Good morning, crypto friends ☀, I am Wang Yibo! Die-hard fans check in 👍, like to make big money 🍗🍗🌹🌹! Today we focus on real-time dynamics in the crypto world, with US stocks hitting new highs and ongoing favorable external factors like the Federal Reserve's policy divergence, the crypto market is shifting from consolidation to rebound. Bitcoin has broken through key levels, and Ethereum is also experiencing a corrective rise, with strong performances from coins like BN-B and O-KB. It is essential to closely follow real-time market conditions and accurately seize the best trading opportunities.
- External Market: New Highs in US Stocks + Federal Reserve Signals Inject Strong Confidence into the Crypto Market
On Wednesday, US stocks closed impressively, becoming a significant driver for the crypto market's rebound: although the Dow Jones slightly fell, the S&P 500 index rose by 0.58% and the Nasdaq by 1.1%, both indices reached new closing highs, significantly increasing market risk appetite. Tech stocks performed particularly well, with AMD (AMD.O) soaring 11.3% to reach a historical high, with a total market value exceeding $380 billion; Nvidia (NVDA.O) rose 2.2%, and Micron Technology (MU.O) increased by 5.8%. The strong performance of the tech sector indirectly boosted the activity of crypto assets closely related to technology.
More critically, the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes released policy signals: last month, the Fed approved its first interest rate cut of the year, but officials had significant disagreements on the extent of future rate cuts, and the government shutdown led to an "economic data vacuum," further exacerbating policy uncertainty. However, from market expectations, the CME "FedWatch" shows that the probability of maintaining interest rates in October is only 5.9%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is as high as 94.6%; the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December has reached 80.1%. The warming expectations for easing provide a favorable liquidity environment for risk assets (including cryptocurrencies), directly pushing the crypto market from previous consolidation patterns to a rebound.
- Mainstream Coin Dynamics: Bitcoin Stabilizes at Key Levels, Ethereum Faces Resistance in Corrective Rebound
(A) Bitcoin: Breaking Through the Consolidation Range, Bullish Trend Continues
Recently, Bitcoin's performance has been steady. After dropping to a low of 120,543 and holding support, the market entered a rebound mode yesterday: during the day, it consolidated sideways, digesting previous volatility pressure; in the evening, it slightly retreated to 121,608 before rebounding again, testing a high of 124,138, and then entering a high-level consolidation phase. As of now, the coin price continues to consolidate, but the overall focus is steadily rising.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's bullish advantage is clear: on the daily chart, it has broken through the previous consolidation range, firmly standing above 123,000, with a clear upward trend. If it can maintain this price level, it will further open up space above; the four-hour chart also shows strong performance, with the coin price stabilizing above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. As long as it does not break below 123,000, there is a possibility of testing new highs again. It is worth noting that neither the daily nor weekly charts show signs of structural reversal or trend reversal; only the upward pace has slowed compared to before, and the overall trend control remains in the hands of the bulls, with further upward movement expected to rely on the support of 123,000.
(B) Ethereum: Corrective Rebound Under Pressure, Key Resistance Yet to Break
Ethereum has recently experienced a "sharp drop followed by a recovery." It quickly fell from a high of 4,753, but the market gradually warmed up yesterday: during the day, it consolidated sideways in small rhythms, and after a low of 4,410 at noon, it began to rebound; in the evening, volatility increased, first spiking to 4,521, then retreating to 4,435, and rebounding again, reaching a high of 4,556 at midnight, ultimately entering a high-level consolidation. Currently, the coin price is alternating between small bearish and bullish movements, in a sideways consolidation phase.
From a technical perspective, Ethereum still faces pressure: on the four-hour chart, the coin price previously fell below the middle band due to a large bearish candle. Although there was a rebound, it has repeatedly touched the middle band before retreating, with the K-line forming long upper shadows, indicating strong resistance at the four-hour middle band; if it cannot effectively break through this limit, it may continue the previous retracement trend after consolidation. It is important to clarify that the current rebound in Ethereum is more of a technical recovery after a significant previous drop, and a clear trend direction has not yet formed, maintaining an overall weak pattern. Investors should be cautious of the risk of a pullback after the rebound and wait for key price breakout signals.
- Operational Suggestions: Closely Follow Real-Time Dynamics, Rationally Seize Opportunities
Currently, the crypto market is driven by favorable external factors, showing an overall rebound trend, but there is a clear differentiation among different coins. Operations should focus on "grabbing the strong and abandoning the weak, controlling risks": Pay attention to strong coins: BN-B, O-KB, and other coins have recently performed strongly. You can closely follow real-time market conditions and make light positions during pullbacks to seize short-term volatility opportunities, but strict stop-loss measures should be set to avoid chasing high risks. Bitcoin operations: Use 123,000 as the core support level. If the coin price pulls back to this range and shows stabilization signals, you can make a light long position, targeting 124,138 and above; if it unexpectedly breaks below 123,000, timely stop-loss is necessary to avoid pullback risks. Ethereum operations: Focus on the four-hour middle band resistance. If the coin price breaks through the middle band and stabilizes, you can try a small long position, targeting 4,556; if it remains constrained by the middle band and shows signs of retreat, you can make a light short position near the middle band during the rebound, targeting 4,410, and further down to the 4,300-4,200 range if it breaks below. Risk Warning: Although the current market shows a rebound, uncertainties still exist, and excessive trading should be avoided; also pay attention to the subsequent dynamics of US stocks and the Federal Reserve, as fluctuations in the external market may transmit to the crypto market, and prepare for risk hedging in advance.
- Conclusion: Real-Time Tracking of Hotspots, Accurately Capturing Opportunities
Today, the crypto market is supported by favorable external factors, with mainstream coins showing differentiation. Bitcoin's bullish trend is clear, while Ethereum's corrective rebound is under pressure. Moving forward, it is essential to continue tracking US stock dynamics, Federal Reserve policies, and key price breakout situations for coins. I will also share real-time market conditions and operational ideas promptly. Crypto friends can keep up with the rhythm, rationally layout, and seize the best trading opportunities during the consolidation rebound! Remember to like and follow, and let’s move steadily forward in the crypto world together 🍗🍗🌹🌹!
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