Original author: Joel Khalili, Wired Magazine
Original translation: Saoirse, Foresight News
Truth Social is a social media platform primarily owned by U.S. President Donald Trump and his family, which is launching a cryptocurrency-based betting service that will directly compete with the popular Polymarket.
The new service, called "Truth Predict," will allow Truth Social users to place bets using cryptocurrency on the outcomes of specific events, covering areas such as sports competitions, political campaigns, and economic changes. Truth Social is operated by the publicly traded Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG).
Typically, individual predictions are presented in the form of binary questions, such as: "Will Taylor Swift release a new original song before October 2?" or "Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League?"
As the 2024 U.S. election approaches, prediction markets are entering the mainstream for the first time. Supporters claim that these markets are a superior alternative to traditional polls and serve as a more efficient "source of truth."
Devin Nunes, CEO of Trump Media & Technology Group, stated in a press release: "With Truth Predict, we are democratizing information, allowing the American public to leverage collective wisdom to turn free speech into actionable forward-looking judgments."
Truth Predict is being launched in collaboration with the affiliated entity of cryptocurrency exchange Crypto.com. Currently, the prediction market space is primarily dominated by Polymarket and Kalshi, both of which have recently completed funding rounds at valuations in the billions.
At the time of Truth Predict's launch, Polymarket was planning to return to the U.S. market—having previously been forced to exit during Joe Biden's administration. In 2022, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) accused Polymarket of operating an unregistered derivatives trading market, and Polymarket reached a settlement with the agency, with exiting the U.S. market being one of the conditions of the settlement.
In November 2024, the residence of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan was raided by the FBI. The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) was investigating whether the platform violated the injunction in the settlement agreement by continuing to accept bets from U.S. residents (Coplan was not arrested or charged).
The situation changed after Trump returned to the White House in January 2025. Under the Trump administration, regulators halted lawsuits against well-known cryptocurrency companies, and the DOJ instructed prosecutors to "look the other way" on certain cryptocurrency-related crimes.
In July of the same year, Bloomberg reported that the DOJ had concluded its investigation into Polymarket and had not filed any charges, clearing the way for the company to return to the U.S. market.
Zach Hamilton, founder of the cryptocurrency startup Sarcophagus, stated in an interview with Wired: "If you were to pinpoint a key reason for (cryptocurrency prediction markets) being able to return to the U.S., it would undoubtedly be the Trump administration—put simply, it’s Donald Trump himself."
In fact, prior to the launch of Truth Predict, the Trump family already held economic interests in the development of prediction markets in the U.S.
In January 2025, Donald Trump Jr. joined Kalshi as a strategic advisor; in August of the same year, Polymarket received investment from venture capital firm 1789 Capital, of which Donald Trump Jr. is a partner. As part of the deal, he also joined Polymarket's advisory board.
As Polymarket sought to return to the U.S. market, the Trump family established a connection with the platform. This situation has drawn close scrutiny from critics, who argue that this investment could constitute a conflict of interest. Critics claim that this deal creates an opportunity for the Trump family to profit from policy changes driven by the Trump administration.
Jeff Hauser, executive director of the Revolving Door Project (an organization dedicated to overseeing the behavior of elected officials), stated: "No one would say that in a capitalist country, the president's family cannot engage in normal capitalist activities. But Polymarket is in the midst of intense political controversy, so this investment reflects a significant conflict of interest—and this conflict could have been avoided."
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt responded in a statement to Wired: "The president and his family have never been, and will never be, involved in a conflict of interest."
As of now, Polymarket, Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), and 1789 Capital have not responded to requests for comment.
The launch of Truth Predict could also lead to different branches of the Trump family's business empire entering into direct competition.
Chris Perkins, managing partner at cryptocurrency venture capital firm CoinFund, stated: "From a venture capital perspective, many of us are reluctant to invest in projects that have competitive relationships and will try to avoid such situations—we will strive to identify 'category winners.'"
In fact, businesses associated with the Trump family have long been operating competing Bitcoin treasury companies; in June 2025, there was even a dispute over "which company has the right to launch the 'official' Trump-branded cryptocurrency wallet."
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