainty about a December cut, whales on Hyperliquid are also "voting with their feet."
HyperInsight monitoring data shows:
- "Abraxas Capital" two addresses (0x5b5, 0xb83) began to increase their short positions in BTC, SOL, and ETH simultaneously from 0:00 today, with the total nominal value of the two addresses' holdings increasing from $690 million yesterday afternoon to $738 million;
- A new address whale "100% win rate counterparty" (0x218) continued to increase its short position in ETH yesterday, now with a floating return rate of 60%, an average holding price of $4,128, and a nominal holding value of about $28 million;
- "Calm Order King" (0x926) has turned from loss to profit overall, with a floating return rate of 40% on BTC short positions, an average holding price of $112,200, and a total nominal holding value of $78.6 million;
- "Four-time short BTC" whale (0x5D2), once the top BTC short position holder, has now turned its $136 million short position from loss to profit, with an average holding price of $114,000, and has not operated this morning as the market warmed up.
The long camp is also not to be outdone:
- "100% win rate" insider whale (0xc2a) opened a long position in BTC during the market downturn at 0:00 yesterday and increased its position against the trend, with an average holding price of $111,000, now with a nominal holding value of $113 million; additionally, it opened a long position in ETH at 4:00 today and rolled over its position, with an average holding price of $3,889, now with a nominal holding value of $5.274 million, bringing the total nominal holding value of this address to $277 million;
- "Suspected HYPE coin insider" whale (0x082) rolled over its position in XPL, Hyperliquid ecosystem meme coin PURR, etc., during the market downturn at 0:00 today, with a total nominal holding value of $59.48 million.
Overall, the position structure of on-chain whales remains bearish, with short positions slightly prevailing.
Market Voices
In this high-volatility environment, Bitcoin believer Michael Saylor expressed an optimistic prediction in an interview with CNBC, stating that Bitcoin's price could reach $150,000 by the end of the year, with a target of $1 million in the next 4 to 8 years.
Matrixport believes that Bitcoin's dominance has now risen to 59.5%, showing a gradual upward trend. The latest round of "small altcoin season" has cooled down, with market preference returning to Bitcoin. In this round of market activity, BTC's dominance has increased; this phenomenon may be related to the increased participation of institutions and the concentration of funds in high liquidity and clearer compliance assets.
10x Research stated in its latest report that Bitcoin is currently at a critical price range, and the next market movement will mainly depend on institutional capital inflows, especially the direction of Bitcoin ETF funds. The report pointed out that Bitcoin's sideways movement over the past five months is not due to market weakness, but rather a large-scale redistribution of holdings: early cycle "OG" investors continue to sell, while newly entering institutional funds are steadily absorbing the selling pressure. This "hand-off phase" has kept prices in a range of fluctuations rather than stagnating.
In terms of price, 10x Research views $110,000 as the "line of life and death": if Bitcoin holds the $110,000–$112,000 range, the upward trend can continue; if it falls below $110,000, risk management should be prioritized, and the market may see a rapid adjustment, with target ranges possibly dropping to around $85,000.
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