Good evening everyone, I am Jiang Xin. The first few steps yesterday and today actually went quite well. However, one misstep is enough to erase the good progress made. A rebound in the morning was entered around 3820, but faced continuous pressure from the market, at one point holding up by over a hundred points.

Let's briefly review a segment. The market started at seven in the morning, with Bitcoin showing a five consecutive green candles on reduced volume in one hour. At nine o'clock, a doji star at 108800 created a divergence. Starting at noon, there was a one-hour sequence of six bearish arrangements, and after breaking below 108800, there was a volume increase in selling pressure, pushing down to around 103500.

Jiang Xin feels both speechless and frustrated. The thought process has been consistently focused on the dual nodes of 3850 and 3650. A hasty entry into a rebound this morning put me in a very passive position.

During this period, the market has been particularly chaotic, with back-and-forth fluctuations driven by conflicting news, especially after the black swan event on the 11th, where market leverage was relatively low. The use of spot to push up or continue to decline has shown significant divergence. The overall structure is very messy. You should have noticed that regardless of the trading methods used, there will be both wins and losses. Therefore, we must prepare for the worst and make the best projections.

The structure of Ethereum is consistent with Bitcoin. In the morning at six o'clock, it rose from around 3850 to about 3950 before starting the downward process, showing a stronger overall ratio than Bitcoin. In the afternoon at four and five o'clock, there were two rebounds of over fifty points around 3700. From the trading volume, we can infer that the first step was the exit of shorts, and the second step was the support from longs. Starting from five forty-five in the afternoon, there were three sequences of 15-minute bearish arrangements, with trading volume expanding, but the RSI and MACD indicators did not follow suit.

For Bitcoin, pay attention to the upper levels of 116500-117200-118800.

For the lower levels, focus on 105200-104800-103600.

For Ethereum, the upper levels to watch are 3780-3830-3880.

For the lower levels, focus on 3750-3680-3600.

In the future, we will mainly respond with wide fluctuations. The market may have divergences around the dual centers of 104500 or 106800, and whichever side it reaches, it will oscillate around 1800 points up and down. Essentially, whichever side it trends towards, the market will gravitate towards another major level. We will each take boundaries, handling the large range of 102700-108800. For Ethereum, we will handle the large range of 3580-3920, mainly processing within the 3650-3880 range.

For now, we suggest light positions with wide fluctuations, recommending to go long at 104500, add at 103600, and set a stop loss at 102500.

If shorting, enter at 106500, add at 107500, and set a stop loss at 108800. For Ethereum, go long at 3720, add at 3680, and set a stop loss at 3640.

Alternatively, short at 3850, add at 3880, and set a stop loss at 3910, targeting the opposing range.

For segmented handling, we suggest light positions, mainly focusing on shorting. The wider the fluctuations, the easier it is for many people to take heavy positions, which is why the trading volume has been unusually low recently. This week, we initially started looking bearish around 4050. However, the market rebounded to around 4200, and each drop was preceded by a fluctuation, followed by a drop of two hundred points. Bitcoin has performed well, with the pressure at 113500 and the major level of 110000 being very reliable throughout. Trading Ethereum recently has been a bit difficult, so it’s better not to take heavy positions.

If you have been following my thoughts these past few days, you would know I have been looking at 3850 and 3650 since early on. This has been fully validated by the market, but the rebound went awry with a record of nine wins and two draws, which is incomparable.

Strategies are time-sensitive, and adjustments should be made in conjunction with market movements. Official account: Jiang Xin on Chan.

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