There are many things in this world that we think we can continue doing tomorrow; thus, when we temporarily set them aside or turn away, all we have in our hearts is the hope of reuniting tomorrow. Sometimes, we may not even feel this little hope, yet tomorrow actually does not exist, because many people and many things have already come to an end today!
As a holiday comes to an end, the market for Bitcoin has once again broken through historical highs, with many reasons behind it, including various positive news that stimulated the market to rise continuously, bringing the historical high to above 126,000. Before the holiday, we planned to use the breakthrough at 118,000 as the trend reversal point and laid out short positions, hoping to form resistance at the previous rebound high. However, 118,000 did not actually create pressure, and under the influence of positive news, the market surged strongly, leading to the ultimate failure of our short plan. As of now, the market has seen a slight pullback from the high, dropping to around 120,600, and is currently in a high-level consolidation.
Returning to today's market, from the current distribution of liquidity, it is still very clear that there is significantly more bullish liquidity below in the short term, as we are currently in a strong market. The previous pullback did not break below 120,000, which keeps the bullish confidence intact. Now that the market is above 122,000, combined with the high leverage of chasing long positions, the bullish liquidity below is higher than the bearish liquidity above in the short term. In the short-term distribution, the intensity of bearish liquidity liquidation is mainly located in the 124,500-125,200 range. If the bullish market rebounds again in the short term, it would be appropriate to liquidate the bearish liquidity in this area. The bullish liquidity below is widely distributed, and if we are to see a bullish liquidity liquidation market, it would need to break below 120,000 to effectively liquidate most of the short-term bullish liquidity below. Next, we will see how the market chooses to move; if it goes up first, we will wait for a closing action to appear, which will likely lead to a reverse liquidation. The spot premium situation is in a positive premium, but after a pullback, the market has shown a slight rebound, while the premium is still experiencing a slight decline, indicating that the buying funds from this small rebound above 120,000 are not substantial. If the premium continues to decline, we will need to consider the issue of funds selling at high levels.
On the technical side, the daily chart has started to show a certain pullback at high levels, with the current price near the MA7 line. The MA7 line is slightly turning, and in the short term, we need to see if the closing price can remain above the moving average. In terms of technical indicators, the MACD is currently at a high level and is starting to converge, while the RSI has also pulled back from the previous overbought position, still operating at a high level. The daily chart is in a high-level consolidation, and it is still some distance from confirming a pullback. In the short term, the daily trend needs to wait for the time cycle to complete, and after reaching a high level, we need to wait for a pullback to repair the indicators.
On the four-hour level, looking at the historical high as a four-hour cycle, after the first pullback to around 120,600, there was a small rebound, with the rebound high at around 124,200. Currently, we are watching how the next four hours will unfold, whether it will give a high point to continue the rebound or start to pull back. If it breaks below the low of 120,600, it will confirm the short-term market trend. In terms of technical indicators, the MACD is in a bearish cycle, and after the rebound, it has formed an upward movement, with expectations of entering a bullish cycle, and the high point appears within the bearish cycle. Therefore, for the upcoming market, there may not be strong continuity in either an upward or downward movement.
In terms of operations, if the market pulls back again, we will consider entering long positions below 120,000. After another rebound, we will still follow the plan and wait to reach the liquidation area of 124,500-125,200 before executing short positions. For any other fluctuations in the market, we will arrange accordingly in real-time.
【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and the market changes in real-time. The information may be outdated, and strategies may not be timely. Specific operations should be based on real-time strategies. Feel free to contact us for discussions on the market.】
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