Host: Wang Yibo | Morning Broadcast Time: October 17, 2025, Friday
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I. Global Macroeconomic Environment: Multiple Uncertainties Overlap, Financial Market Risk Aversion Rises
The global market is currently facing a dual impact of "trade tensions + government shutdown"—the U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its third week, with the release of key economic data forced to halt, compounded by the ongoing tense trade situation, significantly intensifying investors' concerns about the economic outlook. This uncertainty is directly transmitted to the financial markets: the three major U.S. stock indices collectively closed lower, and expectations for a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy quickly heated up. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, traders have increased their bets that the Federal Reserve will implement three rate cuts within the year to counteract economic downward pressure.
For the cryptocurrency market, changes in macro liquidity expectations remain a core variable—if the Federal Reserve's rate cuts materialize, it will theoretically provide liquidity support for risk assets (including Bitcoin); however, in the short term, the "uncertainty window" during the data vacuum and policy game period, combined with the structural contradictions within the cryptocurrency market itself, still requires vigilance against amplified volatility risks.
II. Bitcoin: After a breakdown with reduced volume, bears dominate, and 300,000 "official reserves" become a bearish catalyst
(A) Price Performance and Technical Analysis: Secondary breakdown confirmed, slow decline forces longs
Bitcoin continued its weakness yesterday, sharply falling from a high of $111,929 to a low of $107,375. Although it has slightly rebounded above $108,000, the overall trend remains weak. Technically, it shows characteristics of a "breakdown with reduced volume"—the 4-hour chart shows consecutive declines, with the price consistently pressured around the downward trend line and continuously approaching the lower Bollinger Band. More critically, Bitcoin has completed a "true secondary breakdown" (i.e., the key support level of $108,000-$110,000 has been consecutively breached), further confirming the downward trend.
Notably, recent market news reported that "after the large seizure of related assets by the U.S., Bitcoin reserves surged from 200,000 to over 300,000." This event poses a direct bearish impact on the crypto community, which values "freedom and decentralization": the centralization of large reserves contradicts the core value concept of the crypto space, exacerbating market concerns about "normalization of regulatory intervention" and "liquidity diversion," further strengthening bearish expectations.
(B) Short-term Operation Suggestions: Cautiously chase highs under bear dominance, focus on shorting opportunities at resistance levels
Currently, Bitcoin's trend is completely controlled by bears, with bulls failing to organize an effective rebound, presenting a typical "slow decline forces longs" pattern. The key support level of $105,000 (previous low and psychological level) will face severe testing; if it breaks, it will further open up downward space.
Operational Strategy: In the short term, it is recommended to layout around bears, focusing on shorting opportunities when the price rebounds to the key resistance range of $109,000-$110,000 (this area is a previous support turned resistance, compounded by technical trend line pressure). While strictly setting stop losses, it is advised to manage position sizes (e.g., no more than 5%-10% of total capital per trade) and hedge risks (e.g., allocating stablecoins or gold as safe-haven assets) to cope with volatility.
III. Ethereum: Highs followed by a drop form a "double top" that entices longs, downward trend continues
(A) Price Performance and Technical Analysis: "Double top" structure confirmed, bears completely dominate
Ethereum experienced a "roller coaster" market yesterday—after rebounding from a low of $3,924 in the morning, it tested highs of $4,048 and $4,084 in the afternoon and evening, but then quickly fell back, dipping to a low of $3,938, ultimately breaking the key support of $3,890 in the early morning, setting a new low of $3,823.
From a structural perspective, this trend formed a typical "double top" enticing longs (i.e., the two highs of $4,048 and $4,084 failed to break the previous high, followed by a volume increase in the decline), indicating that the bulls are weak in their counterattack, and bears have completely taken control of the rhythm. Currently, the technical rebound strength around the $3,890 price is weak; if it cannot effectively recover the resistance range of $3,924-$3,950 (previous support turned resistance), the downward trend will continue, and the market may further test the $3,750 support (close to the late September low).
(B) Short-term Operation Suggestions: Focus on shorting at highs, strictly adhere to stop losses
Ethereum is currently in a "downward continuation" phase, with bullish momentum waning and bears clearly dominating.
Operational Strategy: It is recommended to focus on "shorting at highs," paying close attention to shorting opportunities when the price rebounds to the resistance range of $3,924-$3,950 (if the rebound is weak or quickly falls back, one can enter the market accordingly). Stop losses can be set above the resistance range (e.g., above $3,960), with targets looking towards the $3,823 low and the $3,750 support below. Similarly, strict position control is necessary to avoid heavy bets in a single direction.
IV. Summary and Risk Warning
The current cryptocurrency market is under dual pressure of "macroeconomic uncertainty + micro technical breakdown":
On the macro level: The game of expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy and the vacuum period of global economic data, with liquidity direction still unclear;
On the micro level: Bitcoin is hit by the bearish impact of "centralization of official reserves," with the technical aspect confirming a secondary breakdown trend; Ethereum, on the other hand, accelerates its decline after the "double top" entices longs, potentially opening further downward space.
Investors should remember: avoid blindly chasing highs, closely track the Federal Reserve's subsequent policy direction (especially the pace of rate cuts within the year), and reduce volatility risks through position control (diversified investments), strict stop losses (setting clear take-profit/stop-loss lines), and risk hedging (allocating stable assets).
Follow Yibo for the latest market dynamics, respond rationally to volatility, and grasp opportunities while strictly adhering to risk control bottom lines!
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If you are feeling lost—don’t understand the technology, can’t read the charts, don’t know when to enter the market, don’t know how to set stop losses, don’t understand take profits, randomly increase positions, get stuck at the bottom, can’t hold onto profits, miss out on market movements… these are common problems for retail investors. But don’t worry, I can help you establish the correct trading mindset. A single profitable trade speaks louder than a thousand words; finding the right direction is better than repeatedly facing losses. Instead of frequent operations, it’s better to strike accurately, making each trade more valuable. If you need real-time guidance, you can scan the QR code below the article to follow my public account. Market conditions change rapidly, and due to review timeliness, subsequent trends will be based on real-time layouts. I look forward to steadily moving forward in the market with you.
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