Original Title: Hype, Infra, Adoption: Will x402 Make it?
Original Author: 100y.eth, Four Pillars
Original Translation: Saoirse, Foresight News
Key Points
· In the cryptocurrency industry, most new concepts go through three stages: "hype, infrastructure development, and application adoption." However, most concepts fail to successfully transition from the hype stage to the infrastructure stage, ultimately losing market attention.
· x402 is an AI agent payment protocol developed by Coinbase that allows AI agents to autonomously complete payments and acquire paid resources via blockchain without human intervention.
· Recent surges in the prices of tokens related to x402 indicate that the protocol has entered the hype stage; however, unlike other crypto concepts, giants like Cloudflare, Google Cloud, and Anthropic are actively adopting x402, rapidly advancing its infrastructure development stage.
· Considering the potential of agent commerce, x402 is likely to enter the application stage, but the bottleneck lies in the shift in consumer psychology and trust systems. Accenture data shows that the biggest barrier to the large-scale application of agent commerce is consumer distrust of AI agents.
· However, Gartner predicts that by 2030, transaction volumes dominated by AI agents will reach $30 trillion, and agent commerce will become an inevitable massive market in the future. At that time, the blockchain industry will find its second global "product-market fit (PMF)" through x402, following stablecoins.
Cycle of Hype, Infrastructure, and Application
The "Survival Test" of New Concepts
The cryptocurrency industry is ever-changing, and the rise and fall cycles of new concepts often last less than a few months, with the concentration and dissipation of attention far exceeding that of other industries. From a macro perspective, popular concepts like NFTs, gaming, the metaverse, and modular blockchains have all experienced this pattern; from a micro perspective, the recent "Futarchy" is a typical example—briefly rising before quickly fading from market visibility.
Due to the constant emergence of new concepts in the crypto industry, a concept must overcome multiple obstacles to achieve true "application landing." I summarize this process into three stages:
· Hype Stage: The period when a new concept first gains widespread attention. During this stage, even existing projects with only a weak association to the concept, newly launched small projects, and related meme coins often see price surges of several dozen to even hundreds of percent. If the concept successfully transitions to the next stage, the price may stabilize; but in most cases, the price will plummet within weeks or months, and related projects will disappear.
· Infrastructure Stage: Once the potential and practicality of a new concept are validated, developers will begin to create products of actual value based on that concept. Product development takes a long time (ranging from several months to over a year), so vague or weak concepts often "die" in this stage. However, if the concept is genuinely meaningful, it will maintain stable attention during this stage, create actual application scenarios, and the entire field will gradually develop and grow.
· Application Stage: Concepts that reach this stage are truly "rare gems"! In the crypto field, only a few concepts like automated market makers (AMMs), central limit order books (CLOBs), lending protocols, staking-related protocols, and stablecoins have reached this stage. Concepts that enter the application stage have validated their "product-market fit (PMF)" and will continuously see new protocols emerge while attracting a large number of users to actively participate.
Typical Cases in the Crypto Industry
So, what stages are the popular topics recently gaining attention on crypto social platforms currently in?
· Futarchy: As mentioned earlier, Futarchy entered the hype stage due to mention by Vitalik, then the heat faded; recently, it briefly warmed up again through Solana's ICO platform, but lost favor once more within just a few weeks. The core reason is that Futarchy involves a complex governance system, and without a transformation in human societal concepts over generations, large-scale application is difficult to achieve.
· Decentralized Energy: Decentralized energy entered the hype stage last year due to several companies receiving first-line venture capital investments. Recently, Daylight received $75 million in investments from Framework and a16zcrypto, briefly igniting market interest, but attention did not sustain. Fundamentally, decentralized energy requires physical infrastructure support, and its infrastructure development stage will inevitably take a long time.
· Robotics (Crypto x Robotics): The development path of robotics is similar to the above cases. When the "crypto + AI" concept was gaining popularity, the "crypto + robotics" project Openmind raised $20 million from institutions like Pantera, sparking interest in the robotics field. Subsequently, many small and medium-sized projects and meme coins saw price surges, but entering the application stage will still take time. However, given the enormous potential of the "crypto + robotics" concept, many developers, including Openmind, are actively advancing product development.
From these cases, it is evident that in the crypto industry, a new concept faces significant challenges in moving from "birth" to "application landing."
However, the x402 protocol, which has recently seen a surge in popularity on crypto social platforms, seems poised to quickly break through this "curse" and smoothly enter the application stage. So, what makes x402 special?
