A nearly $500 million Bitcoin short position, along with another trader's record of 12 consecutive profitable trades, is revealing the deepest games in the cryptocurrency market.

Beneath the waves of the cryptocurrency market, an invisible war is unfolding. Over the past half month, two mysterious whales have engaged in a spectacular long-short battle with over $500 million in funds.

On one side is a collaborative team known as the "Insider Whale," which has made large short positions before key events with precise timing; on the other side is the "Smart Money" whale, operating independently and achieving a 100% win rate with 12 consecutive profitable trades, accumulating profits of over $12.6 million.

1. Whale Identities: The Invisible Hand Behind the Market

In the world of cryptocurrency, investors with large funds who can influence market direction are referred to as "whales." Recently, two addresses that have drawn market attention exhibit starkly different operational styles and impressive track records.

● Address 0xb317…83ae is marked by the market as the "Insider Whale." This address, along with two associated addresses, formed an operational matrix that accurately laid out short positions before the market crash on October 11. Monitoring shows that these three associated addresses totaled profits of over $160 million during the "black swan" event.

● Address 0xc2a3…e5f2 is known as "Smart Money" due to its astonishing win rate. According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, this whale has maintained a perfect record since October 11, with 12 trades all profitable, the most recent being a long position closed when BTC broke $111,000, yielding a profit of $1.774 million.

The two whales not only have different operational styles but also vary in fund scale. The table below compares their core characteristics in detail:

Comparison Dimensions

Insider Whale (0xb317)

Smart Money Whale (0xc2a3)

Operational Style

Multi-address collaborative operation

Independent decision-making, flexible shifts

Core Strategy

Event-driven high-leverage shorting

Long and short both profiting, short-term trading

Holding Period

Medium to long-term layout

Short-term volatility operations

Leverage Usage

10x full leverage

Moderate leverage, controllable risk

Fund Scale

Associated addresses hold $386 million USDC

Single address operation, smaller scale

Market Impact

Triggered insider trading suspicions

Seen as a market barometer

Source: Compiled by AiCoin

2. Complete Operation Record: Key Nodes and Precise Timing

The operations of the two whales over the past half month could almost be written into a textbook-level market strategy guide.

The Insider Whale's operational path shows precise event-driven characteristics:

● October 10: Collaborative addresses begin fund allocation, transferring large amounts from address 0x2ea1 to transit address 0x4f9

● Night before October 11: Precisely establish BTC, ETH, and SOL short positions before the market crash

● October 11: Gradually close positions, with the three associated addresses totaling profits of over $160 million

● October 14: Again establish a BTC short position worth $498 million

● October 20-22: Continuously increase short positions and deposit 3,003 BTC to Binance

● October 23: Close $227 million in short positions, profiting another $6.4 million

The Smart Money Whale, on the other hand, demonstrates a completely different operational philosophy:

● October 15: Keenly captures market turning point, opening a $140 million BTC short position

● October 16: Timely shifts, going long on BTC and holding for 5 days

● October 22-23: Continuously switch between long and short, exiting all trades profitably

● October 24: Influenced by news of the US-China leaders' meeting, closes long position for a profit of $1.774 million when BTC breaks $111,000

● Continuing until October 27: Maintains a perfect record, 12 trades without a loss

The detailed operation records of the two whales reveal their different understandings of the market and response strategies:

Time Nodes

Insider Whale Operations

Smart Money Whale Operations

Market Environment

October 10-11

Collaboratively establish short positions

No recorded operations yet

Night before market crash

October 15

Holds large short positions

Opens $140 million short position

Market in turbulent decline

October 16-21

Maintains short position

Goes long and holds

Market gradually rebounds

October 22-23

Closes short positions profitably

Switches between long and short, all profitable

Market direction choice

October 24

No new operations disclosed

Closes long position for $1.774 million profit

BTC breaks previous high

October 27

Associated addresses hold $386 million USDC

Continues to maintain perfect record

Market high volatility

3. Market Impact Analysis: How Whale Operations Disturb the Crypto Ecosystem

Price and Trading Aspects

● The concentrated operations of whales have a significant impact on short-term market prices. When the Insider Whale established 4,348.74 BTC short positions worth up to $492 million on October 14, such a scale of position itself would create downward pressure on the market.

● More importantly, when these whales choose to close their positions, it also has a major impact on the market. On October 23, as the two major $100 million BTC short positions were collectively closed, it injected a shot of adrenaline into the recently volatile crypto market, temporarily halting the market fluctuations targeting BTC.

On-chain Fund Flow

● Whale activities reflect new trends in on-chain fund flows. According to tracking data, the Insider Whale's associated addresses currently still hold about $386 million USDC in liquid funds. The movement of this "ammunition" is worth close attention.

