U.S. Eastern Time Zone Event on October 11, 2025 - A sudden market crash occurred on the 10th, which was supposed to be a continuation of the bull market in October.
As the three major U.S. stock indices collectively fell, cryptocurrency asset prices plummeted sharply: Bitcoin (BTC) dropped from a high of $122,000 to $101,500, a decline of over 16%; Ethereum (ETH) fell by 18%, hitting a low of $3,900; altcoins like Solana (SOL) performed even worse, with some assets losing over 50% of their market value.
This "liquidity shock" not only cleared a large number of leveraged positions but also sparked heated discussions among key opinion leaders (KOLs) on platform X: Is this a normal cleansing in a bull market, or a warning signal of a cycle peak? This article summarizes the events based on popular discussions on X and consolidates KOLs' views on the subsequent market trends. There are clear market divergences, and investors need to assess cautiously.
1. Event Review: Trade War Concerns Trigger Leverage Chain Reaction
The crash stemmed from a combination of factors. The #CryptoCrash topic on X has garnered over 100 million views, with KOL opinions becoming market barometers.
● U.S. President Trump announced that the U.S. will impose a 100% tariff on China starting November 1, instantly igniting panic among global investors.
○ The threat of a renewed trade war shattered the market's previous calm, prompting investors to sell off risk assets and turn to safe havens like gold and government bonds.
● Meanwhile, the U.S. federal government "shutdown" entered its tenth day, with the Trump administration beginning large-scale permanent layoffs of federal employees.
○ This action broke the precedent of government "shutdowns" in modern U.S. history, marking an escalation in the standoff between President Trump and other Republicans against the Democrats.
● The reflection of macro data further intensified market concerns about the economic outlook:
○ The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for October is 55, the lowest since May.
○ Consumers expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 4.6% next year.
○ About 63% of respondents indicated they expect the unemployment rate to rise next year.
2. KOL Opinion Consolidation: Bulls Prevail, Bears Warn of Cycle Risks
On platform X, among the highly upvoted posts, about 60% of bullish opinions view the crash as a "purification" of the bull market; around 30% are bearish, emphasizing peak signals; the rest provide neutral analyses. The following are core KOL opinions organized by faction.
Bullish Camp: Viewing as a Buying Opportunity, Expecting Bull Market Acceleration
● @OmarRk1992 (Senior Investor, Focused on KDA/SYS):
Similar to the mining ban incident in October 2021, a rebound is expected in mid-October after panic selling, with the bull market potentially lasting six months and multiple currencies reaching new all-time highs. Strategy: Monitor key BTC levels, use pullbacks to increase positions, and remain calm.
● @Godmodon4 (Bee, DeFi Enthusiast):
A typical healthy correction with strong fundamentals—halving supply reduction, institutional entry (e.g., Morgan Stanley's crypto products), and historical advantages in October. Suggests HODLers buy, and leveraged users learn lessons, stabilizing after short-term fluctuations.
● @BitcoinOnwards (On-chain Data Analyst):
Realized losses are below April lows, with ETF holdings exceeding 1.2 million BTC; this is not a crash but a controlled explosion. Tariffs have amplified leverage, and after system stabilization, we enter a price discovery phase. Support levels: BTC 114k-118k, ETH 4200; maintain or rebound over the weekend.
● @NextDecadeAlpha (Value Investor):
The recovery process is healthy, and no one dares to short the market, providing upward acceleration. This is the best catalyst for the bull market.
● @btcycle007 (Cycle Model Expert):
After extreme liquidations, the golden bull model is activated; new BTC highs in November, altcoins recovering in the short term over several weeks. History shows that 80% of crashes are followed by rapid rebounds.
● @HODLGENTLEMAN (HODL Advocate):
Some altcoins have dropped 95% but have now rebounded 5-6 times. The most brutal drop, but a V-shaped reversal is imminent after traders clear their positions.
● @Ali_Mooll (Blockchain Strategist):
The largest liquidation in history will reset the rebound of the past decade. Smart money is quietly accumulating.
● @Mrbullemmy (Asset Hunter):
Altcoins have been declining for over a month, but this is a breakthrough after previous fluctuations; the bull market is not over.
● @rudyislive_ (Growth Strategist):
This is not a crash but a consolidation before a beast mode; BTC at 150k by year-end, ETH staking outperforming traditional finance, BNB Meme and privacy coin ZEC as opportunities, altseason has begun. Bullish logic: After leverage is cleared, the market will de-bubble, and expectations of Fed rate cuts (New York Fed's Williams to cut again by year-end) will catalyze a rebound in November.
Bearish Camp: Clear Peak Signals, Beware of Bear Market Arrival
● @mkuegi (DeFi Analyst):
Based on cycle models, this is a peak; if confirmed, BTC could drop another 35-50%, and altcoins may face extinction. There may be a final 1-2 months of topping, and a bear market will arrive after the cycle fails. Suggests preparing for dual scenarios.
● @XRPJsB (XRP Community Leader):
The next historical low point will be October 5, 2026.
● @plopinou (Independent Chart Analyst):
After massive liquidations, the market may consolidate for weeks/months, worsening participant trauma. SOL breaks high, ETH double top fails, AVAX triangle breaks, CRV crashes, BTC hunts June bulls. Similar to December 2021, if next Sunday’s candlestick is weak, BTC will enter a bear market for several months.
● @PiccoloCAG (Trader):
If the bull market continues this month, we need a wick today + a green candlestick in October. Capital flow towards altcoins will lead to real sell-offs later this year.
● @macryptonite (Cross-Disciplinary Analyst):
A total wipeout could happen at any time, but if this is the final low point, it will be the most obvious crash in history—altseason is missing this massive shock.
● @Jemsrock95 (Decentralization Advocate):
Decentralization + privacy coins will prevail; this crash is far less than the slaughter of centralized assets in the coming months/years. Bears focus on technical breakdowns and residual leverage risks, worrying that an escalation in the trade war (Trump's "oil price at $2" promise may push inflation) will drag down risk assets.
Neutral Observations: Data-Driven, Emphasizing Volatility Management
● @shahidaasi (Digital Solutions Expert):
Market capitalization evaporated by $250 billion, with BTC down 16%, ETH 18%, and altcoins over 30%. Tariffs + $10 billion in liquidations ignited the situation, which has now stabilized, but volatility has increased.
● @KeyNewsEN (KeyNews, DJDOG Foundation):
Market capitalization decreased by $250 billion, with BTC down 5.23%, ETH 10.49%, and SOL 9.87%. Liquidations exceeded $1 billion, with $250 million flowing out of ETFs. History shows rebounds similar to after the 2022 Terra crash, with a more mature regulatory environment in 2025. Focus on FOMC; DeFi/NFT may drive recovery.
● @ColinTCrypto (Colin Talks Crypto, Cycle Forecaster):
BTC dominance continues, altcoins lagging; ETH/BTC will soar after another drop. Plan: Profit by exchanging ALT/BTC, with altcoins flipping by year-end/early 2026, capturing the final parabolic move.
3. Market Insights: Leverage Risks Highlighted, Institutional Dominance Taking Shape
This event is not just about price fluctuations, but also an ecological warning. Leverage DEXs need to strengthen risk control, meme coin bubbles have burst, and blue-chip assets are returning to the mainstream;
The macro environment will determine Q4 trends. The Fed's rate cut path and trade disputes are running parallel;
KOL divergences reflect a maturing market. Bulls rely on history and fundamentals, while bears focus on technicals and macro factors.
October Shock, Potentially a Bull-Bear Divide—Position Holders Await the Outcome.
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