"Is the 'Top Escape Master' selling off?"

CN
7 hours ago

Author: Seed.eth

The Ethereum Foundation has sold coins again.

Overnight, the foundation announced it would sell 1,000 ETH (approximately $4.5 million) through the TWAP feature of the decentralized trading platform CoWSwap, exchanging it for stablecoins to support "research, funding, and donation work."

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If this sounds familiar, it's because they just sold coins last month. That time it was a larger amount—10,000 ETH, worth over $43 million.

As a result, the community erupted again. Some joked, "The master of selling at the top is back online."

Why does everyone keep an eye on the foundation's coin sales?

In fact, the Ethereum Foundation's coin sales are discussed almost every year. The reason is simple—they hold too much ETH, and each sale amounts to millions of dollars. Moreover, each time they sell coins, it often happens when the market is doing well, which inevitably leads to thoughts of "cashing out at a high."

The community jokingly refers to the foundation as the "master of selling at the top," and this is not without reason:

  • During the 2021 bull market, they sold a batch of ETH;

  • In the 2022 bear market, they hardly moved;

  • Since 2024, they have repeatedly sold during ETH rebounds.

Of course, from the foundation's perspective, these actions have reasonable explanations: they need to provide substantial funding for ecological projects, hackathons, research, and personnel every year, so exchanging for stablecoins for expenses is indeed necessary.

But the market is driven by emotions. Regardless of how rational the foundation's motives are, each coin sale triggers discussions about "Is it time to sell at a high again?"

On-chain signals: ETH is "quietly running out"

It is worth noting that while the foundation is selling coins, on-chain data shows that the overall supply of ETH is decreasing. Currently, the ETH reserves on exchanges are at a historical low, with only about 9.2 million coins.

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This means that the amount of ETH available for immediate sale in the market is becoming increasingly scarce.

Analyst Leon Waidmann summarized three similar situations in ETH's history:

  • 2020-2021: Reserves dropped from 16 million to 10 million, and ETH soared from $400 to $4,800;

  • 2022-2023: Reserves fell from 15 million to 9 million, and ETH rose from $1,100 to $4,000;

  • Now: Reserves are again around 9 million, with prices having rebounded to around $4,500, a 10%+ increase over the past week.

Waidmann used a vivid metaphor: "It's like a bathtub filling with water; the water level doesn't drop because new water is flowing in (buying pressure is taking over). Once the sellers run out and demand surges, the water will suddenly overflow."

In other words, the current market is in a stage of "supply exhaustion + demand buildup": seemingly calm, but actually gathering strength.

Macroeconomic environment: Policy shifts may become key catalysts

On the other hand, the macroeconomic environment is also changing. Due to the U.S. government shutdown delaying the release of September's non-farm payroll data (NFP), the market expects that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice this year.

Coinbase's research team wrote in their latest report: "The interest rate market has priced in two 25 basis point rate cuts. The weakening dollar and record-high gold prices have diminished the appeal of cash assets, benefiting the crypto market."

This means that if funds flow back into risk assets, Ethereum could be among the first beneficiaries.
ETH ETFs have seen over $1 billion in net inflows for four consecutive days, and whale wallets have also shown a noticeable increase in buying.

Technical analysis: Key breakout level at $4,800

The warming macro environment provides momentum for the market, while technical trends offer an important window to observe the strength of this momentum.

From a technical perspective, Ethereum is currently at a critical decision point. After successfully breaking through the $4,500 resistance level and reaching a two-week high, the price is facing pressure from a descending trend line formed since August 24. The outcome of breaking through this key resistance level will determine the subsequent trend; if it can effectively break through, the next target will be $4,800; conversely, a pullback may occur.

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In the past 24 hours, the Ethereum futures market experienced $123.8 million in liquidations, with $7.3 million from short positions. Technical indicators show a mixed situation: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the neutral line, maintaining bullish momentum, while the Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch) has entered the overbought zone.

In terms of key support levels, the $4,100 level will become an important defense line. If this position is broken, the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) will provide subsequent support. It is essential to closely monitor the trend line breakout; successfully holding above the resistance line will open up new upward space, otherwise, a technical adjustment may be faced.

Therefore, in the coming days, everyone can pay attention to several key points and risks:

  • Support levels: If ETH breaks key support (such as around $4,100 or $4,000), it may trigger a chain reaction of declines;

  • Buying initiation points: If any institutions or DAT (Digital Asset Treasury) start large-scale buying again, it will be a catalyst for market movement;

  • Changes in macro factors: Federal Reserve interest rate policies, dollar strength, regulatory policies, etc., remain key factors driving market direction.

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