Written by: haotian

1) The native narrative faction of Crypto corresponds to the "Shu Kingdom" in a remote corner, residing in the perilous land of Bashu, with @VitalikButerin as "Zhuge Liang," outlining the grand blueprint of "Rollup Centric" and "ZK Endgame" as the roadmap.

Advocating the principles of "Code is Law" and "Decentralization," akin to Liu Bei's benevolence, it seems to stand on a moral high ground, yet is constrained in the brutal market competition.

What alliances against Cao Cao, pacifying the Central Plains, repeatedly introducing new technological narratives from DeFi to NFT to layer2 and AI Agents, is reminiscent of Zhuge Liang's six expeditions to Qishan, each time with great fanfare, but the application of Mass Adoption always falls just short.

Until Zhuge Liang exhausts himself and dies, the Devs escape to the AI circle, ultimately leading to a situation of talent depletion and lack of successors. Although I really don't want to say that "idealism" was the first to exit, fortunately, the spirit of "Han and enemy cannot coexist" and the spirit of decentralization will become the orthodoxy of the industry, continuing to be passed down.

2) The CEX exchange alliance corresponds to the "Wei Kingdom" occupying the Central Plains, with @cz_binance as "Cao Cao," holding "user liquidity" and "listing rights" to control the vassals.

Implementing a "land reclamation" strategy, establishing a new ICO assembly line of Wallet + Alpha + Contracts, drawing various forces into an internal self-circulation. Fortunately, talent is the only criterion; whether from the tech faction or the MEME faction, as long as they can bring trading volume, they are welcomed. Thus, the national strength once reached its peak, crushing other competitors.

However, the biggest risk of this approach is cultivating too many "parasites"—market makers, project parties, and KOLs all sucking blood, and once problems arise, the entire system collapses instantly. Ultimately, it created a bustling prosperous era, but after a wave of intense "regulatory arbitrage," it became an illusion.

In the end, it will either be "pacified" by regulation, "undermined" by internal interest groups, or "overthrown" by new forces. This constant concoction of "quick money projects," overdrawing the industry's long-term credibility, will inevitably backfire, and in the end, whether the CEX empire is surnamed "Zhao" or "Trump" remains uncertain.

3) Wall Street financial capital corresponds to the "Eastern Wu" in the Jiangdong region, with @coinbase, BlackRock, and other Wall Street institutions and American political figures as "Sun Quan." Sometimes uniting with the tech faction of Shu to promote decentralized innovation, and sometimes collaborating with the operational flow of CEX in Wei to expand compliance channels, they ally with whoever is useful, focusing on a strategy of "uniting secondary enemies to strike the primary enemy" based on the situation.

Just as Eastern Wu occupies the natural barrier of the Yangtze River, Wall Street leverages the advantages of "dollar hegemony" and "compliance moat," controlling off-chain entry with ETFs, on-chain settlements with USDT and USDC, and penetrating the DeFi ecosystem with strategies like tokenizing US stocks and on-chain US bonds as RWA. The smartest move now is to bide their time, letting the tech faction and CEX engage in a life-and-death battle while quietly laying the groundwork for substantial profits.

Undoubtedly, if the future trend of Crypto is "compliance," "institutionalization," and "licensing," then the Crypto world will ultimately belong to Wall Street. Now you understand why it's said that the realm of the old Northern Wei might change its surname to Eastern Wu "Trump."

The difference is that Trump is not Sima Yi and does not need to hide and scheme so stealthily.

Note: As I wrote, I realized I had delved deeper into the original Three Kingdoms scenario, my fault, shh, I accidentally leaked the secrets of the universe; it seems there are many insights and reflections on the industry's ultimate fate hidden within.

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