1. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October reaches 99.4%

CME data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 99.4%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 0.6%. Additionally, the probability of a cumulative cut of 50 basis points by December is 98.6%, and the probability of a cumulative cut of 75 basis points is 0.9%. -Original

2. U.S. government shutdown enters day 19, market confidence shaken

On October 20, the U.S. government shutdown entered its 19th day, with protests erupting across the country under the slogan "No Kings," as demonstrators accused the Trump administration of sliding into authoritarianism. Protest slogans included "Resist Fascism" and "We the People Rule," reflecting societal divisions over trust in power and constitutional governance. The Republican Party labeled it a "Hate America Rally," but the protest scene resembled a symbol of liberal resistance against authoritarianism. The shutdown has stalled debt negotiations and frozen budgets, shaking market confidence, putting pressure on U.S. Treasury yields, and causing the dollar index to retreat. Bitunix analysts warn that if the shutdown continues, the financial market may face a deeper trust crisis. -Original

3. Federal Reserve may announce the end of balance sheet reduction next week, economists analyze repo market pressure

Economists analyze that the Federal Reserve may announce the end of balance sheet reduction in next week's interest rate decision due to emerging funding pressures in the repo market. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has previously hinted at waiting for the right moment to end the balance sheet reduction. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will offset maturing mortgage-backed securities by purchasing U.S. Treasuries, maintaining a stable balance sheet size, while the supply of short-term Treasury bonds may decrease by about $20 billion per month. -Original

4. Federal Reserve may lower reserve interest rates to alleviate financing pressure

The Federal Reserve may lower the interest rate on bank reserve balances to address tensions in the repo market. Currently, this rate is 4.15%, which is 15 basis points above the lower limit of the federal funds target range. If lowered by 5 basis points, banks may shift funds to the repo market, helping to stabilize repo rates. Analysts expect that the Federal Reserve may ultimately implement this adjustment, but believe it is too early to decide on this matter at the October meeting. -Original

5. South Korea changes regulation of cryptocurrency exchange tokens to direct government supervision

The South Korean Financial Services Commission has decided to change the regulatory approach for cryptocurrency exchange tokens from self-regulation to direct government supervision. -Original

6. XRP investor loses $3 million due to hot wallet leak, experts remind to pay attention to security

An XRP investor lost $3 million in XRP assets after entering the seed phrase of a cold wallet into another iPad, exposing the keys and turning it into a hot wallet, which was ultimately stolen. Experts remind that cold wallets are more suitable for protecting large amounts of cryptocurrency assets. -Original

7. U.S. bank reserve ratio falls below 13%, nearing critical level

The reserve ratio of U.S. banks has fallen below 13% of bank assets. New York Fed President Williams has previously regarded this level as the critical point for "adequate" reserves, and this change is related to the U.S. Treasury's efforts to rebuild cash balances. -Original

8. Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission supports regulatory compliance development of digital asset funds

On October 20, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission expressed support for the regulatory compliance work of digital asset funds and tokenized funds at a seminar. Dr. Yip Chi-hang, Executive Director of the SFC's Intermediaries Division, emphasized the commitment to establishing a safe, reliable, and sustainable digital asset fund ecosystem through robust risk management and investor protection. The seminar also discussed the importance of risk management and technological innovation, calling for the fund industry to strengthen cooperation to enhance regulatory compliance capabilities. -Original

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