In the 23rd episode of "Trading Star Tuesday" organized by Techub News in collaboration with Wind, Uweb, and Chain Intelligence, host and digital asset expert Qie Ge teamed up with three heavyweight guests—m&WDAO OG and m&W partner Qiu Jianghong, Builder Meg from Shanghai Mankun (Shenzhen) Law Firm, and BitMart's Chief User Experience Officer Web3Sherry—to engage in an in-depth discussion on the hot topic "After the 10.11 Black Swan, Should We Liquidate or Accumulate?" The event, held in a Twitter Space format, focused on the market turmoil triggered by Trump's sudden tariff policy on October 11, with guests analyzing the market from multiple dimensions including macro policy, sentiment, and structural opportunities, sharing practical insights. Despite frequent technical glitches (such as microphone signal adjustments and network fluctuations) highlighting the resilience of the Web3 community, participants still "comforted each other" regarding unrealized losses, emphasizing that "one cannot just leave the table," helping investors respond rationally to extreme market conditions. The three topics progressed step by step, dissecting the causes of the crash, investment strategies, and lessons from stablecoins, providing a decision-making framework for liquidation or accumulation.

Topic 1: Market Dynamics After the 10.11 Black Swan

Web3Sherry: The Downward Cycle of Three Conspiring Forces

As BitMart's Chief User Experience Officer, Web3Sherry approached the discussion from the perspective of community dynamics and user psychology, pointing out that this crash was not due to a single factor but rather a "conspiracy of three forces": macro policy shocks, triggered leverage risks, and the failure of stablecoin mechanisms. The catalyst was Trump's imposition of a 100% tariff and export controls on China, leading to a global withdrawal of risk-averse funds; high-leverage positions were liquidated as mainstream coins like Bitcoin fell below support levels; the USDE de-pegging (dropping to $0.65) collapsed margin trading, further amplifying liquidity stress and panic, creating a self-reinforcing downward spiral. She emphasized the interaction of multiple factors rather than attributing blame to a single cause, laying the emotional and structural groundwork for subsequent strategy discussions.

Meg: Trump's Time Zone Bombardment and On-Chain Infrastructure Opportunities

Builder Meg from Shanghai Mankun (Shenzhen) Law Firm, a veteran in the Web3 space since 2017, bluntly stated that the crash was a result of Trump's "Friday time zone bombardment" routine, with liquidation scales reaching tenfold, reflecting the amplification of leverage and contract flows. From a primary investment research perspective, the fundamentals are improving—derivative exchanges like Hyper Liquid are rising, and projects like Aster/backpack show ecological vitality; the pain point is that CN-based exchanges' "cultivation-style" introduction of USDE has backfired. Post-FTX, many liquidations have shifted on-chain, with smart contract iterations outperforming CEX's manual algorithms, providing robust guarantees. She hinted at examining leverage risks, seizing infrastructure opportunities, and weighing liquidation against accumulation.

Qiu Jianghong: A Long-Term Perspective on Short-Term Volatility and Quick Recovery

m&WDAO OG and m&W partner Qiu Jianghong (Teacher Qiu) humorously remarked that he "woke up early but arrived late," focusing on the far-reaching impact of Trump's statements (on the stock market, precious metals, and crypto), but noted that the market's reaction over the next two to three days would show a quick digestion and recovery. Under the macro catalyst, leverage and stablecoins would stabilize through adjustment, and short-term panic would not overturn the trend. He advised against emotional liquidation, suggesting to seize the recovery window such as infrastructure upgrades and confidence restoration, soothing unrealized loss anxiety, and reminding the Web3 community of the importance of patience and a systematic perspective.

Topic 2: Reduce Holdings or Liquidate

Web3Sherry: Panic Accumulation Opportunities Under De-Leveraging

Sherry pointed out that the crash squeezed leverage and de-leveraged, bringing mainstream coins (like Bitcoin/Ethereum) closer to their true value. Retail investors faced the most direct impact from high leverage liquidations, while institutional funds felt significant pressure; the adjustment nurtures long-term opportunities, and she personally accumulated at the Ethereum bottom of $3,370. She advised, "Don't be too nervous," maintaining confidence within the community, as the more panic there is, the more room there is to accumulate, suggesting that reducing or liquidating is not the best strategy, but rather cautiously positioning for value recovery, paving the way for the third topic.

