Original Author: rektdiomedes

Original Compilation: Chopper, Foresight News

If you can rationally examine the global macro market, you will find that the current market performance is entirely logical and not unusual.

Gold Soars: Far Outpacing Stocks and Cryptocurrencies, Driven by Global Reserve Asset De-Dollarization

Gold is experiencing a crazy surge, with increases that not only crush the stock market but also leave cryptocurrencies far behind. The core driver of this phenomenon is the shift in asset allocation by major sovereign nations: China, India, Russia, and even the United States itself are significantly increasing their gold holdings. Essentially, this is a clear signal of the gradual exit of global reserve assets from the era of U.S. Treasury bonds.

The two key events that ignited this shift are:

• The long-standing reckless fiscal policy of the United States, which continuously undermines the credit foundation of the dollar;
• The U.S. freezing of Russia's foreign exchange and treasury reserves a few years ago, which completely shattered the illusion that "U.S. Treasury bonds are neutral reserve assets," making countries aware of the potential risks of holding dollar assets.

Top macro analysts like Doomberg and Luke Gromen have deeply explored this trend. From a game theory perspective, after witnessing the U.S. arbitrarily freeze other countries' assets, Russia, China, and India will inevitably make the rational choice to "increase gold holdings and reduce dollar treasury holdings," as no one wants their asset security to be subject to the policies of other countries.

U.S. Stocks Slowly Rise: Not Madness, but a Self-Cycle Driven by Passive Funds

Although the U.S. stock market is rising, it has not fallen into irrational exuberance, with increases remaining within a relatively restrained range.

The core logic behind this is that the U.S. stock market has evolved into a self-cycling market driven by passive funds. Mike Green has emphasized this point repeatedly over the years. Now, all ordinary nine-to-five workers in the U.S. automatically invest their retirement funds into mainstream index funds like the S&P 500 every month, regardless of market valuations or economic conditions; this rigid capital will continue to flow in. In the long run, this passive allocation will naturally support a slow upward trend in the stock market.

Additionally, the U.S. stock market is gradually becoming the core gathering place for global capital. As the global economy becomes increasingly digital, the U.S. stock market, with its mature systems, ample liquidity, and well-established exit mechanisms, has become the best venue for capital formation globally. Giants like Amazon, Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft are all rooted here, further solidifying the U.S. stock market's position in the global market. This pattern is likely to continue until cryptocurrencies grow into "the new generation of global capital formation venues."

U.S. Housing Market Frozen: $37 Trillion in Equity "Visible but Untouchable," High Interest Rates are the Culprit

The current U.S. residential real estate market is firmly frozen by high interest rates. Despite the market containing up to $37 trillion in equity value, this wealth is almost entirely illiquid.

The reasons are straightforward:

• No one is willing to refinance at levels above the current interest rates; after all, current mortgage rates are far higher than the lows of previous years, and refinancing would only increase costs;
• No one wants to sell their current home and then apply for a new mortgage at a higher interest rate, as the cost of moving increases sharply, making it better to hold onto their homes and wait;
• Even fewer people are willing to apply for home equity lines of credit at outrageous double-digit interest rates, as the high interest would deter the vast majority.

In short, the U.S. housing market under high interest rates has become a liquidity trap: it appears to have massive equity, yet no one can easily mobilize it.

Cryptocurrency: Bouncing Back from the 2022 Low, but the Bull Market Has Not Yet Started

In 2022, the cryptocurrency market fell to a cyclical low due to multiple blows from the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, the collapse of Luna, and the FTX debacle. Although it has since rebounded, it remains at a normal level—neither experiencing a crazy surge nor a continuous decline.

In terms of scale, the current cryptocurrency market has expanded by about 25% compared to its peak in 2021, but it is still less than the market capitalization of Nvidia alone and only one-tenth of the market value of gold.

The reason there has not been a bull market like in 2021 is primarily that macro liquidity has not seen a large-scale injection.

Many attribute the 2021 bull market to the investment demand spurred by pandemic stimulus and home isolation, but I have always believed that the true core driver was the large-scale monetization of equity in the U.S. housing market. In the previous cycle, those "Cardano dads" who "watched Hosk's YouTube videos and frantically pressed the buy button on Coinbase" mostly sourced their investment funds from real estate: either selling homes for cash, extracting equity through refinancing, or applying for home equity loans. It was this liquidity unlocked from the housing market that supported the cryptocurrency bull market in 2021.

Conclusion: The Cryptocurrency Bull Market Has Not Yet Started, Expected to Begin in Q2 2026

Considering all the aforementioned macro factors, the performance of various assets is entirely logical and not abnormal.

Specifically regarding cryptocurrencies, my judgment is: the real bull market has not yet begun, and it is expected to start in the second quarter of 2026. By then, the Federal Reserve will likely lower interest rates to a sufficiently low level, and the U.S. housing market will gradually "thaw," allowing the accumulated liquidity to flow back into risk assets.

If this prediction holds, over the next approximately six quarters (i.e., until around Q3 2027), cryptocurrencies are expected to experience a sustained and strong upward trend.

By the fourth quarter of 2027 or the first quarter of 2028, the bubbles accumulated from previous exuberance may burst, combined with policy uncertainties before the U.S. elections, potentially triggering a new round of sell-offs and entering a bear market cycle.

Therefore, I never believe that the cryptocurrency bull market has ended, as it hasn't even truly started yet. I will continue to accumulate positions at lower prices, deepen my engagement in the industry, and closely monitor the market turning point in the second quarter of 2026.

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