Don't worry about not having friends on the road ahead; on the investment path, there are like-minded companions. Good afternoon, everyone! I am the King of Coins from the Coin Victory Group. Thank you all for coming here to watch the articles and videos from the King. Every day, I bring you different news from the crypto world and precise market analysis. Today, we won't do any roundabout analyses; let's chat casually and clarify the recent happenings in the crypto space—from the imminent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to the concerning trends of Bitcoin, and how to avoid the "pits" in the market. We'll cover it all!

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First, let's talk about something that’s not surprising: the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in October has soared to 99%. This is clearly a forced concession! The government shutdown has turned the labor participation rate into a mess, and even though the Fed is trying to maintain a tough stance by saying "no problem," they have to bow to the policy. But the December meeting is uncertain; inflation is still lurking nearby, and they need to wait for more data to come out before they can pretend to be calm. Ultimately, the main theme in the U.S. right now is monetary easing. As long as this line remains intact, the market still has imagination—no matter how bad reality is, just relying on "expectations" can hold up half the sky!

However, looking at Bitcoin, the situation is a bit concerning. The turnover rate has suddenly surged, which clearly indicates that panic is starting to spread! All the chips above 100K are trembling, especially those friends who just jumped in to buy the dip in the past couple of days, thinking that the new administration could save the market. Instead, they ended up getting hit several times by his rhetoric. You have to admit, the new administration is interesting; every speech is like throwing a "black pineapple" into the market, and they always choose to stir things up right before the U.S. stock market closes on Fridays. The U.S. stock market can withstand this level of turbulence, but our crypto market can't handle it, and it gets hit hard! To make matters worse, this Friday there will be CPI data, and inflation is basically guaranteed to rise. If the data is bad, market sentiment will definitely plummet.

Now, back to the technical side. From April 2024 to now, Bitcoin has completed two rounds of weekly adjustments and is currently in the third round. The short-term core support is still around 100K. In the previous two major dips, it stabilized in the range of 102K to 103.6K, which shows that this is the last line of defense for the bulls. But the current trend is too exhausting; if it breaks this range, it will directly test the support at the 100K integer level—there will usually be a strong resistance there, and the range of 100K plus or minus 2000 points is also the core battlefield for short-term buying.

Take last night as an example: Bitcoin retraced to the lower band of the five-day Bollinger Band around 106K, and then it rebounded. However, whether this rebound can sustain depends on the volume of the bears. If tonight it dips again and hits around 105K corresponding to the five-day EMA52, that could be a short-term buying opportunity. But there’s a prerequisite: it must be a slow decline! If the bears suddenly increase their volume and crash the market, then don’t touch it; entering would be like sending yourself to the slaughter. Right now, the market is like "slow knives cutting flesh," not in a hurry to drop, but also not letting you walk away easily. A slight impulse can get you hit back and forth by both sides. So here’s a tip for everyone: if there’s a sharp drop tonight, close half of your short positions and keep some capital to sleep soundly; when the rebound comes, you can take a small long position to bet on a weekend bounce. Think about it, weekends are usually the market's "buffer zone," neither rising nor falling, just grinding people down. Those who are anxious in this rhythm are basically destined to be harvested back and forth.

In fact, as early as the beginning of October, I mentioned that this round of market has entered a period of divergence. Last week, I clearly pointed out: the peak of this bull market has been sealed, and the long-term future will belong to the bears. If you want to survive in this market, you must follow the trend and not go against it. The next probability is that there will be repeated upward pulls to wash out positions, and each upward pull will be a trap for the bulls, which will eventually have to drop again. Remember, the sky won't fall, but you might get knocked out!

Finally, let’s talk about key points, which are solid operational references: there are two resistance levels, the second resistance at 112000 and the first resistance at 110300; there are also two support levels, the first support at 107400 and the second support at 106300. The most critical point right now is 107.4K, which is the lower edge of the previous range and overlaps with the support, serving as the last line of defense for the bulls. As long as this line is held, there is still a chance for a rebound; once 107.4K is lost, the short-term will accelerate downward, targeting 106.3K. Conversely, 110.3K is a strong resistance zone, where a bunch of long-term moving averages are piled up, and it has been tested several times without breaking. If it can stand above this level, we need to see if the trading volume has significantly increased; if the volume keeps up, there is a possibility of continuing the rebound. As for 112K, that is a higher level of selling pressure from the main force, and without external positive news, it cannot be shaken. If it rebounds to that area, be cautious of being pushed back down.

To summarize: hold above 107.4K, and the bulls can catch a breath; if it breaks, prepare for a drop to 106.3K, where there might be a long lower shadow, and short-term players can bet on a rebound there, but remember, that’s just a rebound, not a reversal! If the bears increase their volume and accelerate, don’t try to catch it. By the way, let me also mention the strategy for the wave on October 23: for going long, temporarily don’t consider it; for going short, look at the range of 110300 to 110500, enter in batches, targeting 107400 to 106300.

Lastly, to be honest: there are too many "performative bloggers" in this market. Today they show screenshots of long positions, and tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "catch the top and bottom every time," but in reality, it’s all hindsight! The bloggers worth paying attention to have trading logic that is consistent and can withstand scrutiny, not those who jump in only when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by those exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are needed to distinguish who is a true thinker in the field and who is just a dream seller!

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