On October 29, 2025, the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Bill proposed by the French Parliament has become the focus of attention in the cryptocurrency market. This proposal not only marks a strategic layout of European countries regarding digital assets but also resonates with the accumulation behavior of global institutional investors and large holders, reinforcing market expectations for supply tightening.
1. Core Framework and Strategic Implications of the French Strategic Reserve Proposal
Background and Objectives. On October 28, the French Parliament reviewed a bill led by UDR party member Éric Ciotti to establish a national Bitcoin strategic reserve fund, aiming to accumulate 420,000 Bitcoins (2% of total supply, valued at approximately $48 billion) within 7 to 8 years, managed by public administrative agencies.
Funding Sources and Mechanism. Funding relies on France's nuclear and hydropower resources to support local mining, reducing procurement costs to $0.03 per kilowatt-hour (KuCoin Flash Report, October 28, 2025). The proposal prohibits the issuance of CBDCs and shifts support towards decentralized crypto assets.
Supporting Measures and Expected Impact. A regulatory sandbox mechanism will be introduced to attract crypto enterprises, expected to drive over €10 billion in investments (Yahoo Finance Analysis, October 28, 2025). The preliminary support rate within the UDR party reaches 80%, with member Ciotti stating on the X platform: "This move is a necessary step to maintain France's financial sovereignty, positioning Bitcoin as a strategic asset to hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks."
Strategic Interpretation. Reflects Europe's reflection on the traditional monetary system. The EU faces a 2.8% inflation rate pressure in the Eurozone, highlighting Bitcoin's "digital gold" attributes. If passed by Parliament in early 2026, it may trigger similar actions from other European countries, leading to a regional reserve competition.
2. Accumulation Dynamics of Institutional Investors and Whales
Key Actions at the Institutional Level
The release of the French proposal quickly stimulated global accumulation behavior.
● At the institutional level, BlackRock's IBIT Bitcoin ETF recorded $250 million in net inflows in the past 24 hours, increasing total holdings to over 350,000 Bitcoins.
● Ark Invest is also actively positioning, adding $120 million in Bitcoin positions through ETF channels.
Whale On-Chain Behavior
● On-chain data shows significant outflow activity from large holders (whales, addresses holding over 1,000 Bitcoins) between October 28 and 29, including multiple outflows exceeding 500 BTC, totaling approximately 2,763 Bitcoins, transferred to cold storage wallets, reinforcing supply tightening expectations.
● A typical case includes the BitcoinOG 1011short address, which transferred out 200 Bitcoins (valued at approximately $22.5 million) in the past 24 hours, with a total withdrawal of 400 Bitcoins in October.
● Another high-probability address, 0xc2a3, increased its holdings by 500 Bitcoins after closing some long positions, recording a profit of $1.4 million.
Main Body
Core Actions
Specific Data
BlackRock IBIT ETF
Increased Bitcoin Holdings
+2,500 Bitcoins (valued at $250 million), total holdings 350,000 Bitcoins
Ark Invest
ETF Channel Purchase
+1,200 Bitcoins ($120 million inflow)
BitcoinOG 1011short (Whale)
Transferred to Cold Storage
+200 Bitcoins ($22.5 million), total 400 Bitcoins in October
0xc2a3 (High Probability Whale)
Increased Holdings After Closing Longs
Net +500 Bitcoins, profit of $1.4 million
Multiple Whale Address Clusters
Net Withdrawals
+1,100 Bitcoins, total holdings surpassing 1-year average
Source: AiCoin Compilation
3. Market Impact Assessment
Price and Trading Aspects: Enhanced Supply Tightening Expectations
Supply Pressure: Continuous absorption at the national and institutional levels directly reduces the circulating supply on exchanges. Data shows that Bitcoin balances on exchanges are at their lowest in recent years. This "illiquidity" state is one of the core bullish logics in the long term.
Technical Formations: After experiencing volatility in early October, Bitcoin's price successfully held a key support level and briefly broke through $114,000. The next key resistance level of interest is around $117,500; if effectively broken, it may open up upward space towards $125,000.
On-Chain Fundamentals: Erosion and Restructuring of Long-Term Holder Confidence
Holding Changes: On one hand, some whales are actively increasing their positions; on the other hand, on-chain data captures another scene: long-term dormant wallets holding for 3-5 years have recently shown unusual activity, moving over 4,657 Bitcoins in a single transaction. This behavior typically indicates early investors taking profits or adjusting positions at high prices, potentially bringing short-term selling pressure but also injecting new liquidity into the market.
Network Health: The Bitcoin network's hash rate remains stable. If France's nuclear mining proposal is implemented, it is expected to contribute 5% of the global hash rate increment, further consolidating network security.
Funds and Liquidity: Institutional Channels Remain Open
ETF Dominated Inflows: Bitcoin spot ETFs achieved a total net inflow of $4.21 billion in October, completely reversing the net outflow trend of September. This is the most direct indicator of institutional bullish sentiment.
Altcoin ETF Expansion: The first batch of altcoin ETFs covering assets like Solana and Litecoin launched on October 28, with another 155 similar products awaiting approval. This indicates that significant liquidity is about to flow into a broader crypto market.
4. Market KOL Perspectives
● Arthur Hayes, Former BitMEX CEO:
He believes that Bitcoin's traditional "four-year cycle" has become ineffective, and future prices will be dominated by the global liquidity cycle (especially the monetary policies of China and the U.S.). As long as money printing continues, Bitcoin's upward trend will not change.
● Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO:
He proposed the "5.4-year cycle" theory, arguing that the global debt refinancing cycle is a key driving force. His model predicts that Bitcoin will reach a liquidity peak in Q2 2026, with target prices ranging from $200,000 to $450,000.
● Pierre Laurent, Researcher at CryptoFrance Institute:
He believes that the French proposal is a restructuring of the global monetary landscape. With the cost advantage of nuclear power, accumulating 420,000 Bitcoins will lock in supply, potentially driving the average price above $150,000 in 2026.
Current Market Sentiment Summary:
Overall sentiment leans towards cautiously optimistic, with FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment beginning to spread among retail investors. However, some seasoned traders and early investors exhibit more complex emotions, including profit-taking and concerns about high leverage risks.
5. Risk Considerations and Tracking Recommendations
In summary, the French Parliament's proposal and the global accumulation behavior of institutions together form a strong structural bullish narrative.
They simultaneously validate Bitcoin's attributes as "digital gold" and a store of value from sovereign and traditional financial perspectives.
However, investors must remain rational. The current positive sentiment is more reflected in emotions and expectations; a true bull market requires substantial and sustained capital inflows and a healthy macro environment to support it. It is recommended to maintain a long-term perspective, focusing on core data that determines long-term trends, such as Federal Reserve policies and ETF fund flows, while also paying attention to short-term hotspots.
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