● When these addresses begin to transfer stablecoins on a large scale, it often signals that new market operations are about to unfold. For example, after the Insider Whale deposited $80 million USDC into the platform on October 10, it immediately opened short positions of about 3,700 BTC.

● The whales also demonstrate refined fund management strategies in their operations. The Insider Whale transferred large amounts of funds from address (0x2eA) to transit address (0x4f9) on October 10, which then injected funds multiple times into trading address (0xb317). This clearly defined flow of funds shows a highly specialized operational characteristic.

Investor Sentiment and Market Tracking

● Whale operations have led to a clear divergence in market sentiment. Some investors view these whales as "Smart Money," attempting to track their operations; others question market fairness, believing insider trading undermines the decentralized nature of the crypto market.

● Currently, the holdings of whales have become a reference indicator for many investors' decisions. Especially when multiple whales act in sync, it is easier to trigger a herd effect among retail investors, amplifying market volatility.

● At the same time, regulatory agencies have begun to pay attention to such large-scale operations. A financial regulatory agency in a certain country has referred a group of individuals suspected of price manipulation and improper trading in the virtual asset market to judicial authorities, while deciding to impose fines on some involved parties.

4. Whale Identity Doubts: Frontline Figures and Behind-the-Scenes Tycoons

Frontline Figure: Garrett Jin

● The community previously speculated that the whale who opened a massive short position on Hyperliquid three days in advance and profited $200 million might be Garrett Jin, the former CEO of Bitforex. The reason is that the whale's address has financial ties to Garrett Jin, and he immediately changed his Telegram privacy settings after the exposure.

However, Garrett Jin himself responded on October 13, stating that he is not the actual operator but merely provides research services for client assets. He emphasized, "The related funds do not belong to him personally, but are client assets."

Regulatory Attention and Market Manipulation Suspicions

● The operations of these whales have also attracted the attention of regulatory agencies. According to reports, a financial regulatory agency in a certain country revealed at a press conference that it has investigated a large investor referred to as a "whale," who used hundreds of billions of local currency to artificially inflate the prices of multiple cryptocurrencies, illegally profiting billions.

The investor's operational methods include: placing a large number of buy orders to create a buying frenzy, and after other investors follow suit, quickly selling all holdings for profit. They even transferred tokens previously purchased on overseas cryptocurrency exchanges to domestic platforms for sale, thereby manipulating the market.

● Additionally, regulatory agencies have also investigated a case of improper trading that profited from spreading false positive information via social media. This marks the first time regulatory authorities have monitored social media platforms to investigate and address unfair trading behaviors in the virtual asset field.

5. Risk Warnings and Dynamic Tracking

Systemic Risks of Insider Trading:

● If these whales indeed rely on insider information for trading, it indicates a serious information asymmetry in the crypto market. Once the relevant information sources dry up or regulatory intervention occurs, it could trigger a chain reaction.

High Leverage Position Liquidation Risks:

● The Insider Whale operates with a 10x leverage full position model, which amplifies profits but also increases liquidation risks. If the market reverses by 7.8%, their positions will face liquidation.

Market Manipulation Suspicions:

● The whales' collaborative operations through associated addresses possess a certain degree of market manipulation capability. Ordinary investors who blindly follow may become "bag holders."

Regulatory Agency Responses:

● As these insider trading suspicions escalate, regulatory agencies in various countries may intervene for investigation. Particularly, the precise timing of operations involving political events may trigger broader political attention.

Future Operations of Whales:

● It is essential to closely monitor the next moves of these addresses. The Insider Whale's associated address (0x4f9) still holds about $386 million USDC in liquid funds, and the flow of these funds will influence market direction.

Market Sentiment Comparison

The table below summarizes the current sentiments and strategies of different market participants:

Market Participants

Current Sentiment

Main Strategies

Risk Appetite

Whales

Clear divergence

Long and short operations

High leverage, high risk

Institutional Investors

Cautiously optimistic

Follow trends, build positions in batches

Moderate risk

Retail Investors

Confused and following trends

Tracking whale addresses

High risk, blind following

Market Makers

Neutral

Providing liquidity, earning spreads

Low risk

Source: Compiled by AiCoin

The battle between these whales is far from over. The Insider Whale's $386 million USDC ammunition hangs over the market like the sword of Damocles, while the Smart Money Whale's record of 12 consecutive wins continues.

How will this whale battle conclude? For ordinary investors, understanding the thinking logic and operational strategies of whales is far more valuable than blindly following trends. In this information-asymmetric market, maintaining independent thinking and strict risk control is the key to long-term survival.

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