A Bitcoin wallet that had been dormant for 14.4 years suddenly activated, transferring 150 BTC. This batch of ancient Bitcoin moved on the blockchain for the first time, sparking immense curiosity within the crypto community. A dormant address holding 4,000 BTC (worth approximately $440 million) was activated last night, moving 150 BTC (about $16.56 million) for the first time in about 14.4 years.
This on-chain activity was quickly captured by blockchain monitoring platforms and sparked widespread discussion in the crypto community. Any movement from wallets that have remained silent since the Satoshi era can trigger sensitive nerves in the market.
1. Event Review: The Awakening of Ancient Whales
In the Bitcoin ecosystem, sudden activity from long-dormant addresses always attracts significant market attention, especially those traceable to the early "Satoshi era." According to AiCoin monitoring, on October 24, a Bitcoin wallet that had been silent for about 14.4 years was activated for the first time. This wallet had never moved since its creation and contained 4,000 BTC, valued at up to $440.4 million at current prices.
Table: Recent Events of Ancient Bitcoin Wallet Awakening
Date
Bitcoin Involved
Value at the Time
Key Information
October 24, 2025
4,000 BTC (150 BTC transferred)
Approximately $440.2 million
A wallet created around June 27, 2011, was activated after 14.3 years of dormancy, transferring only 150 BTC to a new address, with the remaining as "change" returned to the original system.
October 15, 2025
20,000 BTC
Approximately $2.18 billion
Two wallets that each received 10,000 BTC in April 2011 were activated simultaneously within 30 minutes after 14 years and 7 months of dormancy, transferring their entire balance.
May 31, 2025
221.99 BTC
Over $23 million
Four vintage wallets from 2011 moved funds for the first time in nearly 14 years.
March 24, 2025
100 BTC
Approximately $850,000
A wallet created in August 2011 transferred all funds after nearly 14 years.
Source: Compiled by AiCoin
In this activation, the wallet owner only moved 150 BTC (approximately $16.56 million) to a new address, while the remaining 3,850 BTC remained untouched in the original address. Blockchain data shows that the whale's other wallet previously received 4,050 BTC and maintained a long-term selling strategy.
2. Market Impact: Interwoven Factors
Price and Trading Aspects
● The Bitcoin market is currently experiencing a sensitive period, with prices fluctuating between $100,000 and $110,000. On the same day the ancient wallet was activated, Bitcoin's price briefly surged, reaching the $111,000 mark, with a 24-hour increase of 2.72%.
On-Chain Fundamentals
The activity of ancient wallets is not an isolated event. Recently, several long-dormant addresses have awakened in succession, forming a pattern.
● The movement of these early addresses may indicate that early holders are preparing for the next market cycle or believe that the technological infrastructure has developed to a stage worth managing their assets again.
● Meanwhile, a mysterious whale transferred 5.88 billion dollars worth of 5,252 BTC to major exchanges including Coinbase, Binance, and Kraken.
● Market analysts point out that such large-scale capital inflows typically indicate the holder's intention to sell or hedge positions, increasing selling pressure in the market.
Capital and Liquidity
The flow of funds presents a complex situation.
● Last week, Bitcoin ETFs faced large-scale redemptions totaling $946 million, with U.S. funds accounting for the majority, selling approximately $621 million in a single week.
● However, European investors showed the opposite trend, with investors from Germany, Switzerland, and Canada jointly buying $144 million in the aftermath of a nearly $19 billion market liquidation event on October 10.
The regional differences in capital flow highlight the divergence among different market participants regarding current price levels.
BlackRock and Grayscale were most severely affected by capital outflows, with total losses exceeding $1 billion.
Table: Key On-Chain Data and Market Indicator Monitoring
Monitoring Indicator
Current Data/Status
Signal Interpretation
Ancient Wallet Movement
150 BTC (worth approximately $16.56 million)
Neutral to cautious: small test transfer, not a full sell-off
Whale Exchange Deposits
$588 million (5,252 BTC)
Bearish: large amounts of BTC entering exchanges usually indicate selling intentions
ETF Capital Flow
Net outflow of $946 million in a single week
Bearish: institutional capital withdrawing in the short term, putting pressure on the market
Bitcoin Holding Distribution
Approximately 85% of BTC has not moved for over a year
Bullish: strong belief in long-term holding, reducing circulating supply
Short-Term Price Support
$107,400 - $104,400
Key area: losing this support could trigger further declines
Source: Compiled by AiCoin
Industry and Sentiment
● Market sentiment is currently cautious, with investors showing indecision near the $110,000 mark. If this area cannot be re-established as a support level, it may further validate bearish patterns.
