Master Discusses Hot Topics:
The holiday is over, and let's start with some interpretations of this week's news. The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes this time are just for show, with nothing new to report. However, the market really buys into this; U.S. stocks are like they've been injected with adrenaline, dropping and then rallying, directly hitting new highs.
As a result, Bitcoin has also surged above 123K. To put it bluntly, as long as U.S. stocks are strong, all risk assets are riding the wave. Minute-level data clearly shows that Bitcoin moves in tandem with Nasdaq futures, and the real driving force comes from American funds after the U.S. stock market opens.
On the other side, the bill has died in the womb, and the shutdown continues. It is estimated that we won't see any resolution until 24 days later. The Federal Reserve members are now like blind men trying to grasp an elephant, unable to see any decent macro data, relying solely on guesswork.
However, the Bitcoin market is quite stable; on-chain data shows that the chip structure hasn't dispersed at all. Panic sellers have all sold off, while long-term big holders remain unmoved. Unless a black swan event occurs, it won't be easy to trigger a collapse in the short-term macro landscape, of course, I'm talking about the trend.
But after Bitcoin has continuously surged to new highs, technically it also needs to take a breather. The noise about CPI and employment from the outside has stirred the Bitcoin market and U.S. stocks to pull back together these past two days. The holiday effect is gone, and the rise isn't as appealing anymore.
Currently, the market isn't suitable for chasing highs; the smart play is to place low buy orders and patiently wait for opportunities. The trend hasn't turned bearish yet, so it's also possible to place some high sell orders for defense. In simple terms, both long and short positions can be taken, but the positions should be light and actions quick.
Recently, I won't talk about any oscillating neutrality; my overall direction is bullish, with no second option. What I'm waiting for now is the weekly top, which should be around the end of November or early December. By then, if Bitcoin has peaked, I will firmly stick to my position without wavering.
Returning to today's market, the Asian session is pulling back again. I see the short-term range oscillating between 120K and 120.3K; if it oscillates for a long time, it might expand to the 118K range. The pullback after this surge to 125K is clearly much more stable than the two waves in July and August; the inability to drop further is the best signal.
For the near term, just focus on two downward observation ranges: one is the oscillation range I mentioned above. The other is from 117.5K to 118.6K. The time window is around October 12 and October 20; as long as we see a bottom signal nearby, we can confirm that this wave of decline is over.
Ethereum isn't quiet either, testing the 4440 support again. The range from 4440 to 4380 is a buffer zone; if it doesn't break down here, you don't need to look for new lows. As long as it stabilizes, this is a good place to short.
Ethereum is currently in a fierce turnover phase, with early entrants exiting. Those who bought in the 2000 to 3000 range are taking profits during the oscillation, waiting for new buyers to take over. The average holding price of Ethereum is being gradually pushed up, and the entire rhythm is mirroring Bitcoin's turnover.
Looking back to June when Ethereum was at 2300, I mentioned that it would definitely reach 4300 and 4800 this year, and now it has reached those levels, just short of the ultimate target of 5300.
At this pace, it’s likely to touch that target by the end of the year. By then, those who exited now will be crying to chase the highs again. The market is just like that, but only such a market can create more opportunities!
Master Looks at Trends:
Resistance Level Reference:
Second Resistance Level: 123500
First Resistance Level: 122500
Support Level Reference:
First Support Level: 121000
Second Support Level: 119600
After reaching a new high, Bitcoin has finally welcomed a decent pullback. Don't panic about this drop; it's a normal technical correction. The key now is to observe whether the bottom can hold before considering entry.
Currently, the area around 121K and the 200-day moving average is a key short-term support zone. However, be aware that Bitcoin has already broken below the upward trend line in the short term and has formed a large bearish candle; we need to first see the strength of the recovery.
If 121K cannot hold, the second line of defense is at 119.6K. Once it breaks, the short-term downside space will open up. The upper resistance at 123.5K is strong, where the 60MA and 120MA two medium to long-term lines intersect; without trading volume, there won't be a significant breakthrough.
Currently in a pullback and consolidation phase, it is recommended to wait and see, and only consider going long when a short-term bottom signal appears on a lower timeframe (like 15 minutes). Even if there is a rebound, the 20MA on the hourly level is pressing down from above, and a short-term pullback could happen at any time.
The first resistance at 122.5K was originally support but has now turned into resistance. If it rebounds to this level and gets knocked down, be cautious as it may lead to an N-shaped decline.
The second resistance at 123.5K is a strong resistance zone, the ghost gate where the 60MA and 120MA overlap. Unless there is a significant increase in volume or external positive news, it won't break through.
The first support at 121K held quite steady during yesterday's consolidation. If it fails to hold, the market will experience panic selling, easily triggering a stop-loss wave. Remember to pay attention to the movement of the 200MA.
The second support at 119.6K; if 121K cannot be maintained, this is a good position for short-term bottom fishing and rebound, but be cautious, as it should only be a short play, and don't go against the trend.
Today's market is quite typical; the U.S. market surged, and after a rise in the early morning, everything was given back. The short-term trend has already broken; don't think a single bullish candle can save the day.
What to focus on during the day is simple: treat the range from 121K to 123K as a box for trading, high selling and low buying, with light positions and flexibility; don't be overly long or overly short.
After reaching a new high, the price immediately turned around, indicating that there is real selling pressure above. To break through new highs again, there must be a new explosive point and strong momentum; otherwise, it can only grind sideways, slowly building strength.
10.9 Master’s Wave Strategy:
Long Entry Reference: Buy in batches in the 116900-121000 range, Target: 122500-123500
Short Entry Reference: Not currently applicable
If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performative players; today they screenshot long positions, and tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "catch the top and bottom every time," but in reality, it's all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don't be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!
This article is exclusively planned and published by Master Chen (WeChat public account: Coin God Master Chen). If you want to learn more about real-time investment strategies, solutions, spot trading, short, medium, and long-term contract trading techniques, operational skills, and knowledge about candlesticks, you can join Master Chen for learning and communication. A free experience group for fans has been opened, along with community live broadcasts and other quality experience projects!
Warm reminder: This article is only written by Master Chen on the official account (as shown above), and any other advertisements at the end of the article and in the comments are unrelated to the author!! Please be cautious in discerning authenticity, thank you for reading.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
