Master Discusses Hot Topics:

The U.S. Department of Labor Statistics is going to release the CPI data, and it's clear that this data will be favorable. Why? Because if they dare to release bad data in this mess, wouldn't that be like slapping themselves in the face?

So, the direction of this data has already been predetermined. Even if it is bad data, it will be purposefully bad, meant to pave the way for future actions; they won't genuinely shoot themselves in the foot.

But if you think that the current administration can play such a deep conspiracy, think again. Their die-hard supporters wouldn't understand such a complex script. The most realistic logic is that the data will only be adjusted in a way that benefits them.

However, once the CPI is released, whether Bitcoin surges or crashes, don't be too surprised. Don't really think this is related to the few nonsensical words from the administration; they are merely actors, and the real script has long been written by the capital tycoons.

As soon as you see inexplicable surges, you'll soon find prices reverting to their original state. Such movements are not the start of a market rally but rather institutions raising prices to offload their holdings, doing so cleanly and efficiently.

If they only offload half, how could the price possibly return to zero overnight? So, all current rebounds are not real increases; they are the last wave of traps set by institutions.

Returning to the market, looking at Bitcoin from the candlestick chart, it’s even clearer that the weekly death cross has already opened up. The fast and slow lines are spreading downwards, and the bearish trend is completely locked in. Let me emphasize again, we are already at the tail end of a bull market; all subsequent rebounds are institutions taking advantage of the last bit of heat to offload.

Once retail investors chase the highs, they will be trapped for at least half a year, and a year is not unusual. At this stage, it’s not about vision but about how fast you can run. As for those who still fantasize that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts can save the market? Wake up, after the second rate cut, there will only be one last cut left, and then they will pause.

Every time there is a pause, the market will plummet; this is a rule. Plus, with the third interest rate hike already on the way, it’s like adding another knife to the market. In plain terms, after the second rate cut, it’s basically a signal to clear out; those who don’t run will be harvested.

The market always follows this principle: a real increase will never be a rebound of six thousand points only to fall back to the same level. This kind of up-and-down volatility is all about the main players distributing their holdings.

Don’t be fooled by short-term surges; even if you were caught in a Fibonacci retracement position, that’s only temporary. If they raise prices to give you a chance to short, that’s just extra profit. If the direction is correct, being temporarily trapped is not a big deal.

The so-called benefits brought by the pause in the Russia-Ukraine conflict are merely a smokescreen used by institutions before they dump. Bitcoin surged to the Fibonacci 0.5 position, around 114K, and then immediately turned around and plummeted back to 0.236.

This trend clearly tells me that the rebound is just bait. Both the weekly and daily charts are in a bearish trend; even if there is another rebound, it is highly likely to stop at 114K. If it rebounds above 111K, the head and shoulders pattern will form, which is where I will look to short.

Looking at yesterday's 8-hour chart, from 8 AM to midnight, Bitcoin first dropped by 2.2%, then rose by 4.9%, then fell by 4.5%, and finally returned to the starting point. Isn’t this a typical rhythm of harvesting retail investors? The ups and downs are all for washing out positions and trapping people.

Without a volume breakout above the lifeline, the bears are still in control of the rhythm. Those who chased the highs last night are now all trapped at the peak. This is how the early stages of a bear market work; they must first trap the majority. With the current drop, it’s only a matter of time before the support at 107,000 fails.

Ethereum is the same; on the surface, the bulls are still holding on. The lifeline is around 3800, but this line has been broken more than once. Although there is some support in the short term between 3712 and 3688, the momentum of this drop is completely different from previous ones.

If there is a volume-driven drop at the weekly level, the speed will double. If it’s weak, it might hold up to 3600; if it’s strong, it could directly plunge to 3120. Right now, shorting at highs is the most prudent strategy.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Level Reference:

Second Resistance Level: 111400

First Resistance Level: 109100

Support Level Reference:

First Support Level: 107400

Second Support Level: 106200

Currently, the short-term support is at the 107.4K level, which is a key defensive position. However, the problem is that the price has already fallen below the upward trend line; if it cannot recover soon, the probability of further declines will increase.

The pressure from the 20MA and 60MA above is becoming increasingly evident, with 109.1K being a strong resistance area. If this position cannot break through with volume, any rebound will be a false signal.

Now that the trend line has been broken, it means the market may continue to explore downwards. The short-term space can open up to around 106.2K, which is also the only area where a short-term rebound can still be fought for.

In other words, the range from 106.2K to 107.4K is a key area where the main players might take over, and retail investors can look for a rebound. Entering recklessly is just asking for trouble; as long as you don’t see a decent bullish candlestick with volume, treat it as part of the downward trend, and don’t rush to grab a rebound.

Whether the first resistance level at 109.1K can be surpassed is crucial, but given the current strength of the bears, don’t hold out too much hope. Even if it rebounds to this level, keep an eye on the trading volume; if there’s no volume, consider reversing to short.

The second resistance level at 111.4K can only be reached with a V-shaped reversal. But don’t forget, this must be based on the premise of the administration releasing some major positive news; otherwise, it won’t be reachable.

The first support at 107.4K is the upper edge of the previous range, theoretically a key defensive line. As long as it is not broken, there is still a chance for a rebound.

The second support at 106.2K, once 107.4K is breached, will trigger a wave of panic selling in the market. When it reaches 106.2K, you can expect a lower shadow to test the bottom and then bounce back, but this is just a short-term gamble, and heavy positions are not recommended.

10.22 Master’s Segment Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Not currently applicable

Short Entry Reference: Short in batches in the 110400-111400 range, target: 109100-107400

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, not just look at a few market movements and jump to conclusions. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, and tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "always catch the tops and bottoms," but in reality, it’s all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

This article is exclusively planned and published by Master Chen (WeChat public account: Coin God Master Chen). If you want to learn more about real-time investment strategies, liquidation, spot trading, short, medium, and long-term contract trading techniques, and knowledge about candlesticks, you can add Master Chen for learning and communication. A free experience group for fans has been opened, along with community live broadcasts and other quality experience projects!

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