Memories of the past are like brilliant fireworks that once illuminated our entire world. Every fragment, every laugh, is deeply imprinted in our hearts. Every moment is incredibly precious. Although time flows and changes, those memories remain as clear as yesterday, so beautiful that it's hard to forget. Memories are like needles; every time I think of them, my heart aches…
Recently, the market seems to have shown some activity. After a significant drop early Saturday morning, it appears that the strength of this rebound is quite impressive. Yesterday, Sunday, the market did not fluctuate as expected but instead began a new rebound process, with an increase of over 5000 points throughout the day. This strength is indeed quite remarkable. From the low point of the crash to now, it has rebounded by more than 15,000 points. Currently, the market is operating around 115,000, which is almost back to a normal market operation before the crash. Therefore, it can be said that the market is starting to return to the right track, and the impact of the previous crash will gradually diminish. In terms of operations, due to the significant volatility on Saturday, short-term operations are not very stable, so only some quick trades on oversold conditions were made, with no significant profits realized.
Returning to today's market, after the weekend's activity, let's take a look at the liquidity distribution. With the rise in the market, it turns out that bulls couldn't resist entering the market in large numbers. Currently, from the short-term liquidity distribution, it is evident that there is a more significant distribution of bulls below, with a broader range of liquidation positions. As we mentioned on Saturday, the short-term bears above have been liquidated, and the remaining bear liquidation intensity is mainly around 116,500. The short-term bulls are below 114,000, with plenty of bull liquidity also present in the 109,000 area. Based on this distribution, it remains to be seen whether the market will use the upward momentum to liquidate the remaining bear liquidity before reversing to liquidate the bulls, as the newly gathered bull liquidity below is also quite tempting. Regarding spot premiums, influenced by the influx of funds, the current premium rate is continuously rising. However, in terms of the increase, it is still weaker compared to the previous surge, indicating a decrease in the strength of fund inflows, and this round of rebound is likely to be much weaker.
On the technical side, although yesterday's daily chart showed a large bullish candle, in the short-term structure, it is still under pressure from the short-term MA7 line at 117,000. The rebound from the bottom has not yet reached a strong market trend. In terms of technical indicators, MACD entered a bearish cycle after the crash. Due to the strong pullback previously, the current rebound has not changed the MACD bearish cycle, which continues to operate within the bearish cycle. However, there are signs of a potential reversal at the high of the bearish cycle. If the upward momentum continues, it is likely that there will be an indicator repair on the daily chart.
On the four-hour level, influenced by the short-term rebound, there is currently a short-term bullish rebound trend structure, with continuous bullish candles rising steadily from the bottom. The current short-term resistance is near the MA120 line at 116,800. If it continues to rise, it is likely to test this position to see if the resistance is effective. In terms of technical indicators, MACD has finally entered a bullish cycle. The previous MACD bearish cycle lasted too long, so it will be interesting to see how this bullish cycle repairs. According to general rules, this cycle may not last very long, and the bullish cycle's high position reversal is likely to end soon.
In terms of operations, for today, it is best to wait for a continuation of the upward trend, ideally clearing the remaining short-term bear liquidity above. It would be appropriate to consider shorting above 116,500. The distribution of bull liquidity below is relatively broad. In the short term, if a short-term bull liquidity liquidation occurs, it is hard to determine what position it could reach. Therefore, for long positions, we will decide based on the market's performance today, and if it is below 114,000, we will reconsider.
【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market conditions change in real-time. The information may be outdated, and strategies may not be timely. Specific operations should follow real-time strategies. Feel free to contact and discuss the market.】
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