Original Author: cyclop (@nobrainflip)

Translation｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina); Translator｜Azuma (@azumaeth)_

Editor's Note: The public offering of MegaETH (MEGA) will officially start tonight at 21:00 Beijing time, and discussions are heating up. Should you participate? What are the expected returns? Can it replicate the previous miracle of Plasma (XPL)?

In the following text, overseas KOL cyclop (@nobrainflip) shares his views on this round of public offering. Unlike the FOMO rhetoric, cyclop believes that given the current oversubscription ratio, valuation growth potential, and public offering rule design, the wealth effect of the MEGA public offering may not be as exaggerated as many think, especially for retail investors without additional influence and prior participation records.

Below is the original content by cyclop, translated by Odaily Planet Daily.

If you have been following discussions on cryptocurrency social media recently, you must have seen countless posts about the MegaETH (MEGA) public offering.

Where does this wave of enthusiasm come from? Why are so many people paying attention to this public offering? The answer is quite simple — the only place retail investors can make money recently is through ICOs (token public offerings).

Meme tokens are struggling, altcoin market caps continue to hit new lows, and the significant drop on October 11 further drained retail liquidity. At this point, blindly holding random coins is a disaster. But if you just hold stablecoins and focus on new offerings? You might be able to double or triple your investment portfolio in just two to three months.

Market sentiment has shifted — we have already entered the ICO explosion phase of this cycle. Among various new offering platforms, Echo's popularity is particularly high. Why is that? Because Echo's last public offering, Plasma (XPL), yielded quite impressive returns.

In that round of XPL, for every $1 subscribed, you could earn at least $1.5, with no limit on the scale — because the valuation of XPL skyrocketed over 30 times after its launch (public offering valuation was $500 million, and the FDV once exceeded $15 billion), while the subscription scale was "only" oversubscribed by 20 times.

More importantly, anyone had the opportunity to participate in the public offering, without needing on-chain qualifications, social influence, or ecosystem relationships. As long as you passed Echo's KYC verification and made a deposit (although it was first-come, first-served, there was a full 30-minute operational window in the second phase).

The question arises, will MEGA replicate the miracle of XPL? Will everyone make money this time?

To give you my direct answer — No!

The reason XPL had such a remarkable wealth effect is that at that time, Echo and the entire ICO market had not yet taken off. The total subscription amount for the XPL public offering was $1 billion, oversubscribed by 20 times, with no weighting factor, and the quota was allocated evenly based on the subscription scale.

In this round of MEGA's public offering, Polymarket has already predicted that the total subscription amount will exceed $2.5 billion, and more realistically, it is close to $3-4 billion, which means the oversubscription will reach 60-80 times — based on a maximum public offering valuation of nearly $999 million, this public offering plans to sell 5% of the tokens, with a maximum fundraising target of about $50 million. Meanwhile, the current pre-market valuation of MEGA has "only" about 4.5 times the growth potential compared to the public offering valuation.

If MEGA's quota is also allocated evenly based on the subscription scale (which it realistically won't be, but this is to highlight the "many monks and little meat" situation), for every $1 subscribed, you would actually only get back about $0.056 - $0.075 in profit (the original data was $0.04, which seems to have a calculation error). In contrast, for XPL's public offering, every $1 subscribed could earn $1.5, showing a clear difference.

MegaETH has disclosed that the minimum allocation for each winning account is $2,650, which roughly means a minimum profit of about $10,000, but let's do some simple calculations:

• If each winning account receives the minimum allocation of $2,650, there would be about 18,867 winning accounts;
• If each winning account receives an allocation of $5,000, there would be about 10,000 winning accounts;
• However, the number of registered participants on the first day of the public offering has already exceeded 100,000, and it is expected that 400,000 to 500,000 people will participate.

In simple terms, only about 1 in 50 people will be able to win and receive an allocation.

To put it more bluntly, you cannot just rely on "throwing money + praying" to expect to make money. Whether you invest $10,000 or $186,282 (the maximum investment limit), if you don't win, you get nothing.

I believe MegaETH will prioritize screening subscription users based on specific criteria, such as:

• Whether there is media exposure or community influence;
• Whether there is a deep on-chain activity record;

The project party will prioritize these groups rather than providing a certain quota for everyone.

So who can really make money through the public offering?

• If you meet the potential preferred criteria (media presence, on-chain activity record) — it is entirely possible to earn tens of thousands of dollars in a day;
• If you are a true MegaETH OG — you certainly deserve an allocation;
• But if you are just a retail investor with no advantages, only randomly investing in stablecoins — the expected return may be zero.

To summarize, this is the consistent logic of the cryptocurrency market: If you are not an early bird, then you are someone else's exit liquidity.

The best time to enter the ICO explosion phase was during the XPL public offering; that was when you should have gone all in. If you are just waking up now, it may be too late. Ultimately, the MEGA public offering is not a lottery; there will be a screening mechanism. Its purpose is not to benefit the masses but to concentrate real profits in the hands of a few.

Do not always mistake hype for opportunity. This is not the second XPL; it is just another round of FOMO. 95% of people will walk away empty-handed, and only 5% can earn above-average returns.

And the harsh truth is — you already know which side you belong to.

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