Can the x402 Protocol Succeed?
Overview of the x402 Protocol
The x402 protocol is an open payment protocol developed by Coinbase, with the core function of allowing AI agents to autonomously complete payments and transactions without human intervention. Through x402, AI agents can use stablecoins to pay for services across multiple blockchain networks, with the advantage of "instant settlement," avoiding complex processes like account registration, subscription activation, and API key configuration.
Source: Coinbase
HTTP 402 is a network status code indicating "payment required," but has rarely been used in practice for a long time. The x402 protocol leverages this status code: when an AI agent sends an API request, the server returns an HTTP 402 status code, indicating "payment required to continue"; upon recognizing this prompt, the AI agent will automatically pay the corresponding fee using stablecoins. The specific process is as follows:
When the AI agent attempts to access paid services like news, API interfaces, or data, the server returns the "HTTP 402 Payment Required" status code. This response not only includes the "payment required" prompt but also key information such as payment methods, payment amounts, and recipient wallet addresses.
The AI agent generates a transaction for the corresponding amount based on the information provided by the server, adds a digital signature, and sends it back to the server.
The server passes the transaction to a "Facilitator," who verifies the payment's validity and completes the transaction on the blockchain.
Once the payment is completed, the server grants the AI agent access to the paid service.
The value of x402 goes far beyond "providing a payment standard for AI agents." Since payments are made using blockchain stablecoins, it achieves the previously difficult "micropayment" functionality—AI agents can call APIs or pay for services in real-time based on actual usage; at the same time, human users can bypass complex steps like API key management and account registration to directly obtain content through micropayments.
Has Entered the Hype Stage
Source: a16zcrypto
The x402 protocol was launched in May 2025 and initially received moderate attention. However, after being mentioned in a16z's report "The State of Cryptocurrency in 2025: A Year of Mainstream Adoption," the protocol's popularity surged. Gartner predicts that by 2030, the market size for agent commerce will reach $30 trillion, while a16z points out that x402 is expected to become the core payment channel for AI agents.
The most direct signal that x402 has entered the hype stage is the surge in prices of related tokens. For example, the token $VIRTUAL, which often rises in tandem with the "AI agent" concept, saw a 40% increase within just two days; other related tokens also experienced significant price increases, as shown in the following chart.
On the surface, x402 seems no different from other "hype-driven" crypto concepts—hollow, superficial, and entirely driven by market heat. In fact, many new crypto concepts do follow this path: prices of small projects and meme coins surge, only to quickly return to silence.
However, x402 fundamentally differs from these concepts: first, "AI agent payments" not only have high relevance in the crypto field but also possess actual value in the entire AI industry, making it a "potential" theme; second, many Web2 companies are actively paying attention to and adopting x402. These factors suggest that x402 may not remain in the hype stage for long but rather quickly transition to the infrastructure development stage.
Infrastructure Development Stage in Progress
Currently, the x402 protocol is simultaneously in the "hype stage" and the "infrastructure stage." In fact, even before entering the hype stage, many Web2 and Web3 companies had already begun building infrastructure for x402 and integrating it into their services. Therefore, it is more accurate to say that x402 started from the "infrastructure stage."
Interestingly, unlike typical crypto concepts, x402 has attracted the attention of many Web2 tech giants, and these companies have begun to actively adopt the protocol.
Cloudflare
Cloudflare is a company that provides internet infrastructure and security solutions, and recently launched services like "Agents SDK" (helping developers quickly create and deploy AI agents) and "Workers AI" (an AI model inference runtime environment).
Cloudflare and Coinbase have jointly launched the "x402 Foundation," which is highly active within the x402 ecosystem. Their "Agents SDK" service has integrated the x402 protocol, enabling AI agents to easily complete payments over the internet.
Notably, Cloudflare has recently introduced a dollar stablecoin called "NET Dollar," specifically designed for AI agents. In the future, AI agents developed using the "Agents SDK" will be able to engage in agent commerce activities through the x402 protocol and NET Dollar.
Vercel
Vercel is a cloud platform company that primarily helps developers quickly build and deploy web applications. Recently, Vercel launched services such as "Vercel AI SDK" and "Vercel MCP"—the former facilitates developers in building and deploying AI agents, while the latter supports accessing projects through the MCP interface. In September 2025, Vercel released the x402-mcp tool, allowing AI agents to automatically complete payments via x402 when accessing paid APIs or resources through MCP.