● The emergence of a bearish flag pattern suggests that BTC prices may test the $100,000 support level, with a target price of approximately $98,000 based on the pattern breakout.
3. Analyst Opinions: Divergence in Market Views
● On-chain detectives point out that the small transfer from the ancient wallet may be merely a technical operation rather than a market operation.
“These early holders typically have a strong belief in Bitcoin, and their cost basis is very low; market fluctuations rarely affect their decision-making logic. They may just be conducting wallet maintenance or asset reorganization.”
● “Macro Analyst V” focuses on broader market dynamics: “The U.S. Bitcoin ETF products have seen unusual large-scale capital outflows, recording approximately HKD 9.6 billion in outflows in a single week, marking the second-largest outflow since the product's launch last year.
This raises concerns that market investment sentiment is gradually shifting from caution to panic, and the wave of selling may spread to other financial assets.”
● Institutional strategist Geoffrey Kendrick from Standard Chartered Bank agrees with this viewpoint.
“Even if Bitcoin breaks through the psychological barrier of $100,000 is ‘almost inevitable,’ we believe this round of decline will not last long and advise investors to seize the opportunity to enter the market.
As investors react to trade conditions, Bitcoin may briefly dip below the $100,000 mark, before challenging historical highs again.”
4. Risk Warning: Increased Market Uncertainty
Potential Risks
Investors should be wary of the following risks:
● Whale Concentration Action Risk — A mysterious whale has transferred BTC worth $588 million to exchanges and opened a new short position of $234 million on the Hyperliquid platform at approximately $111,190 per BTC.
This action indicates confidence in the continuation of the downward trend and may trigger a follow-the-leader effect.
● Market Liquidity Tightening Risk — The investment market is experiencing a wave of cashing out, with gold prices having fallen from a historical high of $4,380 to the edge of $4,000.
This wave of cashing out may spread to the cryptocurrency market, leading to further price pressure.
● Technical Breakdown Risk — Bitcoin has shown technical weakness after breaking through key short-term support levels; if the $107,400 support fails, it may further test levels of $104,400 or even $101,100.
Dynamic Tracking
In the coming days, several key indicators are worth closely monitoring:
● U.S. CPI Data and Federal Reserve Policy Trends — The September CPI data, to be released at 8:30 PM Beijing time tonight, will provide significant insights into the inflation data amid the federal government shutdown and the absence of several important economic data points.
The market expects a 3.1% year-on-year increase in September CPI; if the number meets or falls below expectations, it will further strengthen the expectations for a rate cut next week and benefit Bitcoin's price rebound.
● Final Destination of Ancient Bitcoins — The key is to determine whether these moved Bitcoins will enter exchanges for sale.
Current on-chain data shows no immediate selling activity from the target address, but traders should continue to closely monitor these wallets to see if they will further transfer to exchange-related addresses.
5. Conclusion and Outlook: The Battle for Key Support Levels
The Bitcoin market is at a critical crossroads. On one hand, the awakening of ancient wallets suggests that early holders may be adjusting their positions; on the other hand, the pressure from institutional capital withdrawing on a large scale is evident.
● The release of U.S. CPI data tonight may serve as a catalyst for the market's short-term direction. If the data reinforces expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, Bitcoin is likely to regain upward momentum; conversely, if the data exceeds expectations, Bitcoin may test the psychological support level of $100,000.
● Additionally, whether seasonal factors can play a role again will be a key focus for the market for the remainder of the year.
Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered Bank, reiterated that the year-end Bitcoin price target remains at $200,000, even in the most pessimistic scenario, the year-end price could still be well above $150,000.
● However, achieving this target hinges on the Federal Reserve continuing to cut rates to meet market expectations. In the short term, the market's technical outlook is weak, with the $100,000 mark becoming a battleground for both bulls and bears. CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno pointed out: “$100,000 is not only a psychological support area but also the price level of the 365-day moving average; if this area collapses, selling pressure may accelerate.”
Blockchain detectives continue to track the final destination of these ancient Bitcoins. Whether they will enter exchanges for sale or simply be transferred to safer wallets will directly impact the short-term market trend.** Market participants are holding their breath in anticipation.**
On one hand, the awakening of ancient whales suggests that early holders may be preparing for the next market cycle; on the other hand, the outcome of the tug-of-war around the $110,000 mark will determine the overall market direction for the fourth quarter.
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