The U.S. government shutdown has now lasted for 28 days. If it extends for another week, it will surpass the 35-day shutdown record set during Trump's first term. Currently, the market expects this shutdown could last up to 44 days, which means the fiscal shutdown has begun to affect government data releases and spending rhythms. In the absence of reference indicators, the market can only rely on liquidity and risk appetite for self-pricing.

In the short term, the extended shutdown has a limited impact on the overall U.S. economy. However, if it exceeds 40 days, delays in consumer confidence and employment data will weaken the predictability of the Federal Reserve's decision-making, thereby increasing market volatility. At this point, expectations for interest rate cuts may actually strengthen investors' risk appetite.

As the shutdown enters its fourth week, institutional investors are shifting their focus from the political deadlock itself to liquidity distribution and the performance of safe-haven assets. After hitting consecutive new highs, gold has seen profit-taking, while U.S. Treasury yields remain low, indicating that the market still bets on the Federal Reserve continuing to cut rates. Meanwhile, some funds have started to flow back into high-volatility assets, including BTC and the U.S. tech sector. In simpler terms, this reflects expectations for the Federal Reserve to continue cutting rates or halt balance sheet reduction.

Interestingly, this political deadlock has become a short-term support for risk markets. The shutdown forces a temporary slowdown in fiscal spending and eases inflationary pressures, providing the Federal Reserve with more room to cut rates. Although Trump cannot lay off workers during the shutdown, it has significantly impacted expectations regarding labor data.

If negotiations make no progress next week, investors are likely to reprice U.S. credit risk. Especially since next week marks a period of macroeconomic and earnings report releases, with the Federal Reserve's meeting concluding, U.S.-China talks wrapping up, and key stock earnings reports finishing, the market may refocus on the shutdown, increasing volatility in risk markets.

This article is sponsored by #Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh

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