Author | hitesh.eth

Compiled by | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Translator | Dingdang (@XiaMiPP)

This article may make many people uncomfortable. Most will be poked at their pain points halfway through and exit, because the truth is always uncomfortable. But I am not here to comfort anyone; I am here to burst the bubble of illusion.

If you are still waiting for the "altseason," you have already lost.

It has been almost three years since the last cycle's bottom for Bitcoin (around the $15,000 to $20,000 range).

Three years is a long time in the crypto market.

During these three years, those who stubbornly held onto their previous investment portfolios are still deep in losses, and many have been mentally destroyed long ago.

Countless tokens have never recovered, narratives have died, enthusiasm has faded, and liquidity has dried up.

For most, their portfolios have become a "graveyard of dreams." Only a few tokens, like Solana and BNB, have truly delivered impressive performances. Ethereum has seen some increases, but it is far from enough to save those who entered at high prices. DOT and MATIC, which were once considered "faith tokens," continue to incur losses. Game tokens have basically entered a state of "clinical death."

Those who believed in the narratives of "metaverse" and "GameFi" can only watch their capital rot away bit by bit.

They are still "praying," as if faith can redeem them.

But it won't.

The market's currents have divided into two types of people: the holders of the old era and the rise of the new era

In the past three years, the market has diverged into two completely different paths.

The first type is the holders frozen in time. They believe without basis that the market will eventually rebound and that their coins will miraculously return to historical highs. They do not rotate assets, do not keep up with the times, do not study new market narratives, and do not learn on-chain skills. They simply cling to worthless assets, waiting for a miracle. Worse still, many store their coins on centralized exchanges. When exchanges like WazirX are hacked or freeze withdrawals, they complain on Twitter but still make no progress. Their strategy is only "hope." But hope is not a strategy; it is a slow financial suicide in the world of cryptocurrency.

The other path belongs to a new generation of investors who entered in the last two to three years. They have no attachment to old narratives and do not care about your 2020 portfolio. Their only goal is to make money from the market. They enter through two paths—claiming airdrops and trading meme coins. They quickly turn to on-chain activities and are willing to try. Some start from scratch, building capital from nothing. They are not lucky; they are eager. They have learned how to seize opportunities, how to rotate, and how to sell faster. Although many have given back profits due to a lack of exit strategies, at least they are genuinely participating in the market, unlike those who are too afraid to leave centralized exchanges and remain as bystanders.

In the past three years, we have witnessed wave after wave of narratives: meme craze, AI craze, meme + AI craze, second meme craze, second AI craze, a brief DeFi craze, buyback and burn craze, the ongoing privacy coin craze, ICM heat, AI agent craze, and even the fleeting streamer coin craze. Market narratives have become shorter, with trends often lasting only two weeks before fading away.

The lazy complain that the market is manipulated, while the smart flexibly rotate and survive. This is not a market for "believers," but an arena for survivors.

Market fragmentation: no longer a "unified altseason"

Today, the market is highly fragmented, no longer a unified community but split into countless "trenches." People choose sides: Solana trench, BNB trench, Base trench, meme trench, AI trench, DeFi trench… Each trench has its own rhythm, insiders, leaders, information flow, and liquidity cycles. Players in the trenches know where the liquidity is headed. They understand a simple truth: the single, unified altseason no longer exists.

Because liquidity has been split across different narratives, bridges, chains, and cultures. If you are not in the trenches, you will forever miss the altseason, only seeing red candlesticks and endless losses.

Those retail investors sitting outside the trenches are still waiting for some "macro switch" to be flipped, thinking that will bring their "dead coins" back to new highs. They log into exchanges every day, staring at candlestick charts like addicts, shouting "I've had enough" every week, yet repeating the same cycle. They are the most stubborn group in the entire industry. They still post predictions of LINK at $1,000 and DOT at $200, fantasizing that liquidity will return out of goodwill. They do not realize that this market has no mercy and no memory. It does not care who waits the longest; it only rewards those who adapt the fastest.

