🎯 Event Review

During yesterday's trading session, ETH exhibited significant price volatility. Within just a few minutes, its price first surged and then experienced a noticeable pullback. The market showed unusually active buying and selling competition, influenced by external macroeconomic and policy uncertainties, as well as internal liquidity tightness and high leverage risk shocks. Overall, this volatility reflects the intense struggle between bulls and bears and the rapid shift in market sentiment at critical moments.

⏱️ Timeline

• 18:30
  ETH price hovered in the range of $3679 to $3685, at which point the market signaled external economic risks and internal capital volatility pressures.

• 18:30–19:16
  In 46 minutes, the ETH price rapidly rose from $3679 to $3805, an increase of about 3.42%. During this phase, buying was concentrated, indicating market participants were adjusting positions and quickly replenishing their holdings.

• 18:30–19:25
  Another set of data indicated a rise from $3685 to $3817, an increase of about 3.60%, reflecting the continuous push from bulls and the release of local liquidity.

• 19:45
  Subsequently, the ETH price pulled back to $3778.66, with the sharp rise followed by a phase of adjustment indicating that the market faced some profit-taking pressure at high levels.

🔍 Reason Analysis

The recent sharp volatility in ETH is mainly influenced by the following two factors:

1. External Macroeconomic and Policy Uncertainty
   Global trade frictions, expectations of tariff policy adjustments, and rising risks in the credit market have continuously stimulated market risk aversion. Recent escalations in tensions between the U.S. and China, along with hints from certain high-level officials regarding tariff policy adjustments, have caused localized turmoil in traditional financial markets, which in turn affected the digital asset space.

2. Internal Liquidity Pressure and High Leverage Risk
   Recently, a large number of whale positions in the market were liquidated, and frequent liquidations of leveraged short positions triggered drastic changes in local liquidity. Data shows that within the last hour, the total liquidation amount across the network reached $8 million, with short positions accounting for nearly 80%. This phenomenon of high-leverage trading and rapid capital outflows caused ETH prices to surge and plummet in a short time, resulting in extreme market behavior.

📊 Technical Analysis

Based on the [ETH/USDT Binance USDT perpetual 45-minute] candlestick data, we can observe the following technical characteristics:

• Indicator Trends

• The KDJ indicator shows a clear divergence, indicating that recent upward momentum is strengthening.

• The OBV (On-Balance Volume) has crossed above its moving average, releasing a buy signal.

• Volume Situation

• Trading volume has increased by about 72.92% compared to the previous period, indicating a significant rise in market activity.

• Current trading volume is significantly higher than the 10-day average and is in the top 10% of the recent 10 periods, showing a large accumulation of capital in the short term.

• Moving Average Arrangement

• MA5, MA10, and MA20 are overall in a bearish arrangement, with prices running below EMA20, EMA50, and EMA120, suggesting a weak short-term trend.

• The slope of EMA20 is steeply downward (about -1.01%), corroborated by EMA24 (-0.96%) and EMA52 (-0.68%), indicating clear bearish pressure in the medium to long term.

• Other Technical Signals

• RSI has broken through the upward trend line, showing a local short-term bullish signal.

• TD Sequential is in a bullish Setup phase (7/9), suggesting that after some adjustments, there may be a short-term rebound opportunity.

Overall, although some technical indicators show local reversal signals, the overall moving average system and volume structure still indicate significant medium to long-term downward pressure, with the market exhibiting a coexistence of short-term volatility and medium to long-term weakness.

🔮 Market Outlook

Looking ahead, the ETH market is expected to maintain high volatility:

• Short-term Operation Suggestions
  In the current context of intense competition between bulls and bears, short-term traders can focus on key support and resistance zones, using local reversal opportunities for swing trading. However, they must guard against the chain liquidation risks triggered by high leverage and large liquidations.

• Medium to Long-term Risk Alerts
  If macroeconomic and policy risks continue to exist, coupled with unresolved internal liquidity issues, medium to long-term adjustment pressure may arise. Therefore, conservative investors should focus on risk control, delaying large-scale investments and waiting for the situation to clarify further.

• Key Focus Areas
  Market participants need to closely monitor international economic trends, as well as the latest developments in U.S.-China trade and the credit market. Additionally, on the technical side, attention should be paid to whether reversal signals such as RSI and TD Sequential can materialize, and whether the moving average system shows signs of effective stabilization.

In summary, although the current ETH price occasionally shows signs of temporary rebounds amid significant volatility, the overall risk remains high. A rational view of market fluctuations, with an emphasis on capital management and risk hedging, will be key to responding steadily to market volatility in the near future.

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