Reviewing this week's market, Bitcoin rose from around 108,900 to 123,860 before retracing to around 122,000 and starting to fluctuate. Ethereum rose from around 3,970 to 4,589 before retracing to around 4,500 and starting to fluctuate.

This week, the most important news, originally scheduled to be released this Friday, the non-farm payroll data, has been delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown, resulting in no impactful news this week.

Considering the current market situation, on the news front: the U.S. government shutdown has increased market uncertainties, and the delay in the non-farm payroll data has caused the market to remain stagnant. The Federal Reserve's decision on whether to continue cutting interest rates in October is also worth paying attention to. On the technical side, looking back at the trends in October over the past few years, the monthly chart shows that October has almost always closed positively, marking the start of the last quarter. After experiencing a significant drop last week, most of the profitable long positions have been cleared, meeting the conditions for a continued rise to new highs.

Regarding Bitcoin:

After retracing to around 107,000 in September, it found support and began to move upward. From the daily chart perspective, the current retracement position coincides with the top formed at the beginning of the year, indicating that Bitcoin is still in a bullish run. Based on the current market situation, it is highly likely that this year the bulls will push the price up to around 160,000. Therefore, those holding spot can continue to hold and observe, but in terms of contracts, we definitely cannot hold long-term. Personally, I still favor entering long positions during retracements. Next week, pay close attention to the gains and losses around the 120,000 level for Bitcoin. As for the upper resistance, there is currently no need to focus on it; as long as it breaks through the 124,500 level, we can only judge the short-term high points based on the market's actual situation.

As for intraday trading, since the weekend market will not have significant fluctuations, one can take advantage of the low points during the retracement to enter long positions. The entry range for long positions is between 120,000 and 120,000, with a key defensive position at around 191,000.

Regarding Ethereum:

From the current daily chart perspective, Ethereum has shown a trend of restarting after experiencing two months of fluctuations. Last week, it confirmed support at the 3,800 level and cleared out the following long positions above, leading to a rapid rebound. It has now returned to the fluctuation range of 4,000 to 4,700. However, considering the news in October and the current market trends, it is highly likely that Ethereum will reach new highs in October, and 5,000 is definitely not the target for this wave; as long as it breaks through 5,000 in October, it is highly likely to challenge 6,000. Next week, focus on the breakout situation of the 4,000 to 4,700 fluctuation range, and operate similarly to Bitcoin by entering long positions during retracements. Key support levels to watch are 4,380 and 4,250; as long as these two levels hold, moving above 5,000 will be inevitable.

For short-term trading, the range of 4,400 to 4,350 is a good entry point for long positions. The upper defensive position can be adjusted at any time to secure profits, and if it breaks below the 4,350 level, wait to find an entry point above 4,250.

Trading Strategy:

Enter long during retracements.

Do not argue with the market, and do not have the obsession of "it should go up." When the market trend contradicts your judgment, the first thing to do is to acknowledge the mistake and manage risk, rather than looking for evidence to prove you are right.

In a deteriorating bull market, even lions can make money; only pigs will be slaughtered.

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