"Altseason" has actually already happened; it just didn't happen to you

Altseason has happened; you just missed it. It appeared in fragmented forms: in the meme coin craze on Base, in the rotations on Solana, in the Ponzi mechanisms of airdrops, in the rise of early AI narratives, in the token burn craze… These opportunities are fleeting, while you are fixated on the candlestick charts that have long since died in 2021. That was your choice; the market moved forward while you stood still.

You focus on technical analysis streams (TA) that have never truly made money, using 50x leverage to bet on tokens you do not even understand, only to get liquidated, then re-enter, then get liquidated again, and re-enter again.

Do you call it bad luck? No, this is not a matter of luck; it is a matter of ability. Nothing will change until you acknowledge the truth. You are not "unlucky"; you are simply refusing to learn.

Many people reject new opportunities because they are addicted to their biases. When new narratives emerge, they shout "scam" without looking. When new narratives surface, they ask "when is the airdrop" without reading the documentation. When they see smart people rotating assets, they laugh from the sidelines; when these people post six-figure profits, they regret it. You can comfort yourself by saying it is insider trading, but the truth is simpler: you were not "played"; you were "outplayed."

Look at Zcash. This is one of the clearest trading opportunities of this cycle. The narrative is strong, the support is substantial, and community promotion is natural. Naval publicly discussed Zcash when it was around $80. Whether you like Naval or not, this signal cannot be ignored. When a respected voice combines with a strong narrative, plus opinion leaders like Mert promoting it daily, it is not noise; it is a clear momentum play backed by builders.

But most people missed it because they did not research, did not read, and did not understand the technology or the details, making superficial comparisons between Zcash and Monero. They were too lazy to try and directly denied the opportunity. Because not doing research is easier than admitting one's laziness.

Without effort, there is no faith. Those who do not learn do not deserve to reap rewards. Most people lack the perseverance to stick with it. They dip their toes in with small amounts, rotate without conviction, and follow one influencer after another like lost sheep. When real opportunities arise, they buy high and then hold onto assets, fantasizing about someone predicting a hundredfold return. This is not a strategy; it is financial suicide dressed in ambition.

The market will always shout exaggerated targets, but that is meaningless. They shout inflated numbers just to siphon your liquidity. "Greed bait" is the oldest trick in this game. If you are not mature enough to formulate your own exit plan, you will ultimately give back everything you have earned—all of it.

This is an ironclad rule. Those without discipline will always be destroyed by greed.

Ultimately, if you cannot hold onto your profits, you will eventually lose everything. The market does not take money from the weak—the weak willingly offer their money. Market makers do not steal your money; they simply wait for you to collapse. Retail investors once held Bitcoin, but now they have been taken over by institutions. Retail investors once had faith, but now they are left with memes, fantasies, and profit screenshots that can no longer be realized.

This game is not about who is the smartest, but about—who can evolve. If you do not learn, you are in decline; if you do not rotate, you are rotting; if you do not master on-chain skills, you have been eliminated. You do not need special talents or insider channels, but you must work hard. You need to read, track narratives, learn to exit, control emotions, and act decisively—without hesitation, without begging, without waiting for permission.

Crypto is not difficult; it is people who make it complex. Because they chase dopamine instead of discipline, crave frenzy instead of process, seek luck instead of learning, and expect returns instead of research. They are so eager for shortcuts that they never cultivate skills. This is why most people remain broke in a market that can create wealth every cycle.

Successful people are not chosen ones, nor are they lucky. They do not have inherent advantages. They simply persist in learning every day while others are busy scrolling. They build systems while others chase noise. They act early while others are still debating. They exit cleanly while others pray for another surge. They can navigate every cycle because they adapt to each cycle.

If you are still waiting for "altcoin season," you have already lost. This game has long moved forward. You either evolve or get eliminated. No one will come to save you. And no "new bull market" will magically fix your bad habits. Today, this market has only one rule left: learn or be left behind.

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