A key data point I am focusing on this week is that the cash holdings of U.S. fund managers fell to 3.8% in October, marking a nearly 12-year low. Generally speaking, a cash ratio above 5% indicates a low risk appetite and that the market is close to a bottom, while a ratio below 4% suggests that positions are full and funds are tight, often signaling a short-term top or a pullback. The current 3.8% indicates that fund managers have little cash on hand, and the short-term U.S. stock market may be entering a profit-taking phase.

However, this does not mean that the market is over. Over the past 25 years, the U.S. stock market has continued to rise long-term even after the cash ratio fell below 4% multiple times. The logic of AI and BTC is different; while AI may have a bubble in the short term, it has long-term blood-generating capabilities; BTC relies more on trust consensus and liquidity locking, which reinforces its "digital gold" attribute. If the U.S. stock market declines next week due to fund managers reducing their holdings, I will consider gradually bottom-fishing in the spot market.

This article is sponsored by #Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh

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