Event Review 📉

Recently, the BTC market experienced a wave of intense fluctuations, with multiple messages indicating that the market underwent a sharp decline, liquidations, and panic selling within just one hour. Starting from 04:13, market sentiment gradually turned cold; subsequently, macro policy news followed one after another, especially the announcement by Trump that a 100% tariff would be imposed on Chinese products starting November 1, which exacerbated the uncertainty in the global financial market. Meanwhile, high-leverage trading led to a chain of liquidations, with whales and institutional funds fleeing the market, causing the BTC price to repeatedly fall below important support levels and experience a drop of over 10% in a short period.

Timeline ⏱

• 04:13 – The market began to show fluctuations, with some analysts pointing out that Bitcoin had recently dropped nearly 10%, influenced by international trade frictions and tariff rumors, prompting investors to seek safety.
• 04:40 – BTC price was around $116,800 to $117,100, with a drop of 3.73% within just 16 minutes, indicating strong selling pressure.
• 04:40 to 05:20 – The price continued to decline, breaking through key levels of 112K, 111K, 109K, and 107K, with a cumulative drop of 13.10%. Significant capital outflow triggered a series of liquidations due to high-leverage positions.
• 05:00 – Major macro news was released, with Trump announcing a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1, rapidly increasing market panic due to policy uncertainty.
• 05:24–05:28 – Trump's evening tweets and further policy confirmations triggered more forced liquidations, with the market continuously reporting large liquidation and clearing data, reaching a peak of panic.
• 05:40 – After intense fluctuations, BTC saw a brief rebound, with the price rising to about $111,360, but overall market sentiment remained sluggish, and volatility continued.

Reason Analysis 🔍

The market crash was mainly influenced by the following two core factors:

• External Macroeconomic and Policy Shocks

• Escalation of international trade frictions: Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods exacerbated global market uncertainty.

• Political and economic risks: Uncertainty from the U.S. government and rising global risk aversion led to widespread selling of risk assets.

• Chain Liquidations Triggered by High-Leverage Trading

• A large number of institutions and retail investors in the market adopted high-leverage operations, which triggered forced liquidations and bankruptcies once market volatility intensified.

• Large funds and whales accelerated selling pressure by exploiting market panic, further worsening liquidity and causing prices to plummet.

Technical Analysis 📊

(Based on Binance USDT perpetual contract 45-minute candlestick data, BTC/USDT trading pair)

• Price and Moving Average Status

• Currently, BTC price is operating along the lower Bollinger Band, in an overall downtrend.

• The price is below MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50, and EMA5/10/20/50/120, with moving averages showing a clear bearish arrangement, indicating a strong downward trend.

• Trading Volume and Indicator Signals

• Recent trading volume surged (increased by over 602.96%), indicating that the market is in a state of panic selling, but the significantly increased trading volume has not formed support.

• The RSI indicator is in the oversold area, and some TD Sequential bullish Setup (9) signals may indicate a short-term rebound opportunity, but the overall bearish sentiment has not changed.

• Capital Flow and Liquidations

• In the past hour, there were $300 million in liquidations across the network, with long positions accounting for 81%; at the same time, there was a severe net outflow of funds (nearly $1.6 billion in net outflow in the past hour), further confirming the dominance of selling pressure.

Market Outlook 🚀

Despite a brief rebound, BTC is currently still in a state of deep panic and high selling pressure:

• Short-term Rebound Possible

• Due to the RSI being in the oversold area and some technical indicators showing reversal signals, the market may see a local rebound after experiencing a sharp decline. Traders should pay attention to key moving average support and TD Sequential reversal signals, but must strictly control risks.

• Long-term Uncertainty Remains

• Macroeconomic policy risks and global trade tensions have not been resolved, and the pressure released by high-leverage liquidations is unlikely to dissipate completely in the short term. The market may still experience significant volatility, and investors should remain cautious to avoid excessive positions.

• Risk Management is Crucial

• For high-leverage investors, timely profit-taking, reducing positions, or building positions in batches have become the most effective risk control measures; at the same time, monitoring the movements of large whales and changes in liquidity can help in positioning for bottom signals in advance.

In summary, the current BTC market is in a storm of plummeting prices triggered by policy shocks and high-leverage trading. In the short term, prices are expected to achieve a technical rebound in the oversold area, but external uncertainties remain high. Investors need to closely monitor subsequent macro news and changes in market trading volume, adjusting strategies in a timely manner to cope with potential severe fluctuations.

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