Qiu Jianghong: Getting In Amidst the Waves and Signals of Institutional Accumulation

Teacher Qiu stated that liquidations primarily affected small traders with leveraged positions, with limited impact on the mainstream—merely "larger waves." The market's quick recovery provides an excellent opportunity to get in without wavering in faith. The momentum of institutional accumulation is strengthening, with "very limited" impact. Complementing Sherry's accumulation, he suggested a long-term perspective, avoiding liquidation and reducing holdings, instead focusing on seizing recovery; to ease the audience's psychological discomfort, he emphasized the structural moments of confidence accumulation after the black swan.

Meg: The Illusion of Altcoins and Prioritizing DeFi Level One

Maggie, with eight years of experience crossing over from traditional finance, revealed the chaotic phenomena of the crash: Bitcoin fell 10%, while altcoins like ATOM dropped to 0.001, exposing the "illusion" of FDV (4 trillion industry after excluding mainstream); the "reduced K-line" is an old black history. Personally, she had a small contract liquidation on Saturday morning, but the APR of Hyper Finance soared to 195%, hedging a profit of 10%, and she accumulated old DeFi coins like AAVE/CRV (liquidation profits in the tens of millions). The bull market is not over; altcoins need to be taken with a grain of salt—prioritize Level One with revenue/cycle validation (like AAVE/Pendle); first earn Beta for certain returns, then take small bets on Alpha. The determination of holding costs is crucial, with retail/institutional investors making cautious allocations, preferring to miss out on altcoins.

Topic 3: The USDE De-Pegging Incident

Web3Sherry: A Wake-Up Call for Stablecoins on Transparency and Dynamic Defense

Sherry viewed the de-pegging as a reminder: stablecoins "are not necessarily stable," with lessons in transparency/liquidity—users must check reserve flows to avoid storytelling; do not rely on a single platform, as concentrated valuations are easy targets; risks need automatic responses (like buybacks/flow limits), rather than post-event interventions. The future requires real funds + defense systems to address the liquidation cycle, providing a guide to avoid pitfalls: prioritize examining resilience when accumulating, avoiding panic selling.

Meg: The Boomerang Black Box and Recommendations for On-Chain Transparency

Maggie stated that the mechanism is "too harmful," categorizing: DAI is overly stable for small scales, USDT is the most straightforward, and UST's algorithm has been disproven; USDE's neutral arbitrage (shorting funding rates) made money this round, requiring environmental scrutiny. She criticized exchanges for introducing nonsense—FTX, after reflection, still listed due to vested interests (Binance/OK investment), with 12% activity becoming a boomerang; CEX black boxes vs. on-chain transparency, a single spike can lead to "innocent dead fish." ENA's personal liquidation lesson: algorithms are false, central strategies should be on-chain, and contracts should be avoided. Exposing black box risks, investors should prioritize revenue-validated projects.

Qiu Jianghong: The Double-Edged Boomerang and Smart Accumulation for Profit

Teacher Qiu, while not deeply researched, acknowledged the double-edged nature: some profit, while the amplified volatility of liquidations provides opportunities for strategists. He loves the market, with a common system "smart ruler" measuring (mathematical declines/K-lines/rebounds), waiting for the right moment to trigger accumulation (Fibonacci/second-degree pull to lower costs), rebounding to break even. Liquidations occur due to a lack of risk control, with verified systems seen as "too easy to get in"—the art of quantitative risk aversion. Complementing previous points, he instills confidence: systematic risk control triumphs over emotions, accumulating mainstream/DeFi to earn Beta.

This event not only dissected the 10.11 incident (the tariff catalyst evaporated $400 billion, exposing leverage/illusions) but also armed investors through the guests' practical experiences (like Sherry accumulating ETH, Maggie hedging with Hyper, and Qiu's smart ruler): from emotional conspiracies to mechanism lessons, and then to pathways (like prioritizing DeFi, leading with Beta), at the Web3 table, faith + strategy = navigating the winter. Whether liquidating or accumulating, rational tools and community resilience help you embrace ecological iteration and value rebound. See you next time!

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。