In the first 18 days of October 2025, it was an unforgettable "roller coaster" journey for global cryptocurrency investors. From Bitcoin soaring to a historic peak of $126,200, to two rounds of crashes sweeping over 2 million investors and evaporating more than $21.5 billion in funds, followed by a terrifying rebound in the early hours, this epic turbulence of "ice and fire" not only etched a thrilling market curve but also starkly revealed the core essence of the cryptocurrency market—it has never escaped the fate of being a "news-driven market," where the tides of policy and public sentiment leave their marks in the fluctuations.

Prologue: The Peak Frenzy Born from Policy Fog

The market frenzy at the beginning of October was already wrapped in a speculative gene born from policy fog. The ongoing U.S. federal government shutdown and the difficult-to-obtain key economic data such as inflation and employment drove funds to accelerate into the cryptocurrency field, which some investors viewed as a "safe haven." The rising trend of Bitcoin seemed logical, but in reality, it was an overdrawn market sentiment during a period of information vacuum—when fundamental data was absent, vague "safe haven expectations" were enough to prop up asset prices artificially. The historic high of $126,200 was less a peak of value recognition and more a pinnacle of speculative frenzy under a news vacuum.

Turning Point: The Double Blow of Tariff Clubs and Stablecoin Decoupling

On October 11, this frenzy came to an abrupt halt, and the cruelty of the "news-driven market" was starkly revealed for the first time. Former President Trump's statement wielding the tariff club instantly ignited concerns over escalating global trade frictions; the severe decoupling of the stablecoin USDE directly punctured the liquidity bubble in the cryptocurrency market. As a key link between traditional finance and the crypto world, the collapse of stablecoin credit was like the first domino falling, triggering a simultaneous crash in both the U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency market. The bloodbath in the contract market was shocking: over 1.6 million investors were forcibly liquidated, nearly $20 billion in funds were "zeroed out" in just a few hours, and the liquidation notifications from trading platforms combined with desperate complaints on social media pieced together the collective memory of the crypto community that day. At this moment, the market suddenly awoke to the realization that the so-called "safe haven attribute" was merely a fragile illusion; a single policy-related piece of news was enough to turn a hundred billion-dollar market to ashes.

Fermentation: The Secondary Crash Triggered by Bank Failures

The turmoil did not subside after the first round of crashes; the chain reaction of news continued to ferment. Just seven days later, news of several small U.S. banks "blowing up" emerged, and the ghost of the subprime mortgage crisis once again escalated market panic. Although cryptocurrencies claim to be decentralized and free from the constraints of the traditional financial system, this crisis originating from traditional banking still triggered a secondary waterfall-like decline in the cryptocurrency market at an astonishing speed. The double whammy in the contract market was even more ruthless, with over 400,000 investors once again becoming victims of volatility, suffering losses of $1.568 billion, marking another heavy footnote in the chain reaction of news. This scene confirmed the profound paradox of the market: although crypto assets attempt to sever ties with traditional finance, they can never escape the deep binding of macro policies and financial environments; any minor news can stir up huge waves in this highly sensitive market.

Reversal: A Midnight Rebound Triggered by a Statement

Yesterday's dramatic rebound wrote the most vivid footnote to the logic of the "news-driven market." When news broke that Trump had reversed his stance and "denied maintaining high tariffs on China," the U.S. stock market first turned from decline to rise, followed closely by the cryptocurrency market, which experienced a fierce rebound in the early hours. From crash to rebound, the direction of asset prices was determined not by technical support or so-called "intrinsic value," but by a sudden policy statement. This extreme reversal in a short time perfectly exemplified the "news-driven" characteristic of the cryptocurrency market—here, fundamental analysis often gives way to news interpretation, and technical indicator signals are frequently overshadowed by public sentiment waves.

Source: The Deep Contradiction of the "News-Driven Market"

Looking back at the turbulence of these 18 days, it reflects the long-standing deep contradictions in the cryptocurrency market. Since the birth of Bitcoin, despite the industry's scale expanding to trillions of dollars and continuous iterations of blockchain technology, the market pricing logic has never been able to escape its dependence on external news. From the market fluctuations triggered by Trump's proposal to create a "national strategic Bitcoin reserve" to the rise and fall of "Trump Coin" due to celebrity effects leading to $2 billion in investor losses, history has repeatedly proven: external news such as policy direction, celebrity statements, and traditional financial risks are always the core variables influencing the short-term trends of the cryptocurrency market. As shown by a survey from the Pew Research Center, 63% of American respondents lack confidence in the reliability and safety of cryptocurrency investments, and the root of this confidence deficit lies in the uncertainty of a market dominated by news.

Warning: Rational Thoughts Behind the Frenzy and Crash

This "ice and fire" turbulence will eventually come to an end, but the warnings it leaves behind are worth deep reflection for all participants. For the cryptocurrency market to truly mature, it may need to break free from excessive reliance on short-term news and establish more stable value anchors; for investors, the lessons learned from over 2 million investors being liquidated in 18 days are profound: in this news-driven market, blindly chasing highs and panic selling will only make one a victim of volatility. Only by recognizing the essence of the market and maintaining rational judgment can one safeguard their asset defenses amidst the waves of rise and fall.

The ups and downs of these 18 days are merely a microcosm of the development process of the cryptocurrency market. But this microcosm clearly indicates: as long as the essence of the "news-driven market" remains unchanged, every frenzy and crash in the cryptocurrency market will be repeatedly staged in the tides of policy and public sentiment.

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