Google Cloud
Google Cloud previously launched the A2A protocol (AI agent communication collaboration protocol), which includes an extension module called "AP2 (Agent Payment Protocol)" that supports autonomous payments by AI agents. The x402 protocol has been integrated into this system, serving as a "payment engine" to assist AI agents in completing actual transactions.
Anthropic
Anthropic is a well-known AI company that developed the Claude large language model (LLM), which users can utilize to build AI agent services. Additionally, Anthropic has introduced an open-source standard called "MCP"—this protocol defines the rules for AI models to access external tools and data. Currently, Claude MCP supports the x402 protocol, meaning that Claude can automatically complete payments when accessing paid MCP tools.
Visa
As the world's largest credit card payment network, Visa recently announced a collaboration with Cloudflare to develop a "Trusted Agent Protocol." This protocol can verify the credibility of AI requests in agent commerce and supports payments through the x402 protocol.
Other Participants
According to a Coinbase announcement, companies like Circle and AWS are also collaborating with the x402 protocol.
In addition to support from enterprises and protocol layers, developer tools are gradually emerging, such as x402scan. This browser tool visualizes servers, transaction records, and payment processes that utilize x402, helping users clearly understand "which services are paid for through which facilitators and on which networks." As the x402 ecosystem continues to expand, more companies and tools are expected to join, further enriching the ecosystem.
Can x402 Enter the Application Stage?
Still a Gap to the Application Stage
Source: x402scan
From the surge in related token prices and the adoption by major players, x402 has simultaneously covered the "hype stage" and the "infrastructure stage." However, the key question for x402 is: can it successfully transition into the "application stage"?
According to data from x402scan, as of now, approximately 55,000 buyers have initiated 879,000 transactions with 1,000 sellers. While the transaction volume seems considerable, the total transaction amount is only about $923,000—this scale indicates that x402 still has a significant gap to bridge before reaching the "application stage."
Key Conditions for Entering the Application Stage
What conditions must x402 meet to enter the application stage? The most frequently mentioned core factors are "consumer psychology" and "trust systems." Even for practitioners like me who have long followed x402, while I can accept AI agents providing recommendations in business scenarios, I still have concerns about entrusting funds entirely to AI agents.
Currently, even the most advanced large language models occasionally produce erroneous information or unexpected results. From a psychological perspective, consumers find it difficult to trust AI agents developed based on such models to handle payment transactions. In fact, a survey by Accenture of financial institutions shows that 87% of respondents believe "customer distrust of AI payments" is a core issue; 78% of respondents worry that "AI robots may make unauthorized payments or engage in fraud."
The second key factor is the "current state of enterprise infrastructure." Accenture data indicates that 85% of financial institutions report that their existing legacy systems cannot accommodate the demand for "large-scale agent payments." Among these, "the lack of systems to address agent payment fraud" is one of the main obstacles preventing the industry from entering the application stage.
In summary, for x402 to enter the application stage, enterprises need to build optimized systems that are compatible with agent commerce while also fostering consumer trust in these systems. However, both infrastructure development and shifts in consumer psychology require a long time—therefore, the process for x402 to enter the application stage may take longer than expected.
Significance for the Blockchain Industry
Gartner predicts that by 2030, AI agents will influence a procurement scale of $30 trillion. Although the AI agent payment market is still in its early stages, the x402 protocol has already shown potential to "become an industry standard"—this is evidenced by tech giants like Google, Anthropic, and Cloudflare adopting x402 for AI agent payment operations.
As the activity level of the x402 ecosystem increases, what changes can the crypto market expect? One highly likely prediction is that the recent surge in prices of x402-related tokens may not be sustainable in the long term. Since the rise of the "crypto + AI" field, this sector has gradually developed into a concept with actual significance, leading to multiple innovative initiatives; however, looking back at history, tokens of small projects and meme coins that surged during the initial hype stage often performed poorly afterward.
Source: x402scan
The clear value that x402 brings to the blockchain industry is that all AI agent payments will be completed on blockchain networks. Currently, most transactions occur on the Base network, with a few on the Solana network; however, the x402 protocol was designed from the outset to follow the principle of "blockchain agnosticism," making it adaptable to any blockchain network. This means that as the x402 ecosystem expands, payment activities will no longer be limited to Base and Solana—but will cover more blockchain networks driven by supply and demand between buyers and sellers.
Agent commerce is an inevitable massive market in the future, and all payments will ultimately be completed through the x402 protocol on the blockchain. At that time, the blockchain industry will find its second global "product-market fit (PMF)" through x402, following stablecoins.
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